Richard White
Senior Member
If that happens I'll be able to give you a regional perspective.
I'll be in Hungary from June 2nd to 25th.
I'm actually debating bringing my iodine pills with me. Just in case.
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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War
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If that happens I'll be able to give you a regional perspective.
I'll be in Hungary from June 2nd to 25th.
I'm actually debating bringing my iodine pills with me. Just in case.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
The speculation of the coming Ukrainian vengeance has to be playing on the minds that of the Russian conscripts and the lower rank officers standing beside them. They have to be wondering why the hell are we in Ukraine? To die, presumably.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Honestly, I think it mostly won't impact anything day to day in Europe. Though I'm sure a lot of people will be following along.
Also, Orban's Hungary isn't very Ukraine friendly.....
Your choice. I'm not at all worried about a nuclear exchange or escalation to NATO involvement.
Ukrainians are reporting an increase in surrenders. So there's definitely something to this. But for the most part, I think most of us in the West (me included) vastly underestimate how brainwashed and willing to die Russian soldiers are. They are not even close to the point of questioning their loyalty to Putin.
Richard White
Senior Member
Agreed, which is why I am going there this summer.
True which is why I likely will not bring them. As long as Hungary does not decide to conscript its citizens while I am there I will be fine. I am a Hungarian citizen with a full slate of ID, I would prefer not to be caught at Ground Zero when WW3 breaks out.
No doubt there are two choices in Russia. Die at the hands of the Ukrainians or die by orders of Putin for not fighting in Ukraine.
Rock meet hard place.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
I’d take the third choice. Walk up to the nearest Ukrainian and surrender.
kEiThZ
Superstar
It's easy to say this. But you're coming from the perspective of someone who grew up and lives in the West, where notions of personal freedom are much higher than concepts like obligation and duty to the motherland. You also know the Ukrainians treat prisoners humanely. They've been told the Ukrainians are Nazis who torture and kill all prisoners. Imagine your worldview formed substantially by the insane stuff on Russian TV. Would you still have the same views?
There are some who just fear enough for their lives in combat that they realize it's just better to roll the dice on surrendering. They aren't a significant plurality yet. I hope that changes as the offensives gets rolling in earnest.
tiffer24
Senior Member
Things are going well. Russia accidentally bombs it's own city.
A Russian Sukhoi-34 fighter-jet has accidentally bombed the Russian city of Belgorod, around 40km (25 miles) from the border with Ukraine. The bomb left a 20m (60ft) crater and caused an explosion so large it blew a car on to the roof of a nearby shop.
Regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said authorities had ordered the evacuation of a damaged nine-storey block of flats as a precaution. Three people were injured and several buildings were damaged, he said.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65344370
A Russian Sukhoi-34 fighter-jet has accidentally bombed the Russian city of Belgorod, around 40km (25 miles) from the border with Ukraine. The bomb left a 20m (60ft) crater and caused an explosion so large it blew a car on to the roof of a nearby shop.
Regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said authorities had ordered the evacuation of a damaged nine-storey block of flats as a precaution. Three people were injured and several buildings were damaged, he said.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65344370
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Possibly the details of their (expected) retreat were released early so the pilot thought it was back in Ukrainian hands :->
Northern Light
Superstar
The suspicion seems to be that this is the result of a Glide Bomb, whose wings did not deploy.
Assuming that's the case, there is still the question of why would risk deployment over one's own population center, rather than farmland/rural area.
Russia's air force accidentally bombs own city of Belgorod
Russia’s military has acknowledged that a bomb accidentally dropped by one of its warplanes caused a powerful blast in a Russian city about 40 kilometers (25 miles) east of the Russia-Ukraine border
abcnews.go.com
kEiThZ
Superstar
Corps sized attack if these numbers pan out. This is basically somewhere between ,Gulf War 1 and D-Day Normandy landings.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
How many soldiers make up a corps? AIUI, a British-Commonwealth styled infantry regiment has about two thousand men, broken into two equal battalions of one thousand men. An infantry division is between 10,000 and 30,000 men, or ten to thirty regiments. A corps is clearly a combination of infantry, armoured, mechanized and artillery divisions or parts of their regiments or battalions.
So, what constirtues a Corps sized attack? And what larger than that, a full on Army?
wopchop
Building Toronto
I believe it varies greatly - basically anything more than 2 divisions up to a half dozen. In WW1 the Canadian Corps was 4 Divisions. In WW2, the first Corps grew to five Divisions. There was a second Corps as well, which I think had 5-7 divisions. Obviously those Wars were a long time ago, but I imagine the size is still rather variable.
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kEiThZ
Superstar
In modern terms, at least 2-3 divisions which each have 3-4 brigades. Modern brigades vary in size from 3000-5000 personnel and several hundred armoured vehicles.
Thomas (ex-Italian artillery officer with NATO staff experience) is saying that Ukraine has 20 brigades (with 80-90k total personnel) likely reserved/committed for the counteroffensive. This will be concentrated on a few kilometers of the front to breakthrough.
The Russians have more personnel. But they are massively spread out over a large area and aren't very mobile, due to a shortage of vehicles. When they Ukrainians managed to break into the rear, all hell will break loose. They'll probably form brigade sized teams that start attacking and destroying various Russian units after completing cutting off and destroying Russian logistics in the rear. With any luck, this will precipitate some collapse and surrenders.
By the way, the Ukrainians have some recent (and famous) history of deep raids that is almost mythologized by Western officers:
Great Raid of 2014 - Wikipedia
The planner and leader of that raid is now the deputy commander of Ukraine's armed forces:
Mykhailo Zabrodskyi - Wikipedia
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kEiThZ
Superstar
They are having plenty of weapons failures. A British Rivet Joint was saved because the missile the Russian pilot accidentally fired at it failed. We should all be grateful that Russian quality control and routine maintenance isn't up to our standards.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
What’s the opinion of CNC Zaluzhnyi?The planner and leader of that raid is now the deputy commander of Ukraine's armed forces:
Mykhailo Zabrodskyi - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org