kEiThZ
Superstar
It's a great tank. Especially for urban warfare. It's supportability that's a problem. In the long run, Ukraine needs to be kitted out with European gear.
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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War
- Thread starter Towered
- Start date
It's a great tank. Especially for urban warfare. It's supportability that's a problem. In the long run, Ukraine needs to be kitted out with European gear.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
We might be there….
This Ukrainian commander says leaks, fearsome choppers and poor planning doomed the counteroffensive
An officer who led his troops into one of the key initial battles of Ukraine's counteroffensive labels the operation a failure.
www.abc.net.au
”It failed," he said of the operation that Ukraine and its western allies had invested so much into. "If we believe that the whole point of the counteroffensive was the capture of two or three villages in the Bakhmut area and one in the Zaporizhzhia direction, then we have succeeded. But if it was based on the fact we were supposed to be near Crimea, but in fact have advanced only 10 kilometres or so [towards Melitopol], it was a little unsuccessful."
kEiThZ
Superstar
I think doomed from the start is accurate. They never got what they needed and felt compelled to try anyway, either because of perceived or actual pressure.
I can't imagine planning a major breaching operation without airpower.
I can't imagine planning a major breaching operation without airpower.
Towered
Senior Member
So what now? News has been sparse recently regarding Western support for Ukraine. It's been completely overshadowed by the conflict in Israel. Are Ukraine's allies debating strategy on how to best end this before it becomes a frozen stalemate? Ukraine has been screaming for fighter jets almost since the start, supposedly pilots have undergone training and they're supposed to get planes sometime next year, but it seems like months since anything has been mentioned. What about more mine removal equipment? What about more long range missiles, now that the US has finally relented with regards to supplying them. What about the German Taurus missiles? Scholz has been flip flopping hard. I'm assuming that Western military deliveries have continued and they just haven't made the headlines?
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Indeed. There are similarities with the the Ardennes Offensive,
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Ukraine must go through, around or over the minefields and defensive works and get to the gates of Crimea. If they don’t do this by this time next year, they’re kippered. By then the West will have provided F-16s, Abrams tanks, and more advanced kit, and taxpayers and pundits in the West will be wanting to see results.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Good article to bring us to our senses...
www.wilsoncenter.org
Reasons for Opposing Ukraine Aid Are Baseless
kEiThZ
Superstar
What's going on in Venezuela-Guyana is a result of our hesitation on Ukraine. Every dictator is now emboldened. I wonder how long before China makes a play for Taiwan.
Richard White
Senior Member
Yes but look how the Iraq War played out when we tried ousting Saddam or when we ousted Gadhafi!
Admiral Beez
Superstar
I can't help but wonder if in spring 2023, Ukraine would have had more success if they'd thrown everything at taking Melitopol before Russia could lay their minefields, instead of diluting their forces on three different pushes. Yes, Wagner would have taken Bakhmut sooner and then progressed further, but Ukraine would have a strategic victory that cuts off Crimea and all the Russian forces in Kherson Oblast, and from which to launch a counteroffensive in Spring 2024. As it stands now, Ukraine is little further ahead than they were in March 2023, see maps March and Dec below, any difference?
kEiThZ
Superstar
This isn't looking good. I can't believe we're openly allowing opponents of democracy to do this:
www.theguardian.com
Republicans to meet allies of Hungaryâs Viktor Orbán on ending Ukraine aid
Hungarian appearance at two-day event part of Orbán’s transatlantic attempt to bolster Russia’s war
www.theguardian.com
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Certainly reinforces the opinion that relying on the US to continue to support allies is unwise. Ask the Kurds, the Afghans and now, maybe, the Ukrainians.This isn't looking good. I can't believe we're openly allowing opponents of democracy to do this:
Republicans to meet allies of Hungaryâs Viktor Orbán on ending Ukraine aid
Hungarian appearance at two-day event part of Orbán’s transatlantic attempt to bolster Russia’s war
Admiral Beez
Superstar
A Lonely Ukrainian Challenger 2 Tank In The Snow: A Symbol Of Disappointment ... And Hope
If Ukraine’s counteroffensive had achieved its objectives, that tank wouldn’t have been in Robotyne as the snow fell. It would’ve been in Melitopol, 40 miles south.
www.forbes.com
FWIW, after twenty months of fighting and hundreds of thousands of casualties, the Russians are still able to push forward and take new ground while putting a stop to Ukraine's much anticipated 2023 spring offensive. Losses in men are inconsequential to Russia's totalitarian regime, especially when the losses are mainly from prison labour and Siberian Untermensch, and when the high side of Russia's estimated 500k dead/wounded/pow is equal to a slow month's USSR military casualties during WW2.
In the 46 months between Operational Barbarossa in June 1941 to VE Day in May 1945, the USSR's military losses were 8.6 million dead and over 22 million wounded, for a total of 31 million military casualties. That's an average of 673,810 causalities every month. With this perspective, Russia's manpower losses over twenty months in Ukraine are but a nuisance to Putin, and at a sustainable rate that allows Russia to outlast the increasingly reluctant West.
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Full Metal Junkie
Active Member
I don't think that would have made an iota of difference, other than literally burning all of the Western equipment in one spot a few months earlier, given that:
- This section of the frontlines haven't moved at all since summer 2022
- Russia has long ago dug in and mined the area by 2023
- A lot of deliveries of Western equipment haven't even arrived yet
- Training of UAF on Western equipment hasn't completed yet
- Mass armor column assaults do not work on the 21st century battlefield given its saturation with cheap anti-armor capabilities and drone surveillance
What would have worked is if our western governments did not wait an entire year since the war began before even discussing the possibility of giving tanks to Ukraine. It they did not wait a year and a half before discussing the possibility of giving Ukraine outdated fighter jets. If the US didn't wait over 18 months before supplying Ukraine with a handful of badly needed ATACMS. What would have also worked is if the Western governments didn't force Ukraine to fight with one arm behind its back and not being able to strike Russian military targets with Western military aid in Russia proper.
If for the first year and a half our politicians didn't give lame excuses such as "Western tanks are too complicated for an average Ukrainian", "Training fighter pilots takes a long time", "Ukraine does not require long range precision strike capability", "What if Putin escalates?"
If our governments actually wanted Ukraine to win this war, they should have started training UAF on the western equipment in the spring of 2022, delivered tanks, rocket artillery and fighter jets by fall 2022 and Ukraine would have had enough resources to keep pushing the successes of Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, instead of stopping due to lack of munition and equipment, giving Russia time to regroup, dig in and mine. They could have captured Crimea and ended the war by now. Instead, the lack of leadership in our political leadership caused the impassable stalemate we see on the battlefield today. And given the depth and saturation of Russian defensive lines today, Ukraine will need to pay a much higher price than they ought to in order to break through at this point.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
I think the West moved about as fast as it was likely possible to - look how fast Ukraine received the MANPATS, MANPADS, drones and small arms that crushed Russia's assault on Kyiv.
What would have worked is if Ukraine, having been independent from Russia for over thirty years by Feb 2022 had spent those decades preparing its own defence. There were eight years between Russia seizing Crimea in 2014 (with hardly a shot fired by Ukraine, BTW) and the new invasion in 2022. Instead of blaming the West, we need to ask Ukraine what were they doing for those thirty years of corrupt, incompetent governance, and the more recent eight years since Ukraine's uncontested surrender of Crimea? Look at the ridiculous example of the T-84 tank, intended to be produced in one of the largest tank factories in Europe, The first T-84 prototype vehicle rolled out in 1994, and in the nearly thirty years since has produced less than sixty units.