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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War
- Thread starter Towered
- Start date
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Lots of LATAM people are granted green cards AFTER they have entered illegally or illegally overstayed a visitor or work visa. That’s not immigration, that’s after the fact harm reduction. When we emigrated to Canada, my dad applied in our country of origin (UK), where we remained until granted immigrant status. Only then did we travel to Canada. That’s the immigration from south of Texas I’m looking for.
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Richard White
Senior Member
Apparently Ukraine is running out of ammo and having to scale back their operations.
This has me wondering how much longer this war can go on for. I feel like Europe and the West are going to force the issue next year if there is no resolution. It was fun for the first two years but now it is becoming a bit of a stalemate.
Without an end in sight, it is hard to justify sending money and ammo to Ukraine.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...le-back-some-operations-commander-2023-12-18/
This has me wondering how much longer this war can go on for. I feel like Europe and the West are going to force the issue next year if there is no resolution. It was fun for the first two years but now it is becoming a bit of a stalemate.
Without an end in sight, it is hard to justify sending money and ammo to Ukraine.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...le-back-some-operations-commander-2023-12-18/
Admiral Beez
Superstar
The term stalemate doesn’t really apply. Stalemate refers to the situation in chess where the player whose turn it is has no legal move. This means the player is stuck, not because they lack the resources, but because the rules strictly control how those resources can be used. Also, in chess, when in Stalemate you cannot add more pieces.
Ukraine is not thusly limited. They can add more resources or move resources around in whatever way they want, with the only “rule” being that they not use Western kit to strike Russia proper. That’s not a Stalemate.
T3G
Senior Member
What?!?!?!?
Richard White
Senior Member
kEiThZ
Superstar
This attitude would have seen the UK surrender to the Nazis before the US joined the war.
Richard White
Senior Member
True but this is not WWII.
The point I was trying to make is that despite their best efforts, Ukraine is not gaining much in the way of lost territory and there is no end in sight for this war.
Trust me, I want to see Russia sent packing and I would love to see troops on the ground within striking distance of Moscow however that is not happening at the moment. What is happening is that the world is pumping money into something that is not going anywhere.
Ukraine made it's valiant stand to defend the homeland but much like the Hungarians in 1956, the Russians are coming and no amount of armed resistance will prevent that. To use a WWII analogy, if Ukraine wants to win this thing they have to go big and make a decisive attack on Russia.
Until more substantial progress is made I can see the world losing interest in supplying arms and money to Ukraine. People want to see value in money and pissing away money to fight a proxy war is not going to be popular over the long term in many countries globally.
If Trump gets in next year, you can bet that Ukraine will lose funding from the US. If the CPC gets in while this war drags on, expect funding to be cut for Ukraine. Within the EU countries like Hungary are already blocking funding due to domestic pressures.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Not gaining territory does not mean they are losing the war either. At minimum the solution here is to help them stalemate.
Though I personally believe we set them up for failure by not giving them everything promised in time and then expecting to go on the offensive anyway. We would never fight that war. Absurd to expect that of Ukraine.
Deal with that bridge when we get to it.
This really sounds like a bit of projection here based on the history of your motherland. Hungary is a postage stamp of a country. Ukraine is not.
Richard White
Senior Member
Yes but that fight against the Russians was enough to have the resistance fighters named Man of the Year in 1957. That does not happen unless the event is significant.
It is worth noting that Volodymyr Zelensky made the cover in 2022 as Person of the Year.
See here: https://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19570107,00.html
Much like the Ukrainians, the Hungarians fought with alot less than the Ukrainians have now and managed to force out the Russians. Unfortunately, the Russians came back and occupied the country for 35 years.
The point I am making is just because someone is fighting for their homeland does not mean they will win a war.
You need more than patriotic spirit to win a war. Citizens with guns do not win wars, strategy and powerful ammunition do.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Hungary was occupied by the Soviet Union, a country that was 20-30x the population at the time. Russia is 4x the population of Ukraine. The idea that they'll be able to occupy and pacify Ukraine is ludicrous. Even they aren't planning for it. They just hope to nibble away and keep their land bridge.
The minute they have to start occupying places with substantial population they'll be facing an insurgency that would make Afghanistan look like a Sunday stroll. And they know this.
The minute they have to start occupying places with substantial population they'll be facing an insurgency that would make Afghanistan look like a Sunday stroll. And they know this.
Towered
Senior Member
The Ukrainians don't even necessarily have to push much to regain territory. They could just sit back and rain down missiles relentlessly on Russian military targets. That could be sustained for years with minimal manpower losses. Make it so incredibly costly for Russia to maintain occupation of the lands they're tenuously holding that they'll eventually be forced to just leave of their own volition. That could be another path to victory for Ukraine, albeit a longer one.
Or the West could finally grow a pair and let Ukraine go into Russia proper (which is sparsely defended) to go behind the defensive lines.
Anything even remotely resembling a ceasefire or compromise is an automatic victory for the vile Putin, and that's not something that the world can afford whatsoever.
Or the West could finally grow a pair and let Ukraine go into Russia proper (which is sparsely defended) to go behind the defensive lines.
Anything even remotely resembling a ceasefire or compromise is an automatic victory for the vile Putin, and that's not something that the world can afford whatsoever.
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lenaitch
Senior Member
One concern I have with incursions into current non-Crimean Russian territory is the potential for an excessive retaliation including tactical nuclear. Not a rational response but I don't think Putin has ever been accused to being rational. What limited opposition he faces, both organized or just grassroots disgruntled families wondering where their sons are, might dissipate if The Fatherland is attacked.
If things go pearshaped and the West gets dragged in, it becomes a Great Power war. It's a little easier to sit back and discuss the philosophies behind all of that but there are a few million people who would have that playing in front of them in real time.
If things go pearshaped and the West gets dragged in, it becomes a Great Power war. It's a little easier to sit back and discuss the philosophies behind all of that but there are a few million people who would have that playing in front of them in real time.
kEiThZ
Superstar
I think Putin is actually quite rational. Which is exactly why he's so masterful at playing us. He knows how to get the West to scare itself into self-restraint.
lenaitch
Senior Member
Cunning for sure ("having or showing skills in achieving one's end by deceit or evasion"). Still not sure about rational.