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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

Richard White said:
The fact is that this war is dragging on for so long
Click to expand...

This mentality is nuts.

The Nazis invaded Poland in 1939. D-day wasn't until 1944.

The people saying this war has gone on long enough would have been arguing for the surrender of Europe had they been around at that time. And we're not even being asked to risk our lives, just to pay the equivalent of say 50¢/day in aid to help the Ukrainians. No wonder autocrats like Putin think we are weak.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1757378375109275829
 
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Poland is starting to talk about getting nukes. After all, if the American security umbrella isn't going to be there, and the rest of Western Europe is as weak as Canada, they can't be sure that the French and British deterrents would save them and Eastern Europe.

www.newsweek.com

NATO general raises prospect of new nuclear power

Poland's Brigadier General Jaroslaw Kraszewski said his country getting nuclear weapons was a "realistic scenario."
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com

In a world where collective security can't be trusted because of laggards and flaky commitments, nukes become the only guarantor. Going to be a fun world when Poland, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam and Saudi Arabia all decide they need nukes.
 
kEiThZ said:
Poland is starting to talk about getting nukes. After all, if the American security umbrella isn't going to be there, and the rest of Western Europe is as weak as Canada, they can't be sure that the French and British deterrents would save them and Eastern Europe.

www.newsweek.com

NATO general raises prospect of new nuclear power

Poland's Brigadier General Jaroslaw Kraszewski said his country getting nuclear weapons was a "realistic scenario."
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com

In a world where collective security can't be trusted because of laggards and flaky commitments, nukes become the only guarantor. Going to be a fun world when Poland, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam and Saudi Arabia all decide they need nukes.
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If a sudden proliferation of nukes occurs across the globe, we'll mainly have Trump to thank, since he's going to win the election and he has already set the tone for this incoming disaster.
 
Richard White said:
Didn't they try this in the 80s when the US outlawed big honking space guns?
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The Outer Space Treaty prohibits weapons in space. The US dropped their plans after that treaty. The Russians did the same thing with the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty. They denied violating it for years. The Trump Administration finally pulled out and named all the Russian sites and weapons that violated the treaty. The US has now begun fielding its own intermediate range weapons, which of course the Russians complain about.

This pattern of behaviour is a big problem. It's unfortunate that most of the public in the West doesn't understand why we need to counter this.
 
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This sums it up nicely.

The Russo-Ukrainian War: A Strategic Assessment Two Years into the Conflict

*/
www.ausa.org www.ausa.org

Russia's strategic ends can be summarized as:
  • fracture the Ukrainian state—politically, territorially and culturally;
  • maintain sufficient territorial acquisitions to support a range of acceptable political-military outcomes;
  • maintain strategic materiel overmatch;
  • exhaust Ukraine's ability to continue fighting—both materially and as regards Ukrainian support from the international community;
  • normalize the conflict's abnormalities; and
  • undercut and erode Ukraine's ability to conduct offensive operations to reclaim annexed territory.
Russia's strategy of exhaustion can be broken into five lines of effort:
  • incrementally increase territorial gains to support negotiations later down the line;
  • fortify territorial gains to prevent Ukrainian efforts to retake that land;
  • destroy Ukraine's offensive capability to prevent future attempts to retake annexed territory;
  • temporally elongate the conflict to outlast U.S. and Western military support; and
  • temporally and spatially elongate the conflict to exceed Ukraine's manpower reserves.
 
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MisterF said:
Anyone who thinks that Russia would stop trying to conquer the rest of Ukraine if the West gave them the occupied territories is hopelessly naive.
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Russia will stop when it reaches an opponent it cannot conceivable defeat. That’s why Russia hasn’t invaded neighbouring China, Japan or NATO’s Baltic Reps or Poland. The ideal that Russia is some mindless horde may be popular, but Russians are a pragmatic people, just like any other.

I honestly think Crimea is forever lost to Russia, as I don't see Ukraine having sufficient manpower, resources or Allied support into 2028 or 2030, when POTUS 48 and then 49 are in the WH and the last of the Cold War Boomers are gone. Sometimes life isn't fair and you have to accept circumstances as they are, rather than what you wish they were. This is akin to how Germany lost East Prussia to Poland and Russia, Ireland lost most of Ulster to the UK, Denmark lost Southern Schleswig to Germany, how Mexico lost a huge chunk to the USA, and just look how much territory China has lost to Russia.

Looking at the map below and given its manpower shortages and reliance on foreign interest and aid, I suggest that Ukraine would be fortunate if they managed to retake all of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts by 2028. But Crimea and the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts are most likely gone forever.

640px-2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg.png


I would not be surprised if by 2040 the West recognized Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk as Russian (or as "independent" DPRs) in a negotiated/coerced peace with Putin's successor and whomever replaces Zelenskyy, as some sort of modern-day Western betrayal, especially if Putin's successor makes any indications of turning away from authoritarianism and expansionism. Abandoning Eastern Europe in the name of immediate peace, disengagement and renewed commerce is a hardwired part of Western foreign policy.
 
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Any Western accomodation of Russia after this war will only lead to more violence and aggression. Could it happen? Maybe. The West is admittedly weak willed. But it shouldn't happen. This is Cold War 2.0 and Russia is but one member of that Axis, and Ukraine is one front. Cede it there, we'll be suffering elsewhere.

And I don't think Russia gaining territory is the only possible outcome. Russia itself is rather fragile, with an aging population and a lot of very rebellious minorities.
 
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