2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

[Full Metal Junkie]

Ukraine is what it is. In 1991 it started out as a country with the largest land army in Europe, at two million strong. Then in 1994 it was sold a bag of goods by the US and UK, promising it absolute sovereignty and security guarantees if it only de-arms and gives up its nukes and all of its nuclear-capable air force assets. Also, the people of Europe in general, and of Ukraine in particular, got complacent with the thought that they live in the 21st century. You know, the 21st century in which surely no one will be mad enough to start a full blown war in Europe.

We can and should blame Ukraine for its own mistakes, yes. However, my point stands that if our governments actually wanted Ukraine to win they would have acted a lot more decisively in the first months of the war. Yes, manpads and manpats actually managed to stop Russia in it's tracks. But the reason we were supplying only manpads and manpats at the start is because we didn't believe Ukraine would actually withstand the assault, that it would fold, that Russia would occupy all of its territories. So we supplied man-portables, which are great for guerilla warfare that we sought this conflict would evolve into. From day 0, we never believed Ukraine could win. And when they proved us wrong, we still waited another year before giving them tanks and just starting to train their pilots.

So no, we didn't:

moved about as fast as it was likely possible

 

[Towered]

I think the West moved about as fast as it was likely possible to - look how fast Ukraine received the MANPATS, MANPADS, drones and small arms that crushed Russia's assault on Kyiv.

What would have worked is if Ukraine, having been independent from Russia for over thirty years by Feb 2022 had spent those decades preparing its own defence. There were eight years between Russia seizing Crimea in 2014 (with hardly a shot fired by Ukraine, BTW) and the new invasion in 2022. Instead of blaming the West, we need to ask Ukraine what were they doing for those thirty years of corrupt, incompetent governance, and the more recent eight years since Ukraine's uncontested surrender of Crimea? Look at the ridiculous example of the T-84 tank, intended to be produced in one of the largest tank factories in Europe, The first T-84 prototype vehicle rolled out in 1994, and in the nearly thirty years since has produced less than sixty units.

The first 20ish years of Ukraine as an independent country it was not necessarily at odds with Russia though. It wasn't until the Euromaidan mass protests and flight of the suddenly pro-Russian president in 2014 that Ukraine decisively oriented itself to the West with NATO and EU membership ambitions. After that happened and the subsequent occupation of Crimea and large parts of Donetsk and Luhansk by "fake" Russian troops, Ukraine did start reforms to train their army along the Western model. The West should have done MUCH more during that 8 year period to help them. If they had, the current war could have been avoided, but unfortunately our idiot leaders ignored the sage advice of experts like John McCain, who knew exactly what kind of mad man Putin was and what his ambitions were.

Through inaction, we now have to do it the hard way at a much higher price.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The West should have done MUCH more during that 8 year period to help them.

Agreed, that was the time to act. I wish in 2012-2013 Obama had seized the opportunity to drop a thousand troops onto Crimea as joint exercise with Ukraine. But Obama and the USA were too occupied with Iraq and Afghanistan.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Biden Pledges U.S. 'Will Not Walk Away From Ukraine'

President Joe Biden announced the approval of the latest round of military assistance to Ukraine, valued at $200 million, which includes critically needed air defense interceptors, artillery and

www.defense.gov

I think the US will approve the latest funding for Ukraine, if not by the end of 2024 then in Jan-Feb. But I think Ukraine needs to appreciate that this may well be the final US funding package for Ukraine. Thankfully Ukraine's other backers are increasingly stepping up on their military aid, but Ukraine may find that this non-US bump and the latest US aid package will be all they'll get for 2024. Given that, and the failure to regain territory in 2023 with the billions $$ already provided, I find it unlikely that Ukraine will gain much more territory before being forced to the negotiating table in 2025 - certainly the odds of retaking Crimea are nigh improbable. I could then see whatever constitutes Ukraine being granted EU and NATO membership before 2028 in order to deter Russia from taking a third swing at Ukraine.

Life will have to go on for Ukraine with its reduced territory, just the same as Poland, (Territorial evolution of Poland - Wikipedia), Denmark (Borders of Denmark - Wikipedia) and most other countries in Europe and much of the world that faced coerced border changes, List of national border changes (1914–present) - Wikipedia

 

[Richard White]

Biden Pledges U.S. 'Will Not Walk Away From Ukraine'

President Joe Biden announced the approval of the latest round of military assistance to Ukraine, valued at $200 million, which includes critically needed air defense interceptors, artillery and

www.defense.gov

I think the US will approve the latest funding for Ukraine, if not by the end of 2024 then in Jan-Feb. But I think Ukraine needs to appreciate that this may well be the final US funding package for Ukraine. Thankfully Ukraine's other backers are increasingly stepping up on their military aid, but Ukraine may find that this non-US bump and the latest US aid package will be all they'll get for 2024. Given that, and the failure to regain territory in 2023 with the billions $$ already provided, I find it unlikely that Ukraine will gain much more territory before being forced to the negotiating table in 2025. I could then see whatever constitutes Ukraine being granted EU and NATO membership before 2028 in order to deter Russia was taking a third swing at Ukraine.

As much as I love Ukraine, I can see this being the case.

The world has dumped billions of dollars as you said into the war with not much to show for it other than a stalemate. At some point, Ukraine's allies are going to start questioning where the money and supplies are going.

I know this is an unpopular opinion here however in a way I can see why Hungary would block EU Membership proposals for Ukraine at the present time. Now is not the time to be inviting them into the EU.

Ukraine needs to figure things out with this war THEN they can start considering EU and NATO membership. Inviting them into the EU or NATO right now will only end badly if Ukraine ends up losing this war. I hope they do not but if things do not change, Russia will have a foothold in Ukraine for some time to come.

Rushing into EU and NATO Membership in an attempt to stop Russia from invading is not a guarantee that Russia will. They need to get their s**t together before it should be considered.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

being forced to the negotiating table in 2025

Ukraine being granted EU and NATO membership before 2028 in order to deter Russia from taking a third swing at Ukraine

How do you envision the 2025 negotiations proceeding if the cornerstone of Russian demands will be the Ukrainian non-NATO status enshrined in the constitution of Ukraine and a myriad of other international agreements? Russia has made this demand very clear and they never once swayed from their position.

 

[Admiral Beez]

How do you envision the 2025 negotiations proceeding if the cornerstone of Russian demands will be the Ukrainian non-NATO status enshrined in the constitution of Ukraine and a myriad of other international agreements? Russia has made this demand very clear and they never once swayed from their position.

I cannot guess what Russia will do, but eventually the fighting needs to stop. There's no chance of Ukraine regaining ALL of its pre-2014 territory by the end of 2025. So, Ukraine has from now until about the autumn 2025 to regain as much land as it can. That's not appeasement, that's fighting to a standstill and then coming to terms. Ukraine surrendered Crimea in 2014 without a shot, and survived as a country afterward. Ukraine has until autumn 2025 to gain what it can, and then it will need to decide how to live with its neighbour.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

I cannot guess what Russia will do, but eventually the fighting needs to stop. There's no chance of Ukraine regaining ALL of its pre-2014 territory by the end of 2025. So, Ukraine has from now until about the autumn 2025 to regain as much land as it can. That's not appeasement, that's fighting to a standstill and then coming to terms. Ukraine surrendered Crimea in 2014 without a shot, and survived as a country afterward. Ukraine has until autumn 2025 to gain what it can, and then it will need to decide how to live with its neighbour.

Why do you see autumn 2025 as the critical point in time? I can understand January 2025 (i.e. the second inauguration of Donnie Tinyhands) as being the point at which Ukraine gets arm-wrestled into negotiations. Why autumn though?

 

[Admiral Beez]

Why do you see autumn 2025 as the critical point in time? I can understand January 2025 (i.e. the second inauguration of Donnie Tinyhands) as being the point at which Ukraine gets arm-wrestled into negotiations. Why autumn though?

I predict that the US will approve this latest funding bill over the holidays, and most likely a further Ukraine aid package in late 2024, either before the GOP (may not be Trump) takes the White House, or in early 2025 if Biden wins. But that 2025 funding bill may likely be the final large US military aid package for Ukraine.

Why autumn? As we're seeing now, autumn is the time of the bezdorizhzhya “roadlessness” in Ukrainian (rasputitsa in Russian), referring to to the semi-annual mud season that hits Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia in the spring and fall. As such, whatever territory Ukraine has regained by autumn 2025 will be where the line is fixed until spring 2026. I have no faith that the US or even Europe will be united in funding Ukraine into 2026, and Ukraine will be forced to negotiate from the autumn 2025 lines.

 

[Admiral Beez]

With this seemingly dragging on into next year I wonder what the endgame is here?

It is almost as though the war has reached a stalemate.

What’s so dire in the GOP’s demands for border security that Biden and the Dems are willing to sacrifice Ukraine? It I was an American I’d want the southern border secure as well. Has anyone from south of Texas ever legally emigrated to the US?

Why the GOP Doesn’t Really Want a Deal on Ukraine and the Border

The congressional opposition to the president’s funding request explained—as far as it can be

www.theatlantic.com

 

[Towered]

Are you guys seriously victim blaming here? Unbelievable.

 

[Towered]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/12/politics/russia-troop-losses-us-intelligence-assessment/index.html

 

[Admiral Beez]

Are you guys seriously victim blaming here? Unbelievable.

What? You’ll need to explain that for me. Who’s the victim?

 

[Admiral Beez]

Russia has lost 87% of troops it had prior to start of Ukraine war, according to US intelligence assessment​

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/12/politics/russia-troop-losses-us-intelligence-assessment/index.html

And yet, Russia has stymied Ukraine’s much lauded 2023 counteroffensive. Putin would consider this a fair ROI.

 

[Richard White]

What’s so dire in the GOP’s demands for border security that Biden and the Dems are willing to sacrifice Ukraine? It I was an American I’d want the southern border secure as well. Has anyone from south of Texas ever legally emigrated to the US?

Why the GOP Doesn’t Really Want a Deal on Ukraine and the Border

The congressional opposition to the president’s funding request explained—as far as it can be

www.theatlantic.com

Funny you should say that.

I am currently boinking a Mexican woman who lives here but is originally from Ciudad De Juarez in Mexico on the Texas border. She recalls many times going to Texas legally but not wanting to live there given what life is like in Texas.