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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

I think a challenge also is that much of Ukraine is on a peacetime economy. I'm not convinced that all Ukrainians see the invasion as an existential threat to their people's survival. In 2006 I visited Israel and, sitting at a cafe near the Gaza border, as I looked up at a pair of F-15 Eagles circling overhead, bombed-up and ready for bear, I mentioned to my customer and host's father that the country has this combo of idyllic Mediterranean lifestyle but Sparta-like military preparedness, where everyone is prepared to fight. The old man, a combat veteran of 67 and 73 put down his coffee and tapped the table with his index finger, saying "never again will anyone f#ck with the Jewish people" adding "we know that any invader of Israel is not coming for territory or resources, but to murder every Jew they can find, to wipe us out, every man, women and child", and when in 1973 the Israelis were invaded in the Yom Kippur War, there was no peace economy, no cafes or shops or attempts to carry on life as usual; instead every Israeli who could fight, fought, while everyone else in the country supported them materially.

This is what Ukraine is missing, that sense that the Russians are not coming for land, but for blood, and that the nation must be defended at all and total cost. And it's not as if Ukrainians do not have their own Holocaust or Holodomor to remind them that the Russians are not coming for territorial gain alone - Putin has already primed the pump by announcing that Ukrainians are a fake, non-people in preparation for genocide. For starters, six million Ukrainians fled the country when the invasion began, many children yes, but also many women and men of fighting age. This would be anathema to the Israelis, to whom their soil is in their blood and it will be held to the last - there would be no second Exodus of Israelis fleeing to the four corners of the world. On the contrary, when Israel is threatened, Jewish people from across the globe flood into Israel to bolster its defence. There is no fleeing.

Out of 44 million Ukrainians the AFU has about 800,000 active members in all roles, including admin, logistics/support, mechanics, pilots and front line combat troops. For some perspective, during WW2, with a population of 11.5 million, over 1 million Canadians enlisted in the RCN/RCAF/Army. That's ten percent of all Canadians enlisted in the forces, and a much higher % of eligible adult males. During the Yom Kippur War, Israel fielded 400,000 combat soldiers out of 3.2 million people. During the 1939-40 Winter War against the USSR, Finland fielded 340,000 troops out of a population of 3.7 million Finns. Where is Ukraine's ten percent? Imagine if, by summer 2023 the AFU had four million enlisted women and men and what might have been possible. Perhaps it's a question of limited capacity for expanding training, equipment, ammunition availability and logistics to support such a force. But it must be done, solutions must be found. Ukraine is not going to expel the Russians nor save its nation while trying to keep the semblances of a peacetime economy and and medium sized AFU. Zelenskyy needs to look to the Israelis for inspiration, and for starters ask all Ukrainian adults without children who have fled abroad to return to defend their nation and announce wider conscription.

The curtain is slowly coming down for Ukraine. Unlike Israel, where the lobby is strong in Washington, by summer 2024 the USA will begin to rapidly lose interest in materially and financially supporting Ukraine, and as the USA goes so does the rest of NATO. With Poland's renewed miliary strength and NATO expanded into Scandinavia right onto St. Petersburg's doorstep, there is a near zero chance of Russia invading any NATO member. This is especially true if Russia is bleeding out it military in Ukraine. By end of 2024 or early 2025 (especially if the GOP take the White House) I can envision pressure from the West for Ukraine and Russia to come to terms. NATO knows it is safe from a now militarily and economically shattered Russia, and the West will just want to get back to business. I don't know what the Ukrainian word is for Western Betrayal, but it's coming. The Poles know it well.
 
Last edited:
Admiral Beez said:
I think a challenge also is that much of Ukraine is on a peacetime economy. I'm not convinced that all Ukrainians see the invasion as an existential threat to their people's survival. In 2006 I visited Israel and, sitting at a cafe near the Gaza border, as I looked up at a pair of F-15 Eagles circling overhead, bombed-up and ready for bear, I mentioned to my customer and host's father that the country has this combo of idyllic Mediterranean lifestyle but Sparta-like military preparedness, where everyone is prepared to fight. The old man, a combat veteran of 67 and 73 put down his coffee and tapped the table with his index finger, saying "never again will anyone f#ck with the Jewish people" adding "we know that any invader of Israel is not coming for territory or resources, but to murder every Jew they can find, to wipe us out, every man, women and child", and when in 1973 the Israelis were invaded in the Yom Kippur War, there was no peace economy, no cafes or shops or attempts to carry on life as usual; instead every Israeli who could fight, fought, while everyone else in the country supported them materially.

This is what Ukraine is missing, that sense that the Russians are not coming for land, but for blood, and that the nation must be defended at all and total cost. And it's not as if Ukrainians do not have their own Holocaust or Holodomor to remind them that the Russians are not coming for territorial gain alone - Putin has already primed the pump by announcing that Ukrainians are a fake, non-people in preparation for genocide. For starters, six million Ukrainians fled the country when the invasion began, many children yes, but also many women and men of fighting age. This would be anathema to the Israelis, to whom their soil is in their blood and it will be held to the last - there would be no second Exodus of Israelis fleeing to the four corners of the world. On the contrary, when Israel is threatened, Jewish people from across the globe flood into Israel to bolster its defence. There is no fleeing.

Out of 44 million Ukrainians the AFU has about 800,000 active members in all roles, including admin, logistics/support, mechanics, pilots and front line combat troops. For some perspective, during WW2, with a population of 11.5 million, over 1 million Canadians enlisted in the RCN/RCAF/Army. That's ten percent of all Canadians enlisted in the forces, and a much higher % of eligible adult males. During the Yom Kippur War, Israel fielded 400,000 combat soldiers out of 3.2 million people. During the 1939-40 Winter War against the USSR, Finland fielded 340,000 troops out of a population of 3.7 million Finns. Where is Ukraine's ten percent? Imagine if, by summer 2023 the AFU had four million enlisted women and men and what might have been possible. Perhaps it's a question of limited capacity for expanding training, equipment, ammunition availability and logistics to support such a force. But it must be done, solutions must be found. Ukraine is not going to expel the Russians nor save its nation while trying to keep the semblances of a peacetime economy and and medium sized AFU. Zelenskyy needs to look to the Israelis for inspiration, and for starters ask all Ukrainian adults without children who have fled abroad to return to defend their nation and announce wider conscription.

The curtain is slowing coming down for Ukraine. Unlike Israel, where the lobby is strong in Washington, by summer 2024 the USA will begin to rapidly lose interest in materially and financially supporting Ukraine, and as the USA goes so does the rest of NATO. With Poland's renewed miliary strength and NATO expanded into Scandinavia right onto St. Petersburg's doorstep, there is a near zero chance of Russia invading any NATO member. This is especially true if Russia is bleeding out it military in Ukraine. By end of 2024 or early 2025 (especially if the GOP take the White House) I can envision pressure from the West for Ukraine and Russia to come to terms. NATO knows it is safe from a now militarily and economically shattered Russia, and the West will just want to get back to business. I don't know what the Ukrainian word is for Western Betrayal, but it's coming. The Poles know it well.
Click to expand...

A TL: DR would have been helpful here but...

Honestly, I can see support for Ukraine drying up in the very near future. There was an impetus to help at first however the longer this draws on, the less likely people will want to continue helping.

At some point, foreign nations will not see the value in helping Ukraine and instead focus on their own domestic issues again. If no progress is made, countries are just pissing away money and honestly throwing money at a stalemate is not going to be popular around the world.
 
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6988281

Top generals warn that allies — Canada included — are running dangerously low on artillery shells​

Most of Canada's major allies have in recent months signed agreements with munitions suppliers to increase the monthly output of artillery rounds — mostly 155 millimetre ammunition, the kind used by Canada's M-777 howitzers.

The federal government has yet to reach its own deal to boost the supply of shells, the Commons defence committee was told Thursday.

"I am very concerned about our ammunition stocks," said Eyre. "NATO high-readiness forces ask us to have what's called 30 days of supply.

"If we were to consume munitions [at] the same rate that we're seeing them [fired] in Ukraine, we would be out in some cases in days and it would take years to restock."
Click to expand...

'Why is there no urgency?'​

Opposition critics said they're mystified by the fact that Canada hasn't already made a deal to accelerate production with GDOT-C, which has three plants in Quebec and 1,500 employees.

"This is the hottest, perhaps the hottest military commodity in the world right now," said Conservative MP Pat Kelly during last week's defence committee hearing. "Why is there no urgency on getting the production ramped up?"

Christyn Cianfarani is president and CEO of the Canadian Association of Defence and Security Industries (CADSI). She told the Commons defence committee this week that while she is aware of proposals to increase shell production, no legally binding agreement has been signed to date.

"I have not seen these proposals, but I do understand from companies that proposals have been put into the Government of Canada to increase shell production to modify the [production] lines, particularly for 155 [shells]," Cianfarani said.
Click to expand...

Late Thursday, testifying before the same committee, the defence department official in charge of procurement, Troy Crosby, said the federal government had received proposals almost a year ago from two of the companies that are part of the ammunition framework.

He said they proposed setting up a production line to manufacture the M-795 variant of the shell — a $200 million plan was approved and recommended to government.

"Since that time, the industry estimates have doubled to $400 million, and we are now re-looking at that investment," Crosby said, noting the money would be for setting up the production lines only, not the purchase of the shells.

He offered no timeline for a decision on the revised proposal. Once approved it would apparently take three years before the factories could begin turning out ammunition, Crosby said.
Click to expand...

LOL.
 
yrt+viva=1system said:

Top generals warn that allies — Canada included — are running dangerously low on artillery shells​

Click to expand...
I don’t think Canada has produced a complete artillery round since the middle of the last century.

ottawacitizen.com

As Ukraine war rages on, U.S. examines whether Canadian firms can replenish ammunition stockpiles

The U.S. wants to gather information on firms to determine which might be able to help build 12,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition a month.
ottawacitizen.com ottawacitizen.com

Products Overview | General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems - Canada

General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems – Canada is a world-class developer and manufacturer of all-caliber ammunition and energetic materials intended for the military and armed police forces.
www.gd-otscanada.com www.gd-otscanada.com
 
With all the issues in the Middle East, I wonder what effect this will have in Ukraine.

Will nations stop their military support to Ukraine and focus on Israel?
 
Richard White said:
With all the issues in the Middle East, I wonder what effect this will have in Ukraine.

Will nations stop their military support to Ukraine and focus on Israel?
Click to expand...
It's certainly stealing all the attention and pushing Ukraine down the news cycle, especially with the very slow progress of the offensive.
 
Towered said:
It's certainly stealing all the attention and pushing Ukraine down the news cycle, especially with the very slow progress of the offensive.
Click to expand...

That was my point.

With Israel stealing the attention and the middle eastern powers not being as powerful as Russia it makes military intervention more palatable.

It could steal the spotlight from Ukraine.
 
This may actually end up working more to help as unlike when the Russians invaded Ukraine. Israel backed off saying that it was outright aggression, Ukraine immediately came to Israel's side stating that all their territory should be respected
 
kEiThZ said:
Good news to a point. But they also gave them the old version of ATACMS which is short range and is a cluster bomb. They can do damage with it, like the airfield. But it won't work for something like a reinforced headquarters building or a bridge mooring.
Click to expand...
Drip feeding again...and then voicing frustration that results aren't coming fast enough. The West/NATO is simultaneously supporting and hindering Ukraine. Gee, I wonder what message that sends to Russia.

When will we get serious about ending this?
 
In all honesty, when all European militaries have modernized and used Ukraine as an excuse to buy all new equipment and give them their cast offs. This isn't about supporting Ukraine. This is about using Ukraine as an excuse to upgrade existing systems. Why do you think it is that Canada support is so little? We give zero care about our military, therefore do not want to upgrade other European and the states are doing frankly, it's sad.
 
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