rbt
Senior Member
You're using those numbers like they have meaning of some kind. TTC estimates are regularly missed by +- 50%.
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Transit City: Sheppard East Debate
- Thread starter unimaginative2
- Start date
You're using those numbers like they have meaning of some kind. TTC estimates are regularly missed by +- 50%.
Dan416
Senior Member
fanoftoronto
Active Member
Ansem
Banned
The tricky part about Sheppard East is that both numbers are right...
The TTC studied 2 different routes:
RTES numbers was Don Mills to STC 8400
Transit City: Don Mills to Morningside/Meadowvale area 5000
By TTC's logic, they are correct to say that LRT makes more sense...5000 doesn't warrant a subway...
But the TTC was also right in 2001 to say that Don Mills to STC needed a subway at 8400 and that it would be a success...
The problem here in this HUGE debate...
Which route makes more sense????
Don Mills to STC or Don Mills to Meadowvale?
SunriseChampion
Senior Member
What's the demand estimate for completing infrastructure projects that have been started and were never finished?
Just asking.
nfitz
Superstar
What applies? The Sheppard EA doesn't say anything about 5000 pphpd for the Sheppard LRT ... it says 3,000 pphpd for the Sheppard LRT ... the 5,000 for if it was built as subway.
fanoftoronto
Active Member
As it was noted 2 posts back by Ansem the demand estimates are for two different destinations. I'm proposing building the subway to STC which the RTES says the demand is 8400 pphpd. This number is within reasonable limits as the subway connects two nodes where employment and density is high.
I am not proposing to build the subway to Morningside/Meadowvale for which the demand is only 5000 pphpd as you noted. I apologize if I had not made this clear.
nfitz
Superstar
This thread is about the planned Sheppard East LRT. If your going to compare apples to oranges, that makes it difficult to follow.
From the RTES, I'd assume that the peak ridership is somewhere west of Don Mills. If not, the implication is, that if you extend the Sheppard subway to the Sheppard/Kennedy the peak ridership is 7,200 ... but if you keep going to Morningside there are less riders? Either that, or the information in the RTES is out-of-date.
Dan416
Senior Member
This is what SOS proposed.
Fresh Start
Banned
I sincerely doubt that Sheppard east of Neilson will ever generate 5000 pphpd levels of demand. Not even Finch West a far, far more heavily used corridor will see this, withits present day 1300pphpd and projected rush hour max of 2800pphpd by 2031. Sheppard East with only 28,000 users a day, most of which stem from the western end of the route, has too much going against it to ever be a worthwhile transit upgrade investment: the proximity of the 401 which is largely congestion free east of the DVP/404 most of the day; its cut off isolated nature from the greater region east of Markham Road (i.e. no direct arterial connections to Durham or York); the Midtown-Seaton GO corridor transit potentiality; Malvern's population growth maxing out with little room for further expansion. Add to this the fact the LRT ROW fails to link to major transit hubs nor trip generators and it has the markings of fail written all over it. I'd really like to see where the ridership's going to come from after the SRT extension into Malvern is built.
nfitz
Superstar
No one has ever suggested it would. 5000 would be between Don Mills Station and Consumers Road. You wouldn't see such numbers at Kennedy either.
rbt
Senior Member
I don't believe either because, as I stated earlier, TTC regularly misses in their estimates by +-50%. Sheppards numbers are launch were well below expected.
RTES estimates were put together before Sheppard had actual passengers.
I don't believe the LRT number, and the RTES number is almost certainly incorrect.
Dan416
Senior Member
Now that Sheppard actually is open, and has been in operation for a good while, and ridership has grown, I think it's perfectly reasonable to extend it. Ridership will only go up as the subway gets extended. And it's been pointed out on numerous occasions that Sheppard is actually a success not a failure when comparing with other subway lines elsewhere in the world.
Rainforest
Senior Member
^ Also, it should be noted that the ridership on the existing section of Sheppard subway will receive a considerable boost if the subway is extended. And that means better utilization of the already existing asset.
Dan416
Senior Member
Plus the longer Sheppard is the more it'll draw riders from parallel routes (Eglinton, Finch). That's why SOS sees Sheppard extending from Downsview to STC, at that length it'd actually rival Bloor-Danforth as a crosstown route.