Transit City: Sheppard East Debate

[nfitz]

Don Mills to Lapsley is a more congested part of Sheppard East, so if the bus makes 15 kph there, it is consistent with 17 kph average for the whole route.

Fair enough ... but it's also the least-used part of the route - the majority of the riders on the bus would see less than an average of 17 km/hr

Btw, light rail also will be a bit slower on the western section of Sheppard East, since the average distance between stops is smaller there.

Only a bit smaller ... leaving Don Mills, Lapsley is the 20th stop. Average spacing then would be 500 metres. From Lapsey to Morningside would be a further 9 stops in 4.8 km with an average spacing of 533 metres. The first leg is assisted with only having 2 stops for the first 1,900 metres.

 

[fanoftoronto]

There is neither the demand for subway, nor the cash to build it. It makese no sense!

There is ample demand for a subway. check the sheppard subway EA, the projected demand was 8000-9000 which is the limit for LRT and just enough for a subway.

As for money, the current LRT is not as cheap as Miller and Giambrone touted it to be. It costs $950 MILLION!! the original estimate was $555 million. As time goes by, this number is only going to increase never decrease.

I say use the money allocated for the Sheppard LRT plus another $750 million to extend the subway ~8 km to STC as it was originally planned!!

 

[kEiThZ]

This is the problem with using averages. They cover up a lot. Take that Don Mills to Lapsley stretch. I have done that stretch regularly and am familiar with it. Yes, it's 10km at 15 kph. However, what those numbers hide is that the slowest speed and the bulk of the ridership is from Don Mills till Agincourt. After McCowan, that bus is flying. And the stops are pretty much at LRT spacing here. The further east you move the transfer point, that faster the average bus speed will be on this stretch because you'll eliminate the slowest portion of the route out of the math. As for ridership, anybody who suggests there's a lot of 'local' ridership has not taken the 85 from end to end. Again, the bulk of medium distance riding is west of McCowan. And it's mostly people getting on at major intersections to get off at another major intersection...ie people who would ride a subway a few stops.

What's there east of McCowan pretty much already approximates the upcoming LRT. Stop spacing is about the same. Stop placement is about the same. Headways are going to be pretty close. So basically the only real benefit is a slight upgrade in comfort for riders who live at the margins, while screwing the bulk of riders west of McCowan out of much better rapid transit.

Nobody has yet shown me, how this will help the tons of riders who live on Finch or Steeles, either. Even most of the ridership from Malvern is from well north of Sheppard. There isn't much ridership from south of Sheppard cause the neighbourhoods there are divided by the 401. So who does this help again? If they built this thing on Finch, I would have no problem whatsoever. And I probably would not have bothered even with SOS. But there is no case to be made for Sheppard at all. It's the height of waste. All to purposely kill of subway expansion for good. For a city that's always short of transit dollars, it's a remarkably poor and short-sighted decision.

 

[nfitz]

There is ample demand for a subway. check the sheppard subway EA, the projected demand was 8000-9000 which is the limit for LRT and just enough for a subway

That was west of Don Mills on the section already constructed. Check TTC's 10-year more recent EA for the Sheppard East LRT; the projected demand for subway east of Don Mills was only 5,000.

 

[nfitz]

Nobody has yet shown me, how this will help the tons of riders who live on Finch or Steeles, either.

It won't ... nor do they say it will. TTC's own for Sheppard LRT recognizes that the LRT won't be capturing traffic off parallel routes that are 2 to 4 km away.

 

[kEiThZ]

It won't ... nor do they say it will. TTC's own for Sheppard LRT recognizes that the LRT won't be capturing traffic off parallel routes that are 2 to 4 km away.

Then what's the point of this thing? Take away riders from Agincourt and there's barely a case for bus service east of McCowan.

 

[EnviroTO]

I think their projections showed that the Sheppard East bus route would have double the ridership in 10 to 15 years time and they can't handle that, especially with growing traffic on the street, by simply adding busses. The LRT was justified with just the 85 and 190 bus routes alone.

 

[kEiThZ]

I think their projections showed that the Sheppard East bus route would have double the ridership in 10 to 15 years time and they can't handle that, especially with growing traffic on the street, by simply adding busses. The LRT was justified with just the 85 and 190 bus routes alone.

Yes, but where is that ridership increase coming from? Most of it is coming from west of McCowan. Take that away and you don't have much. And it's really only the 85 we are concerned with since the 190 will still be running even after the LRT is up.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

Can people stop repeating "17km/hr"? That's not what the Sheppard bus runs at. 17.5km/hr is just the currently scheduled round trip time, from departing Don Mills to departing Don Mills, via Meadowvale, during the pm rush. That's not the real speed on any stretch, or at any time, or of the 190 on any stretch or at any time. It includes 2 minutes of terminal time (other routes/times have zero terminal time, while some have 5 or more minutes of it). Midday speeds are 21.7km/hr, early evening is 21.3, morning is 19.4 (and it's 19.4 with 5 minutes of terminal time, meaning it'd be 20.6 with zero). Then there's Saturday and Sunday. If the real travel speed between Don Mills and, say, Markham works out to 15km/hr at 5pm, that means the rest of the route is already running over 20km/hr.

What does an LRT figure of 22-23km/hr include? A full round trip including the two terminal turnovers? How much time waiting at the terminal? How much faster in the off-peak or how much slower during the peak? The simple reality is that most people who ride the 85/190 do not do so at 5pm going eastbound; that's just the largest single blob, though we do need to build transit for these peak blobs. Even if "22-23km/hr" is the actual travelling speed, that is actually *slower* for some riders. What if those 2 terminal minutes were removed? What if a few queue jumps were added, each saving even a few seconds? What if an exit tunnel from Don Mills station to the eastbound lanes of Sheppard was built? The bus routinely sits for a whole minute waiting to turn left onto Sheppard. What if Rocket service was added east of Kennedy? We already know it saves minutes over the 85 even over only a 5km stretch. What if fare collection was changed so that you didn't have 10 students in a row fishing for their student cards or 10 people fishing for change and asking for transfers? 30s, 30s, 1m, 2m, 30s, 1m, 30s, 3m...each improvement is minor unless you add them up. The LRT's 22-23km/hr figure already includes features like signal priority or POP. It's not rapid transit if regular bus service is more rapid even after the LRT line is modelled with advantages and optimism.

We're spending $1.2 billion and getting no speed out of the deal. If people think ridership will double just because of rail bias, they are out to lunch. It won't happen. There's absolutely no question that buses can handle demand for the foreseeable future and that buses can be improved substantially. Extend the stubway not now, but in the future when circumstances change. Why the rush to 'finish' the transit map with LRT lines?

The language used in the Sheppard LRT EA is certainly bizarre, with phrases like "if a subway were constructed" and "if the faster speed of a subway or elevated transit line is used in the modelling." We are not 100% sure that the projections are for a transferless subway extension, just something that moves at the speed of a subway. If the ridership model they used was input with an LRT speed of 100km/hr, would the projections have said 50,000 riders per hour? If the LRT was modelled at 21-22km/hr instead of 22-23km/hr, would 3000 become 2700? This modelling sounds reasonable on paper when talking about cumulative ridership, but individual people do not base their decision to ride or not ride based on a 1km/hr difference or a time savings of 1 or 2 minutes...they need to be guaranteed a minimum improvement that exceeds headways, and that won't happen with the LRT, even in places (near Victoria Park) where the 85/190 buses do get clogged.

If anyone says ridership on the 85 and the 190 will double on their own, it's to justify the LRT. That will obviously not happen in reality...not a chance. The population along the overall corridor is rising slightly, but won't come anywhere close to doubling in the next few decades, and should actually drop somewhat in Malvern. Even if total ridership explodes, the effect of improvements to routes like the Stouffville GO line, the effect of the SRT extension, etc., could eat up peak loads. So if population won't do it, and drivers won't switch, and people from other routes won't switch, and some of Sheppard's current riders will switch to other lines, and buses can be made faster, why do we need to spend $1.2B here? Why spend a fortune on bike lanes and landscaping when we could be using transit funding to actually fund transit?

 

[EnviroTO]

Yes, but where is that ridership increase coming from? Most of it is coming from west of McCowan. Take that away and you don't have much.

That is true but a single LRT line from Don Mills to Morningside is probably preferable to an LRT from Don Mills to McCowan and a bus from McCowan to Meadowvale. Perhaps LRT from Yonge to McCowan and a bus from there to Meadowvale would be the perfect fit but converting the Sheppard West subway to LRT is unpalatable. They probably won't send all vehicles to Meadowvale and I would imagine that the bulk of the cost of building the Sheppard East LRT is actually being spent west of McCowan since the compicated parts (rail corridors, 404, Don Mills station) are all west of McCowan.

 

[kEiThZ]

That is true but a single LRT line from Don Mills to Morningside is probably preferable to an LRT from Don Mills to McCowan and a bus from McCowan to Meadowvale. Perhaps LRT from Yonge to McCowan and a bus from there to Meadowvale would be the perfect fit but converting the Sheppard West subway to LRT is unpalatable. They probably won't send all vehicles to Meadowvale and I would imagine that the bulk of the cost of building the Sheppard East LRT is actually being spent west of McCowan since the compicated parts (rail corridors, 404, Don Mills station) are all west of McCowan.

Well, I would personally advocate for a subway extension till Agincourt and if a light BRT or LRT is warranted then take that to Meadowvale. As long as they have the SRT extension (in whatever form it takes), it will divert most of the ridership from the east anyway, and the subway can cover the higher demand portion of the corridor.

 

[Rainforest]

That is true but a single LRT line from Don Mills to Morningside is probably preferable to an LRT from Don Mills to McCowan and a bus from McCowan to Meadowvale. Perhaps LRT from Yonge to McCowan and a bus from there to Meadowvale would be the perfect fit but converting the Sheppard West subway to LRT is unpalatable. They probably won't send all vehicles to Meadowvale and I would imagine that the bulk of the cost of building the Sheppard East LRT is actually being spent west of McCowan since the compicated parts (rail corridors, 404, Don Mills station) are all west of McCowan.

That makes sense; they don't want to increase the number of transfers on Sheppard East even further (subway / LRT / bus), therefore once they switch to LRT at Don Mills, they have to take it all the way to Meadowvale.

However, for the price of that LRT they could extend the subway to Warden, and that configuration would improve transit for a larger number of people (because of the numerous connecting bus routes) than SELRT (which will be useful for the Sheppard proper only).

 

[scarberiankhatru]

That makes sense; they don't want to increase the number of transfers on Sheppard East even further (subway / LRT / bus), therefore once they switch to LRT at Don Mills, they have to take it all the way to Meadowvale.

You are aware that a transfer will be added at Meadowvale, right? The Sheppard bus doesn't end there.

 

[EnviroTO]

You are aware that a transfer will be added at Meadowvale, right? The Sheppard bus doesn't end there.

85A is a rather insignificant part of the route though. A 95, 38, or 86 branch could cover it off.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

85A is a rather insignificant part of the route though. A 95, 38, or 86 branch could cover it off.

More people would be affected by the added transfer at Meadowvale than will actually benefit from a one-seat ride from Meadowvale to Don Mills. The 85's ridership doesn't suddenly become insignificant at Meadowvale. At least at a place like Markham, if the SRT is extended, you could make a case that a transfer would not be a burden to the overwhelming proportion of riders because a high percentage would transfer anyway. That's just not what happens at Meadowvale. The only other place where it would/could happen is the Agincourt/Midtown GO interchange.

The 85A, the 190, the 24A, the 224, the 167, the 169...there's little evidence of actual thought having gone into solving these problems. Ram the LRT through now, ask questions later, or never.