Sheppard Line 4 Subway Extension (Proposed)

[innsertnamehere]

hah. The high 1990's figures was because they used insane job growth projections in NYCC and STC (as in there being 2/3rds the amount of office space in NYCC as there is downtown), not how many condos there are.

The projections for the sheppard LRT account for large amounts of residential development along the corridor, but not the insane growth that was used to justify the subway in the 1990's. ridership for the LRT is also quite high for an LRT, but far from full and far from subway levels.

Unless you think that NYCC is suddenly going to have its office space increase by roughly 400% and have STC's office space increase in 1000%+, the Sheppard subway doesn't make sense.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

The projections for the sheppard LRT account for large amounts of residential development along the corridor, but not the insane growth that was used to justify the subway in the 1990's. ridership for the LRT is also quite high for an LRT, but far from full and far from subway levels.

Yeah. The SELRT should have room for at least 2.5x ridership growth with modern light rail tech. I have a hard time seeing it grow that much anytime soon.

 

[MrsNesbitt]

I still say build the SELRT as soon as possible to a. Do some actual good for the low-income moderately-dense communities along Sheppard in Scarborough, and b. Kill talk of a Sheppard Subway eastern extension. Then convert the existing subway tunnel to underground LRT, extend underground west to Downsview, jog north up Dufferin to Finch, then connect to the FWLRT. And then bingo, you've got a dynamite northern crosstown rapid transit line. Pat self on back in congratulations.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I'm talking about the SRT replacement, a.k.a Scarborough subway. It does nothing for Guildwood, but look what happened...

It passes within 450 metres of it. Also there was talk of a spur to UTS, which is in Scarborough-Guildwood. And a second line continuing from there, back to Kennedy.

That would be the Malvern LRT.

Yeah that was the Malvern LRT. That's my other big project (ehlow ) that I want to see built. The commute from places like Guildwood and Port Union.

Except for the fact that the Sheppard extension has more development on it than the SRT replacement extension, particularly the Consumers Road office park. Yes, we will all say that Bloor-Danforth goes "downtown" but Bloor-Yonge is the northern end of downtown with only a small fraction of downtown's development. I think that ridership on the Sheppard extension ought to be the same, maybe a bit higher than the SRT extension. Don't believe the ridership fiction.

Also if the Liberals get a majority tomorrow they will probably reintroduce the transit tax proposal that was killed in the hope the NDP would pass the budget, this will reopen all the transit debates yet again.

The other threat to SELRT is say the ON Liberals win, instead of cancelling or changing it, they could continuously delay it into the future, perhaps prioritizing GO electrification ahead of it.

When we're talking a theoretical Sheppard subway, the question is what route will it take, and how far east on Sheppard? Does it go to McCowan to meet up with the Scarborough subway (if that gets built as well)? Previous iterations showed it going to STC, but how is that affected by the McCowan subway?

First things first. With the subway, I think more people would be attracted to ride it. But that does not mean ridership would explode. While neither subway meets the criteria, they will both make Scarborough feel like " a part of the city". Andrew, neither line has enough development, but that may be because of the stubs. Ehlow, most version of the subway before the deal on the Bloor Danforth Extension last had it beginning at Sheppard Yonge or Downsview and ending at STC. This is part of why the Sheppard subway so expensive, because it has to pass under or across two highways: Don Valley Parkway and the 401 East. Now, we could end it at McCowan, which would bring the cost down a bit, but it would not go down to Scarborough Town Centre. If the Bloor Danforth Extension goes up to Sheppard, there would be a forced transfer at McCowan. On the bright side, the Bloor Danforth can go to Finch and McNicoll later on, providing service to far north Scarborough and Markham.To me, if we are building the subway, my second choice would actually be to bring it to Markham road, to get some from of RT at least a little east if we are going to force a transfer. Bringing Sheppard to STC makes sense because you can run through trains with the BD and eliminate the transfer at McCowan. It would also drive traffic to Scarborough Town Centre itself, a big plus in itself. Two subways to STC would help rejuvenate Central Scarborough and make it a hot spot neighborhood.

As an average person who doesn't work in transit, why would we not trust transit professional's ridership projections?

What source would be more reliable than a professional paid by the city to make such projections? Surely someone posting on an anonymous forum doesn't supersede that in terms of authority.

Well in fairness to Andrew, Metrolinx endorsed the SRT, and then switched to subway because of political reasons. If ridership projections matter then they should stand their ground.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

hah. The high 1990's figures was because they used insane job growth projections in NYCC and STC (as in there being 2/3rds the amount of office space in NYCC as there is downtown), not how many condos there are.

The projections for the sheppard LRT account for large amounts of residential development along the corridor, but not the insane growth that was used to justify the subway in the 1990's. ridership for the LRT is also quite high for an LRT, but far from full and far from subway levels.

Unless you think that NYCC is suddenly going to have its office space increase by roughly 400% and have STC's office space increase in 1000%+, the Sheppard subway doesn't make sense.

Toronto should lower its corporate taxes sometime.

Yeah. The SELRT should have room for at least 2.5x ridership growth with modern light rail tech. I have a hard time seeing it grow that much anytime soon.

I still say build the SELRT as soon as possible to a. Do some actual good for the low-income moderately-dense communities along Sheppard in Scarborough, and b. Kill talk of a Sheppard Subway eastern extension. Then convert the existing subway tunnel to underground LRT, extend underground west to Downsview, jog north up Dufferin to Finch, then connect to the FWLRT. And then bingo, you've got a dynamite northern crosstown rapid transit line. Pat self on back in congratulations.

I admire your passion

 

[BurlOak]

Well in fairness to Andrew, Metrolinx endorsed the SRT, and then switched to subway because of political reasons. If ridership projections matter then they should stand their ground.

Maybe Metrolinx could just change their ridership numbers instead.

 

[ehlow]

When you have absurdly high ridership projections for the Sheppard subway in the 1990s and then absurdly low ridership projections for the Sheppard LRT in the 2000s, you know that the ridership fiction is deliberately fudged to make whatever dumb plan the politicians want look good. In reality the actual ridership depends on how many condos get built along a particular route, which is difficult to predict.

Even if I were to believe that the current ridership projections are not accurate (which I don't necessarily agree with), it doesn't logically follow that real ridership is high enough for a subway.

If we assume the projections aren't accurate, that means we don't know, could be high or low.

If we assume that counting condos is the accurate measure of ridership (which I don't agree with), then by that measure you'd be convinced that the ridership isn't there, because I drove around Sheppard in Scarborough and there weren't as many condos at all compared to places like King West downtown.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

...extend underground west to Downsview, jog north up Dufferin to Finch, then connect to the FWLRT. And then bingo, you've got a dynamite northern crosstown rapid transit line. Pat self on back in congratulations.

I used to be supportive of that, but now I'm not so sure. I'm not at all convinced that very many people would use the LRT between Sheppard Yonge and Downsview Stations. And speaking from personal experience, I can say that the 84 bus makes for a really short hop between Sheppard-Yonge and Downsview Stations. Any service improvements on that stretch should come in the form of a bus lane and perhaps improved frequencies on the 84.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

First things first. With the subway, I think more people would be attracted to ride it. But that does not mean ridership would explode. While neither subway meets the criteria, they will both make Scarborough feel like " a part of the city".

With that logic, huge parts of downtown must not feel like "part of the city"

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Toronto should lower its corporate taxes sometime.

I really don't think that's the problem.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Even if I were to believe that the current ridership projections are not accurate (which I don't necessarily agree with), it doesn't logically follow that real ridership is high enough for a subway.

If we assume the projections aren't accurate, that means we don't know, could be high or low.

If we assume that counting condos is the accurate measure of ridership (which I don't agree with), then by that measure you'd be convinced that the ridership isn't there, because I drove around Sheppard in Scarborough and there weren't as many condos at all compared to places like King West downtown.

If what Andrew is saying about the condos is correct, downtown must be needing dozens of new subway lines by now

 

[robmausser]

I still say build the SELRT as soon as possible to a. Do some actual good for the low-income moderately-dense communities along Sheppard in Scarborough, and b. Kill talk of a Sheppard Subway eastern extension. Then convert the existing subway tunnel to underground LRT, extend underground west to Downsview, jog north up Dufferin to Finch, then connect to the FWLRT. And then bingo, you've got a dynamite northern crosstown rapid transit line. Pat self on back in congratulations.

I've personally (amongst others) have had this very idea as well, but have been continually shot down on the merits that apparently it would cost an insanely large sum of money to convert the Sheppard subway to LRT operation.

The tunnels are too low in cut and cover portions for pantograph operation. They would have to be very carefully modified, and anything that requires careful modification is super expensive (see Union station)

The platforms would have to be cut out too. There isnt room to raise the tracks, as there is barely enough room to fit the pantographs in there already.

Again, huge expense.

Power supplies would have to change. The power supplies for 3rd rails are completely different than pantograph. I believe one runs on AC and one on DC. Can't remember which is which.

Tracks would have to be ripped out and replaced. They are not the right guage.

All in all, a large expense. And for what? A downgrade! LRT does not have the same capacity as subway cars. So you are spending all of this money to downgrade a system, and for what? Just to eliminate a transfer point.

 

[nfitz]

Toronto should lower its corporate taxes sometime.

Toronto has no corporate tax. Like everywhere else it has property tax for commercial property. There's been a program in place since the early Miller years to drop commercial property tax rates relative to residential, to slowly rebalance it.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I've personally (amongst others) have had this very idea as well, but have been continually shot down on the merits that apparently it would cost an insanely large sum of money to convert the Sheppard subway to LRT operation.

IIRC, about $1 Billion. Not a huge amount of money compared to most of our transit projects, but given how few people will use it, the conversion can't be a very heigh priority.

The platforms would have to be cut out too. There isnt room to raise the tracks, as there is barely enough room to fit the pantographs in there already

Again, huge expense.

.

Our subway platforms are hollow shells. It's simple to demolish them to accommodate the 100% low floors of the LRT, assuming that there aren't any utilities or critical infrastructure under those platforms. Lowering the platforms should be one of the simpler and cheaper tasks during the conversion.

Power supplies would have to change. The power supplies for 3rd rails are completely different than pantograph. I believe one runs on AC and one on DC. Can't remember which is which.

I don't think we'd necessarily need to convert the underground portion to panto. There are LRVs that have both third rail and panto power collection. I'm not sure how difficult it would be to convert our LRVs to third rail and panto operation.

Tracks would have to be ripped out and replaced. They are not the right guage.

To this day I can't understand why ML is using standard gauge rather than TTC gauge. I'd think that if you're building additional light rail lines in the city with the largest light rail network on the continent, it would be logical to make sure that the gauge of the new light rail lines match the gauge of the old. But apparently I'm wrong.

All in all, a large expense. And for what? A downgrade! LRT does not have the same capacity as subway cars. So you are spending all of this money to downgrade a system, and for what? Just to eliminate a transfer point.

Yup. Unless there would be significant time savings, I don't think it's worth it.

 

[WislaHD]

I used to be supportive of that, but now I'm not so sure. I'm not at all convinced that very many people would use the LRT between Sheppard Yonge and Downsview Stations. And speaking from personal experience, I can say that the 84 bus makes for a really short hop between Sheppard-Yonge and Downsview Stations. Any service improvements on that stretch should come in the form of a bus lane and perhaps improved frequencies on the 84.

It's not about ridership, it is about connectivity and connecting riders on the Spadina line to destinations on the Yonge line and vice versa. I bet you once you open Sheppard-Yonge to Downsview, ridership of the Sheppard line would increase and it would not longer be a stub.