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Sheppard Line 4 Subway Extension (Proposed)

TheTigerMaster said:
It's a possibly. I wouldn't say it's very likely. The forces are really working against people who want a Sheppard Subway extension

1. Chances are that the Liberals will be reelected with a minority or even a majority. They have said that the current plan is to continue with SELRT.

2. Come October, chances are that our next mayor will be pro-LRT with a pro-LRT council. Would the province go ahead with a Sheppard Subway without support from the mayor and council? Maybe. But it would be unprecedented. I wouldn't say its particularly likely.

3. What are the chances that they'll be a byelection in ridings that the SELRT passes through? Not very likely

4. Unlike the Scarborough Subway, there is absolutely no good cost/benefit argument to be made for the Sheppard Subway. At least with the Scarborough Subway we could say that 14,000 pphpd is decent. No way that the same argument could be made for Sheppard's pathetic BRT level of usage. Now I suppose that in the case of a byelection the Liberals could ignore this and build the subway, but the certainly isn't a good thing for the people that want it built.

5. Where the heck will the money come from to build this

6. IIRC, the process for awarding contracts for SELRT will begin shortly. That makes a cancelation that much more unlikely.
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1. That means nothing. The Liberals also wanted to do the SRT, which would have been open in 6 months, too.
2. What if Tory wins? He has said the LRT not a priroty
3. The Scarborough Liberal Caucus support Sheppard. While this point is correct, it it won't have an effect one way or another.
4. There is no cost benefit to either one. Every second train will be turned back at Brimley or Kennedy on the BD probably.
5. Same place it always does, other stuff. Just Finch and Sheppard being gone is 2 billion
6. Just like they are digging holes on Eglinton. Time will Tell.
 
denfromoakvillemilton said:
1. That means nothing. The Liberals also wanted to do the SRT, which would have been open in 6 months, too.
2. What if Tory wins? He has said the LRT not a priroty
3. The Scarborough Liberal Caucus support Sheppard. While this point is correct, it it won't have an effect one way or another.
4. There is no cost benefit to either one. Every second train will be turned back at Brimley or Kennedy on the BD probably.
5. Same place it always does, other stuff. Just Finch and Sheppard being gone is 2 billion
6. Just like they are digging holes on Eglinton. Time will Tell.
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I should also add that each of these individual points can be refuted. But in aggregate they make it pretty hard to be optimistic about the Sheppard Subway extension (if you support that thing)
 
denfromoakvillemilton said:
I never understood that at all. Why would a far east Scarborough riding care about Sheppard Ave?
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??? Sheppard goes far east in Scarborough. The eastern end of the Sheppard East LRT is a lot closer to Pickering than Scarborough Town Centre ... and the northern edge of the Scarborough-Guildwood riding is the 401, just south of Sheppard.
 
nfitz said:
??? Sheppard goes far east in Scarborough. The eastern end of the Sheppard East LRT is a lot closer to Pickering than Scarborough Town Centre ... and the northern edge of the Scarborough-Guildwood riding is the 401, just south of Sheppard.
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The subway or LRT does not pass through Scarborough guildwood still. These people are going to Kennedy (or Brimley when it is built) or one of the GO stations.
TheTigerMaster said:
I should also add that each of these individual points can be refuted. But in aggregate they make it pretty hard to be optimistic about the Sheppard Subway extension (if you support that thing)
Click to expand...

I don't. I'm just looking at the backroom tricks by Brad Dugid and I still think there will be another attempt to get Scarborough to be a subway. They should convert entire thing to LRT.
 
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The other threat to SELRT is say the ON Liberals win, instead of cancelling or changing it, they could continuously delay it into the future, perhaps prioritizing GO electrification ahead of it.

When we're talking a theoretical Sheppard subway, the question is what route will it take, and how far east on Sheppard? Does it go to McCowan to meet up with the Scarborough subway (if that gets built as well)? Previous iterations showed it going to STC, but how is that affected by the McCowan subway?
 
denfromoakvillemilton said:
I never understood that at all. Why would a far east Scarborough riding care about Sheppard Ave?
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I'm talking about the SRT replacement, a.k.a Scarborough subway. It does nothing for Guildwood, but look what happened...

14422303093_4b9bbbfeb4.jpg
 
denfromoakvillemilton said:
The subway or LRT does not pass through Scarborough guildwood still. These people are going to Kennedy (or Brimley when it is built) or one of the GO stations.
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It passes within 450 metres of it. Also there was talk of a spur to UTS, which is in Scarborough-Guildwood. And a second line continuing from there, back to Kennedy.
 
TheTigerMaster said:
4. Unlike the Scarborough Subway, there is absolutely no good cost/benefit argument to be made for the Sheppard Subway. At least with the Scarborough Subway we could say that 14,000 pphpd is decent. No way that the same argument could be made for Sheppard's pathetic BRT level of usage. Now I suppose that in the case of a byelection the Liberals could ignore this and build the subway, but the certainly isn't a good thing for the people that want it built.
Click to expand...

Except for the fact that the Sheppard extension has more development on it than the SRT replacement extension, particularly the Consumers Road office park. Yes, we will all say that Bloor-Danforth goes "downtown" but Bloor-Yonge is the northern end of downtown with only a small fraction of downtown's development. I think that ridership on the Sheppard extension ought to be the same, maybe a bit higher than the SRT extension. Don't believe the ridership fiction.

Also if the Liberals get a majority tomorrow they will probably reintroduce the transit tax proposal that was killed in the hope the NDP would pass the budget, this will reopen all the transit debates yet again.
 
As an average person who doesn't work in transit, why would we not trust transit professional's ridership projections?

What source would be more reliable than a professional paid by the city to make such projections? Surely someone posting on an anonymous forum doesn't supersede that in terms of authority.
 
ehlow said:
As an average person who doesn't work in transit, why would we not trust transit professional's ridership projections?

What source would be more reliable than a professional paid by the city to make such projections? Surely someone posting on an anonymous forum doesn't supersede that in terms of authority.
Click to expand...

When you have absurdly high ridership projections for the Sheppard subway in the 1990s and then absurdly low ridership projections for the Sheppard LRT in the 2000s, you know that the ridership fiction is deliberately fudged to make whatever dumb plan the politicians want look good. In reality the actual ridership depends on how many condos get built along a particular route, which is difficult to predict.
 
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