kEiThZ
Superstar
How does ripping up Sheppard between McCowan and Markham address bus congestion at Don Mills?
A bit of a set-back is no issue for Malvernites. Short-term pain for long-term gain.
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Sheppard East LRT - Cancel or Continue?
- Thread starter nfitz
- Start date
How does ripping up Sheppard between McCowan and Markham address bus congestion at Don Mills?
A bit of a set-back is no issue for Malvernites. Short-term pain for long-term gain.
nfitz
Superstar
I think EnviroTO is correct about timing.
Which raises an interesting scenario; if this whole thing goes back to start, and we see punding simply pulled and instead the $1-billion is used to make up shortfalls elsewhere (there doesn't seem enough budget to build the grade-separated SRT extension to Malvern for example) ... then it could easily be another 15-years before this come around again, and then with the 7-years or so of design, assessment and construction you have an opening date of 2031. But if you start building the LRT now, it would be operating in 2014. So what's better, LRT soon, or subway in a generation.
Which raises an interesting scenario; if this whole thing goes back to start, and we see punding simply pulled and instead the $1-billion is used to make up shortfalls elsewhere (there doesn't seem enough budget to build the grade-separated SRT extension to Malvern for example) ... then it could easily be another 15-years before this come around again, and then with the 7-years or so of design, assessment and construction you have an opening date of 2031. But if you start building the LRT now, it would be operating in 2014. So what's better, LRT soon, or subway in a generation.
Dan416
Senior Member
I think doing something once and doing it correctly is superior to doing something wrong and being stuck with it for decades (SRT).
nfitz
Superstar
SRT did it's job for a quarter-century; it was a far better solution for that time period than simply running buses along Ellesmere and Kennedy. Perhaps it would have been better as LRT; but even at this point it would be time to rebuild the track, and replace the vehicles.
Second_in_pie
Senior Member
EDIT: ^^ But I think there's a unanimous belief that subway is the obvious choice for the corridor. I'm sorry, but if you think that stopping 5 kilometers away from a major growth centre and then switching to a different technology for the last run is a good idea, you're sorely, sorely mistaken.
The argument that funding will suddenly disappear is moot as well. I think that everyone's still suffering from the memory of the Harris years. Harris was a totally isolated incident! No politician in their right mind, whether it be municipal or provincial, would take away funding from any of the current transit projects like Harris did. Even if a Mike Harris figure did come into the picture, I don't think there's anyone that would vote for them. Voters are smart enough to remember what Harris was like, so they'd be able to see the signs of a Harris-like platform, and wouldn't vote for them for countless reasons.
And then even if a Mike Harris did get elected (if!!!) Metrolinx is implementing programs to secure funding independent from the government. This could amount to $1 billion/year, which could easily cover a number of transit projects, meaning government funding is just extra.
And I have doubts that the LRT is going to get built in 3 years as planned. Since they're starting it at the very eastern segment of the line, it's only going to be useful to that Don Mills-Agincourt corridor at the very end of the project, which could probably start running into 5 or 6 years.
So the logic is basically built a LRT that could get built faster but won't fulfill long term requirements of the corridor? That's really a terrible argument, especially since the LRT will be costing us a pretty $1.1 billion dollars last estimate (which'll easily go even higher.)
Move Ontario 2020 is also in no way stimulus funding; it was designed way before the recession simply as a transit improvement plan.
Agreed, that's why we desperately need a subway. LRT won't be able to provide proper service to the huge number of people that exist in the NYC-STC corridor, and will be huge overkill on the rest of the route.
Why would that be? I think one of the things that destroys the credibility of the pro-SELRT arguments is "we need it now which we can't have with subway." It took 7 years to build the current Sheppard Subway, so I think 10 years for a subway is reasonable (it can be completed in sections as well.)
The argument that funding will suddenly disappear is moot as well. I think that everyone's still suffering from the memory of the Harris years. Harris was a totally isolated incident! No politician in their right mind, whether it be municipal or provincial, would take away funding from any of the current transit projects like Harris did. Even if a Mike Harris figure did come into the picture, I don't think there's anyone that would vote for them. Voters are smart enough to remember what Harris was like, so they'd be able to see the signs of a Harris-like platform, and wouldn't vote for them for countless reasons.
And then even if a Mike Harris did get elected (if!!!) Metrolinx is implementing programs to secure funding independent from the government. This could amount to $1 billion/year, which could easily cover a number of transit projects, meaning government funding is just extra.
And I have doubts that the LRT is going to get built in 3 years as planned. Since they're starting it at the very eastern segment of the line, it's only going to be useful to that Don Mills-Agincourt corridor at the very end of the project, which could probably start running into 5 or 6 years.
So the logic is basically built a LRT that could get built faster but won't fulfill long term requirements of the corridor? That's really a terrible argument, especially since the LRT will be costing us a pretty $1.1 billion dollars last estimate (which'll easily go even higher.)
Yes, it'll be horrible once we have all that extra money to spend after the recession is over! And I'm not sure, but I'm willing to guess that little of the specially designated infrastructure stimulus funds will be allocated to the SELRT, meaning they could easily be transferred to a subway instead.
Move Ontario 2020 is also in no way stimulus funding; it was designed way before the recession simply as a transit improvement plan.
Yep, same thing with Sheppard. Wasn't the EA finished some time ago? And the "started construction" is things that need to happen anyways, like the grade separation of the Stouffville Line; almost totally unrelated to the LRT.
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kEiThZ
Superstar
nfitz,
We don't need grade separated HRT (which is what ART Mk II really is) all the way to Malvern. A Transit City style LRT along Progress and the hydro corridor is good enough. It's cheaper, nearly as fast and allows for more stops. In fact, it's the perfect opportunity for applying LRT. Not having a stop at Markham or Milner as per the current proposed SRT extension is a serious flaw.
We don't need grade separated HRT (which is what ART Mk II really is) all the way to Malvern. A Transit City style LRT along Progress and the hydro corridor is good enough. It's cheaper, nearly as fast and allows for more stops. In fact, it's the perfect opportunity for applying LRT. Not having a stop at Markham or Milner as per the current proposed SRT extension is a serious flaw.
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EnviroTO
Senior Member
It doesn't. That is only part of the whole project. The reason they are building grade separation at Agincourt on Sheppard but not on Finch or Steeles is because it enables the LRT project which will be fully under way next year. It was the part which had engineering complete first so it is under construction now. The LRT from Don Mills to Victoria Park which is being engineered right now will address bus congestion between Don Mills and Victoria Park. The funding that was approved is paying for engineering work happening now.
Second_in_pie said:
Move Ontario 2020 is no different from the "Let's Move" plans of the past. There is no reason to believe Move Ontario 2020 has any more change of reaching fruition than Network 2011. During the good economic times of the mid to late 90s and the good economic times before this recession how much was really accomplished? It will take a long time for the governments to recover from the recession. Miller's replacement will likely try to prove their ability to balance a budget or have low tax increases right off the bat. Harper post recession will likely not be spending much because they have a huge deficit and GST cuts to pay for. Hudak, if elected, is a Mike Harris and not a John Tory. While McGuinty seems to have decent support now the eHealth, fiscal mismanagement issues, deficit, and 'have-not province' condition could cause serious issues in an election. There are a lot of reasons to make sure funding available now gets spent because history has shown that this money doesn't stick around.
Rainforest
Senior Member
IMO, the upgrade approach is the best: start building the light rail line from the East as planned, and at the same time, push for subway up to Agincourt.
On one hand, this prevents the risk of funds evaporating from Sheppard East altogether, and being shifted to cover cost overruns on other projects (LRT / subway / GO rail). Since the line will technically be under construction, those $950 million (less the funds already spent) will remain allocated for Sheppard East. So, even in the worst case scenario, all of Sheppard East gets rail service (default = LRT to Don Mills).
On the other hand, the upgrade approach will face much fewer objections. An attempt at outright cancellation of the LRT will trigger quite a bit of opposition - from residents and developers who count on that line already, and from politicians who had approved it and hence invested some of their credibility with this project.
Although the light rail line east of Agincourt, on its own, would not be the highest priority in 416, I do not consider it utterly useless. It will bring a speed improvement over buses, and will act as insurance against future traffic congestion (even if congestion does not exist there today). If 2-car trains are too big for ridership east of Agincourt, it can be operated with single cars but on better headways (say every 3.5 min vs 5 min).
Ironically, subway west of Agincourt - if it contributes to the creation of "downtown North York" - might actually boost the usefulness of LRT east of Agincourt.
On one hand, this prevents the risk of funds evaporating from Sheppard East altogether, and being shifted to cover cost overruns on other projects (LRT / subway / GO rail). Since the line will technically be under construction, those $950 million (less the funds already spent) will remain allocated for Sheppard East. So, even in the worst case scenario, all of Sheppard East gets rail service (default = LRT to Don Mills).
On the other hand, the upgrade approach will face much fewer objections. An attempt at outright cancellation of the LRT will trigger quite a bit of opposition - from residents and developers who count on that line already, and from politicians who had approved it and hence invested some of their credibility with this project.
Although the light rail line east of Agincourt, on its own, would not be the highest priority in 416, I do not consider it utterly useless. It will bring a speed improvement over buses, and will act as insurance against future traffic congestion (even if congestion does not exist there today). If 2-car trains are too big for ridership east of Agincourt, it can be operated with single cars but on better headways (say every 3.5 min vs 5 min).
Ironically, subway west of Agincourt - if it contributes to the creation of "downtown North York" - might actually boost the usefulness of LRT east of Agincourt.
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nfitz
Superstar
Umm ... you realise if that were true, then the poll would have everyone voting for the second option. You do realise that unanimous means that 100% agree with no exceptions ... and that's surely not the case here; or else we wouldn't have had this thread!
Second_in_pie
Senior Member
Perhaps if you read the post I was responding to, you might have realized that I was talking about the SRT instead of Sheppard Subway.
EDIT: And if it can't be unanimous if there's two out of a thousand people that disagree, I'll change my wording: I think there's a near unanimous belief that subway is the obvious choice for the corridor.
DOUBLE EDIT: Wow, that was your own post I was replying to! And you still didn't notice that I was talking about the B-D extension and not Sheppard?!
EDIT: And if it can't be unanimous if there's two out of a thousand people that disagree, I'll change my wording: I think there's a near unanimous belief that subway is the obvious choice for the corridor.
DOUBLE EDIT: Wow, that was your own post I was replying to! And you still didn't notice that I was talking about the B-D extension and not Sheppard?!
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Dan416
Senior Member
It does get a little confusing when we're talking about extending both Sheppard and Danfroth to STC. But I don't think you can ever say something is unanimous when you're talking about public opinion, even when something is really obvious (I doubt you'd get universal agreement that the earth is round).
The point is, a decisive MAJORITY prefer subway to replace the SRT to STC (and Sheppard to STC).
The point is, a decisive MAJORITY prefer subway to replace the SRT to STC (and Sheppard to STC).
Second_in_pie
Senior Member
I'd certainly say that a majority of people on this site prefer taking both the B-D and Sheppard Subway to STC, but I'm not so sure about the rest of the population.
I'd think that if people knew exactly what taking both subways to STC meant, and the purpose and pros/cons of continuing the SRT and building the SELRT, there would be a majority of people who'd take the subway option. Unfortunately, you can't always depend on people being informed. Everyone I know knows where STC is, and most people know what the Bloor Line is. But only a handful of people know what the SRT is, and even less know that it goes from the end of the B-D a short 5 km to Scarborough Centre, where it terminates. Of course, when I tell them that, they almost always go "but why would they do that?"
And I think there's a much greater preference to extending the B-D than Sheppard. Firstly, downtown Toronto is still many times bigger than NYCC, so obviously more people will support a subway connecting with downtown. Second, Sheppard is still seen as a disaster in the eyes of many. I think that the majority of people will have heard of the Sheppard line some years ago when there was still talk of it getting mothballed, when it was under a lot of pressure for not being as ridiculously crowded as the YUS. I bet that the people that have heard about Sheppard will remember that news article they read a couple years ago about the "disaster" that was the Sheppard subway and then say just that; it was a disaster. If you educated people better about it, there'd be a much larger part of the population that supports the subway, imo.
EDIT: Yeah, I realize the confusion, and it was wrong to say "unanimous," when either talking about the B-D or Sheppard. But a very large number of people that know the details of the SRT will say that it's better to be subway. Sheppard could be a bit more contested, but B-D should be obvious.
I'd think that if people knew exactly what taking both subways to STC meant, and the purpose and pros/cons of continuing the SRT and building the SELRT, there would be a majority of people who'd take the subway option. Unfortunately, you can't always depend on people being informed. Everyone I know knows where STC is, and most people know what the Bloor Line is. But only a handful of people know what the SRT is, and even less know that it goes from the end of the B-D a short 5 km to Scarborough Centre, where it terminates. Of course, when I tell them that, they almost always go "but why would they do that?"
And I think there's a much greater preference to extending the B-D than Sheppard. Firstly, downtown Toronto is still many times bigger than NYCC, so obviously more people will support a subway connecting with downtown. Second, Sheppard is still seen as a disaster in the eyes of many. I think that the majority of people will have heard of the Sheppard line some years ago when there was still talk of it getting mothballed, when it was under a lot of pressure for not being as ridiculously crowded as the YUS. I bet that the people that have heard about Sheppard will remember that news article they read a couple years ago about the "disaster" that was the Sheppard subway and then say just that; it was a disaster. If you educated people better about it, there'd be a much larger part of the population that supports the subway, imo.
EDIT: Yeah, I realize the confusion, and it was wrong to say "unanimous," when either talking about the B-D or Sheppard. But a very large number of people that know the details of the SRT will say that it's better to be subway. Sheppard could be a bit more contested, but B-D should be obvious.
kettal
Banned
And what anecdotal sources are you basing this statement on?
kEiThZ
Superstar
I base it on the decade and a half I spent growing up in Scarborough and the half decade I spent taking the SRT to get to university downtown. You will be hard pressed to find a Scarberian that has kind words to say about the SRT and the Kennedy transfer.
Every booster of the SRT on here at UT is a non-Scarberian who does not have the displeasure of taking the SRT and making that transfer daily.
kettal
Banned
Just as I thought, anecdotal.
In a fantasy world where money grows on trees, it's hard to argue with that, but in reality, where such things come out of all of our income or property taxes, there needs to be a cost-benefit analysis.
I admit I don't know what the cost-benefit analysis of all the options are. Maybe subway is the best. But something tells me that there's a much more cost-effective way to address the annoyances related to the transfer at Kennedy. And that capacity concerns here are not beyond the current SRT rebuild project.
It also should be mentioned that Kennedy is not that much an arbitrary transfer point. In the near future, it will make more sense for Scarberians heading downtown to use the GO train from Kennedy station.
In a fantasy world where money grows on trees, it's hard to argue with that, but in reality, where such things come out of all of our income or property taxes, there needs to be a cost-benefit analysis.
I admit I don't know what the cost-benefit analysis of all the options are. Maybe subway is the best. But something tells me that there's a much more cost-effective way to address the annoyances related to the transfer at Kennedy. And that capacity concerns here are not beyond the current SRT rebuild project.
It also should be mentioned that Kennedy is not that much an arbitrary transfer point. In the near future, it will make more sense for Scarberians heading downtown to use the GO train from Kennedy station.