Sheppard East LRT - Cancel or Continue?

[kettal]

Can they afford a 12-15 billion dollar purely LRT plan that proves to be ineffective at providing truly rapid transit in the city?

Building a transit system is like building a medieval cathedral. It starts with a plan and takes more than a generation to finish. Those cathedral, palaces and monuments would have turned out to be horrendous if they took only a decade and decided to pare away essential elements. Transit City in my books is doing exactly that: a mediocre rush job. They've responded to the "subway to every ward" cry with LRT to every ward. Neither is effective.

As for the impact on our progeny, I would venture to suggest that future generations will be damn grateful that we spent the money now when subways cost 300 million/km than when they have to build it at 1 billion/km in 20 years (if the current rate of inflation for construction projects holds). You will also note that the rate of inflation of construction projects is greater than prime and standard inflation combined. So from a strictly financial perspective, we would be better off going into debt to build as much infrastructure as possible today.

Future generations will be grateful that we spent 20 billion to do it right than 15 billion to do it so-so and leaving them with billions worth of work to do (to fill all of TC's gaps and flaws).

Are we grateful today for Mike Harris? It's looking more and more like 1995 again my friend. A premier who is running record deficits, and populace afraid of tax hikes.

I can guarantee you that Hudak will be pulling out the old scalpel.

I guess more stagnation will help future generations, right?

 

[kEiThZ]

Are we grateful today for Mike Harris? It's looking more and more like 1995 again my friend. A premier who is running record deficits, and populace afraid of tax hikes.

I can guarantee you that Hudak will be pulling out the old scalpel.

I guess more stagnation will help future generations, right?

The scare-mongering won't work out there and it won't get you anywhere here either. The 905 is significantly different today than it was in the mid-90s. Today, the 905 has the same issues as suburban 416 did in the 90s. You can bet that they aren't going to vote in a government that shuts down transit improvements for them either.

Beyond that, you obviously didn't get my point about transit taking a long time. Much longer than McGuinty or even potentially Hudak. Neither will be in power for a generation. At best they'll be in power for the better part of a decade. The point is, that you have to have a plan and stick to it. And you achieve it piece-by-piece regardless of who's in power. You don't just throw up half-assed solutions so you can get elected next term or have a legacy project.

You also have to build the stuff that makes financial sense. Building LRT now and saving the really expensive subway construction for later is a recipe for gridlock, decades from now when we'll need more grade-separation but won't be able to afford it. Why not build the subways now and save the LRTs for later?

 

[kEiThZ]

Should the worst case scenario come to pass and the SELRT was cancelled (the only part of Transit City that's really moving forward at the moment) what would the impact be anyway? For the bulk of riders who arrive from west of Agincourt that means an extra 5 mins on a bus. There is no change in the number of transfers. And the most a rider on the SELRT would save (right from Meadowvale) would be about 10 mins (the bus is actually pretty fast in Malvern today with roughly the same stop spacing as proposed for the LRT). It's hardly a project that's going to have a huge impact on travel patterns in Scarborough. It's just a tad more comfortable ride for those who live along the Sheppard corridor.

 

[waterloowarrior]

will Sheppard use a stop-request system (ring a bell?), or stop at each station for a couple of seconds and open/close doors.

 

[kettal]

Should the worst case scenario come to pass and the SELRT was cancelled (the only part of Transit City that's really moving forward at the moment) what would the impact be anyway? For the bulk of riders who arrive from west of Agincourt that means an extra 5 mins on a bus. There is no change in the number of transfers. And the most a rider on the SELRT would save (right from Meadowvale) would be about 10 mins (the bus is actually pretty fast in Malvern today with roughly the same stop spacing as proposed for the LRT). It's hardly a project that's going to have a huge impact on travel patterns in Scarborough. It's just a tad more comfortable ride for those who live along the Sheppard corridor.

You don't think Finch, and Eglinton are on the chopping block?

As much as I'd love to believe you that Hudak will come up with a transit-building campaign, I won't be betting on it...

 

[kEiThZ]

You don't think Finch, and Eglinton are on the chopping block?

As much as I'd love to believe you that Hudak will come up with a transit-building campaign, I won't be betting on it...

I didn't say Hudak would come up with a transit-building campaign. I said that the 905 won't elect a government that threatens transit because it would not be in their interest to do so. Though, Hudak would have to do something about transit to get elected. We'd have to see what that was. He has in the past suggested he supports the DRL. And I can't see not supporting the GO portion of MO2020. Beyond that there's a lot that can be done to fund transit, if Metrolinx is empowered to actually implement a proper financial strategy.

As for chopping Finch and Eglinton being on the chopping block, I'd say that all of Transit City probably is. That's what happens when times are bad. However, that's no excuse not to have a good plan so that you can build when times are good. Transit lines shouldn't be built out of desperation in one go. They should be built from a solid plan in phases. Ideally, we'd be doing what Jane Pitfield suggested (one stop per year expansion).

 

[kEiThZ]

will Sheppard use a stop-request system (ring a bell?), or stop at each station for a couple of seconds and open/close doors.

It'll use stop-request for most I think. However, when your stops are 440m apart and you are travelling in a vehicle that can carry over 300 pax, there's a high probability that someone will want to get on or off at every stop.