Lack of meaningful Passenger Rail service outside the Quebec-Windsor Corridor

[micheal_can]

https://shop.flixbus.com/search?departureCity=55eed1fb-1bcc-4acb-8d41-d2dcbbba3213&arrivalCity=41d79c93-0374-47f3-8f3a-bd154f55153a&route=Sudbury%2C+ON-Toronto%2C+ON&rideDate=15.05.2024&backRideDate=18.05.2024&adult=1&_locale=en_US&backRide=1&features%5Bfeature.enable_distribusion%5D=1&features%5Bfeature.train_cities_only%5D=0&features%5Bfeature.auto_update_disabled%5D=0&features%5Bfeature.webc_search_station_suggestions_enabled%5D=0&features%5Bfeature.webc_search_limited_product_list%5D=0&features%5Bfeature.darken_page%5D=1&atb_pdid=86d8a63d-c2bf-4dfc-84ac-e382deecd6aa&_sp=d781548d-3e38-4478-bc54-f340b54ab266&_spnuid=b70ddeab-5789-4d30-9abd-c7d989767e86_1712372653868

When I look for arguments for daily intercity rail, private bus companies adding a route is a good start. Between Sudbury and Toronto, there are 3 buses a day run by Ontario Northland. Now, a private bus carrier Flix is adding 1 a day. Now this route has 4, which is the the same as Highway 11 between North Bay and Toronto. That shows there is growing demand.

 

[micheal_can]

If we use the Siemens Fleet as an example, it took about 4 years from promised money in the budget to arrival of the first train sets. If this budget has that same thing for the LDF, we could expect new rolling stock to arrive somewhere around 2028. To resupply ~500 units, it may take around years considering how long it is taking for the Siemens ones to arrive.

 

[kEiThZ]

Between Sudbury and Toronto, there are 3 buses a day run by Ontario Northland. Now, a private bus carrier Flix is adding 1 a day. Now this route has 4, which is the the same as Highway 11 between North Bay and Toronto.

Four buses a day is around 200 pax per day. That's one train per day. And if those four buses per day were cut to one train, you'd definitely get less than 200 pax in total. But good to see you're finally underspending the importance of frequency.

Also those four buses are split between two different destinations (Pearson and Union) and two different origins (Northland terminal and Four Corners). So that means 50 pax between each pair. 200 between the two cities is hiding a lot of detail which makes rail service demand even less true.

 

[micheal_can]

Four buses a day is around 200 pax per day. That's one train per day. And if those four buses per day were cut to one train, you'd definitely get less than 200 pax in total. But good to see you're finally underspending the importance of frequency.

I have always known what frequency was. Problem is, any passenger rail growth is not a frequency thing, it is a political thing,

Also those four buses are split between two different destinations (Pearson and Union) and two different origins (Northland terminal and Four Corners). So that means 50 pax between each pair. 200 between the two cities is hiding a lot of detail which makes rail service demand even less true.

If only those 2destinations were connected by a train....
U... P.....X?

If only those stating places were on existing tracks. You forgot 2 more places... the university and downtown. One of those 4has a train track to it. One of those 4 might even have a train station near it. And guess what, the one with the train station is close to the city's transit terminal that serves all of those other places.

The Northlnader is returning in part due to the 4 buses between North Bay and Toronto. Getting a daily train between Sudbury and Toronto is getting more realistic. Routing it through North Bay might make more sense to save on running costs.

 

[kEiThZ]

I have always known what frequency was. Problem is, any passenger rail growth is not a frequency thing, it is a political thing,

It is a frequency thing. Trains can't offer higher frequencies economically. And a once daily train will not be anywhere as useful as multiple buses to multiple destinations. And that's why there's no political support for this.

If only those 2destinations were connected by a train....
U... P.....X?

Other than a railfan who has time to waste and is willing to put up with inconvenience (especially when travelling to the airport) would want this. Normal people aren't likely to prefer two trains and lugging around their bags between platforms, over a single bus.

 

[lenaitch]

If only those 2destinations were connected by a train....
U... P.....X?

If only those stating places were on existing tracks. You forgot 2 more places... the university and downtown. One of those 4has a train track to it. One of those 4 might even have a train station near it. And guess what, the one with the train station is close to the city's transit terminal that serves all of those other places.

The Northlnader is returning in part due to the 4 buses between North Bay and Toronto. Getting a daily train between Sudbury and Toronto is getting more realistic. Routing it through North Bay might make more sense to save on running costs.

If I was looking to get to PIA from a northern city, I would first look at a regional flight.

In addition to lack of frequency, what a bus gives is service to many of the little communities along the way.

What are you on about with "the university". Which one? You don't honestly suggest that people commute to a Toronto university from the north by train.

 

[micheal_can]

It is a frequency thing. Trains can't offer higher frequencies economically. And a once daily train will not be anywhere as useful as multiple buses to multiple destinations. And that's why there's no political support for this.

I fully understand it all. I also know that it is not a simple thing to make the arguments for anything. However, if the return of the Northlander was predicated on 4 buses, then an argument can now be maid that 4 buses are happening along a similar route and could see enough political wins to do it.

Other than a railfan who has time to waste and is willing to put up with inconvenience (especially when travelling to the airport) would want this. Normal people aren't likely to prefer two trains and lugging around their bags between platforms, over a single bus.

If that were the case, the UPX would be an abysmal failure. Use the same logic for it in the GTA and that argument falls apart.

If I was looking to get to PIA from a northern city, I would first look at a regional flight.

2 things.
PIA is not Pearson. It is Pakistan International Airlines. I think everyone here knows what YYZ is.

While there are flights between the 2 cities, as YYZ grows with number of flights, regional flights may get bumped for international and long haul flights.

In addition to lack of frequency, what a bus gives is service to many of the little communities along the way.

Check out the stop the buses make. Most if not all are Via stops as well. The actual place they stop may be different,like the Parry Sound stops.

What are you on about with "the university". Which one? You don't honestly suggest that people commute to a Toronto university from the north by train.

No. If you looked at the ONR Bus route list, you would see the only university in the city of Sudbury was on it.

 

[kEiThZ]

If that were the case, the UPX would be an abysmal failure. Use the same logic for it in the GTA and that argument falls apart.

No it wouldn't. There's no alternative to the trains in Toronto to get to Pearson, for most of the city.

You can't actually be this dense.

 

[micheal_can]

No it wouldn't. There's no alternative to the trains in Toronto to get to Pearson, for most of the city.

You can't actually be this dense.

You mean That the TTC Routes: 900, 52A, 300A, 332, Do not exist?

Toronto Pearson International Airport

www.ttc.ca

Fact is, locally there is no one way to get there.

Fun fact, talking about Sudbury to fly to Pearson, there is no bus service to the Sudbury Airport. So, no car, it is a taxi ride.

 

[kEiThZ]

You mean That the TTC Routes: 900, 52A, 300A, 332, Do not exist?

Are you aware of how big the 416 is? You think 4 bus routes covers it? Also, which of those routes you looked up go to the downtown core or the entire Eastern half of the city? So yes, there's no alternative but to go to Union and take UPX for a lot of the city and even the GTA. Where there are direct buses people use them. If you actually lived in the GTA, you'd know how popular GO bus routes that bypass the downtown core are, for cross-regional travel.

Fun fact, talking about Sudbury to fly to Pearson, there is no bus service to the Sudbury Airport. So, no car, it is a taxi ride.

Not sure what the relevance is to a comparison between the current bus service from two origin termini in Sudbury to two destination termini in Toronto, and a single train to the GTA. You are proposing a solution that creates transfers for at least half the riders and reduces frequency of service for three quarters of riders. All because you think people will give you all that to ride a choo-choo. Projection is not a basis for public policy.

 

[micheal_can]

Are you aware of how big the 416 is? You think 4 bus routes covers it? Also, which of those routes you looked up go to the downtown core or the entire Eastern half of the city? So yes, there's no alternative but to go to Union and take UPX for a lot of the city and even the GTA. Where there are direct buses people use them. If you actually lived in the GTA, you'd know how popular GO bus routes that bypass the downtown core are, for cross-regional travel.

Point was there is more than just the UPX to get to it for the people within the city. If we include GO and other agencies, there are plenty of options to get there.

Not sure what the relevance is to a comparison between the current bus service from two origin termini in Sudbury to two destination termini in Toronto, and a single train to the GTA. You are proposing a solution that creates transfers for at least half the riders and reduces frequency of service for three quarters of riders. All because you think people will give you all that to ride a choo-choo. Projection is not a basis for public policy.

The relevance is when someone says "just fly to Toronto". Understanding what transportation options exist, and don't exist for a given locale helps to understand what is missing and how something more should exist. There should be local transit to the airport.

 

[kEiThZ]

Point was there is more than just the UPX to get to it for the people within the city.

Your original point was that people in Toronto take two trains, so folks from Sudbury would do the same. This point ignored the reality that people in Toronto take multiple trains because their transit network is designed that way. Where they have options with fewer transfers (like GO buses) that's what they take.

The relevance is when someone says "just fly to Toronto". Understanding what transportation options exist, and don't exist for a given locale helps to understand what is missing and how something more should exist. There should be local transit to the airport.

You're now moving on to another topic. Your usual gish gallop troll tactic. I never said "just fly to Toronto". I said there's no case for a single rail trip to replace multiple buses.

As for last-mile access, that's a local problem. Not something the rest of us (especially a forum named URBAN TORONTO) should be concerned with. You should ask transit authorities in Sudbury to fix the problem. You don't solve local last-mile problems by running train service to cities several hundred kilometers away.

 

[micheal_can]

Your original point was that people in Toronto take two trains, so folks from Sudbury would do the same. This point ignored the reality that people in Toronto take multiple trains because their transit network is designed that way. Where they have options with fewer transfers (like GO buses) that's what they take.

No, what I was doing there was flipping it around. Ever heard the saying "what is good for the goose is good for the gander"?

The original thing I was pointing out is that in the information session with ONR regarding the return of the Northlander, in not so many words, they had said that the reason that it is coming back is because there is enough bus service to warrant it.So, I take that as 4 buses each way a day as being the threshold. With this private operator Sudbury now has 4, so maybe it is enough. Time will tell. I doubt anything will be announced unless it is close to the election if the PCs are worried about support and want to try to get more seats from here..

You're now moving on to another topic. Your usual gish gallop troll tactic. I never said "just fly to Toronto". I said there's no case for a single rail trip to replace multiple buses.

As for last-mile access, that's a local problem. Not something the rest of us (especially a forum named URBAN TORONTO) should be concerned with. You should ask transit authorities in Sudbury to fix the problem. You don't solve local last-mile problems by running train service to cities several hundred kilometers away.

You are right that it is a local problem. I only bring it up to show that getting to the airport here without a car is not as simple as one might expect. In fact, most people taking vacations and flying drive to Toronto due to the challenges to get to our airport and the shear cost per flight. One way is around $500. For that price it is cheaper to drive and pay the park and fly. So, having a train, even if it costs $100/person, that would still be a deal.

Remember the reasons people use a train outside of the Corridor is different than inside the Corridor.

Google Travel

www.google.ca

 

[T3G]

If that were the case, the UPX would be an abysmal failure. Use the same logic for it in the GTA and that argument falls apart.

In the GTA, people who use the UPX use it because it's convenient for them. Those for whom it is not convenient will not use the service. A long train journey into Toronto, and then backtracking, would not be convenient for anyone besides railfans.

You can already see this in real time right within the city. Do you think that someone who lives near Etobicoke North will take the GO train into the city and then double back on the UPX, or do you think they'll drive the 9 minutes there instead? Now why do you think they would do this if they were coming down from Sudbury?

 

[micheal_can]

In the GTA, people who use the UPX use it because it's convenient for them. Those for whom it is not convenient will not use the service. A long train journey into Toronto, and then backtracking, would not be convenient for anyone besides railfans.

You can already see this in real time right within the city. Do you think that someone who lives near Etobicoke North will take the GO train into the city and then double back on the UPX, or do you think they'll drive the 9 minutes there instead? Now why do you think they would do this if they were coming down from Sudbury?

What about someone from London or Kingston? Both have airports. Would they spend the money on the short flight or would they take the trains?