Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[Rainforest]

Those lines are NOT profitable to TTC. TTC accounting staff has never actually said they are. You'll notice when TTC calculated cost per streetcar/bus route (both cap+op) the subway lines were always missing from those reports.

They do (probably) run an operational profit but only if you subsidize the feeder bus service; walkins don't do it. I wouldn't call a grocery store profitable if it required government subsidies from their upstream suppliers.

Also, a huge chunk of TTCs SOGR capital renewal program would, for most transit organizations, be considered operations; things like escalator and tunnel wall maintenance. Once you add capital into the mix, TTC subway lines almost certainly require an widely varying annual subsidy even with the feeder buses taking the brunt of the operations subsidy load.

Both Canada and Ontario run a profit from the TTC (indirect income via income-taxes, business taxes, etc.). I'm less certain that Toronto (municipality) runs an overall profit from TTC operations; but it's citizens probably do.

Ok, thanks for the info.

I read somewhere that the two long subway lines (YUS and BD) actually bring in more in revenues than they consume in operational costs. Certainly, the allocation of revenue is somewhat arbitrary when the riders pay for the whole trip (bus + subway or streetcar + subway). Also, you have a good point about the capital.

 

[Rainforest]

Maybe the Sheppard line is the most profitable line the TTC has?

No

It may require less maintenance per km than other lines because it is newer, and has less stations per km. But the revenue side sucks.

 

[Rainforest]

This is so unbelievably demonstrably false I am actually laughing.

The short section of the DRL, from Queen station on the Yonge line to Pape on the Bloor line, is pegged at $6 billion dollars.

Subway construction is exponentially more expensive per km than any other method, whether expanding existing rail corridors above ground or LRT.

First, go and enable service every 5 min or every 3 min on those lines, then laugh all you want. Until that, I will laugh at your petty efforts.

There is no question that surface construction is several times cheaper than tunneling; that is, when you have a surface corridor to utilize.

Once you exhausted you corridor width, you have to either tunnel or expropriate; the former is very expensive, the latter is politically challenging and not cheap, either.

If you think DRL is expensive, get the estimate for the tunneled downtown mainline rail corridor needed to enable the said frequency.

 

[Rainforest]

Anything about a GO midtown line?

Go Midtown line was a popular topic 8-10 years ago, but now it is almost forgoten. I guess, there are higher priorities.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

This is so unbelievably demonstrably false I am actually laughing.

The short section of the DRL, from Queen station on the Yonge line to Pape on the Bloor line, is pegged at $6 billion dollars.

Subway construction is exponentially more expensive per km than any other method, whether expanding existing rail corridors above ground or LRT.

It's not at all that simple. The best way to measure this would probably be capital cost per daily passenger.

We're doing about $15 Billion in GO rail upgrades for a system that'll move 540,000 per day. The $7.4 Billion relief line long and the $2 billion Yonge north extension will very likely move more than 1,000,000 people per day, based on their high peak point ridership, which are both about the same as Line 2. In these cases, the subway would be cheaper to build on a per passenger basis, by an enormous margin

And mind that $15 Billion is only the cost of RER upgrades. If RER is a complexity new system, it would cost even more.

 

[44 North]

Those lines are NOT profitable to TTC. TTC accounting staff has never actually said they are. You'll notice when TTC calculated cost per streetcar/bus route (both cap+op) the subway lines were always missing from those reports.

They do (probably) run an operational profit but only if you subsidize the feeder bus service; walkins don't do it. I wouldn't call a grocery store profitable if it required government subsidies from their upstream suppliers.

Also, a huge chunk of TTCs SOGR capital renewal program would, for most transit organizations, be considered operations; things like escalator and tunnel wall maintenance. Once you add capital into the mix, TTC subway lines almost certainly require an widely varying annual subsidy even with the feeder buses taking the brunt of the operations subsidy load.

Both Canada and Ontario run a profit from the TTC (indirect income via income-taxes, business taxes, etc.). I'm less certain that Toronto (municipality) runs an overall profit from TTC operations; but it's citizens probably do.

I'd be interested in knowing the 'profitability' numbers of the Line 1 and 2 as well. Straight up ops, for sure they're money makers. But factoring capital maintenance... it might be another story altogether. I can't recall the cost numbers for tunnel liner replacement for the northern sections of Yonge, but afaik it's a pretty penny. And I'm not even sure if that replacement is complete yet. It was/is a long, costly process. Then the capital costs of conforming to rules about second entrances and those with mobility issues (e.g adding elevators). Leaves one to wonder if whether factoring in these things the subway system actually is a 'money maker'.

It's not at all that simple. The best way to measure this would probably be capital cost per daily passenger.

We're doing about $15 Billion in GO rail upgrades for a system that'll move 540,000 per day. The $7.4 Billion relief line long and the $2 billion Yonge north extension will very likely move more than 1,000,000 people per day, based on their high peak point ridership, which are both about the same as Line 2. In these cases, the subway would be cheaper to build on a per passenger basis, by an enormous margin

And mind that $15 Billion is only the cost of RER upgrades. If RER is a complexity new system, it would cost even more.

$2bn for YNSE? That can't be right. IIRC last estimate was a whopping $4.6bn (2016 CAD). This was a TTC estimate, and appears to conflict with recent estimates I've seen in news articles. But nowhere have I seen anything as low as $2bn. Granted the extension includes an underground yard - one recently amended to be conveniently optimized for future extension, and bringing the project damn near close to 16th Ave. Either way, it's a costly endeavour. Per passenger it might be "cheaper" than GO projects. But per passenger revenue per km, I don't think it'd come anywhere close to even the costliest GO project.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

2bn for YNSE? That can't be right. IIRC last estimate was a whopping $4.6bn (2016 CAD). This was a TTC estimate, and appears to conflict with recent estimates I've seen in news articles.

Yeah I don't think that's right. But even if we use $4.6 Bn as the cost of YNSE, the total cost of YNSE and relief line long is $12 Billion. This is for subway infrastructure that'll move twice as many people the the entire RER network combined.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

But per passenger revenue per km, I don't think it'd come anywhere close to even the costliest GO project.

RER will always have higher passenger revenue per KM since RER is so much more expensive to operate, requiring higher fares.

 

[robmausser]

Yeah I don't think that's right. But even if we use $4.6 Bn as the cost of YNSE, the total cost of YNSE and relief line long is $12 Billion. This is for subway infrastructure that'll move twice as many people the the entire RER network combined.

The cost of Relief line short is $6 billion. Where are you getting this figure for Relief Line long?

 

[Juan_Lennon416]

What does this have to do with the Scarborough RT replacement?

 

[TheTigerMaster]

What does this have to do with the Scarborough RT replacement?

Idk. Any ideas of what I should eat for lunch today?

 

[WislaHD]

Even if the YNSE cost as cheap as $2 billion, you are going to have to add $1.5 billion for the cost of renovating Bloor-Yonge Station.

Conversely, you could deduct that cost from the Relief Line Long.

 

[44 North]

RER will always have higher passenger revenue per KM since RER is so much more expensive to operate, requiring higher fares.

Possibly. I guess it's hard to know operation costs of RER at this point since it's yet to be implemented. And there seem to be different ways of going about how costs can be presented, whether they're presented line-by-line, or if they're presented at all.

One thing that could reduce RER's op costs compared with underground subways is manned vs unmanned stations. It's probably a drop in the buck in the grand scheme of things, but it's my understanding that with an underground station it's mandated by law that at least one personnel has to be onsite during operating hours. With an open-air platform like GO/RER that's obviously not needed. And if we consider day-to-day maintenance into 'operating' costs, RER would probably come out ahead as well. Simple outdoor platforms and open tracks (the majority of which are paralleled by an easily-accessible service road), vs multi-level subterranean caverns and tunnels (much of which can only be accessed with special equipment, and only during a small window in the early morning).

Idk. Any ideas of what I should eat for lunch today?

How about chicken salad, on rye, untoasted, with a side of potato salad...and a cup of tea?

Even if the YNSE cost as cheap as $2 billion, you are going to have to add $1.5 billion for the cost of renovating Bloor-Yonge Station.

Conversely, you could deduct that cost from the Relief Line Long.

Maybe this B-Y renovation is what's considered in the $4.6bn cost the TTC quoted, and why that estimate doesn't seem to match the estimates I've seen in the media. It's hard to tell. With projects of this magnitude, and some degree of politicization, we're always seeing cost discrepancies and withheld info. Like how in the Sheppard debate the numbers Chong/Ford presented seemed to contradict or lowball other estimates given by the City.

 

[TOareaFan]

now that there is going to be another by-election in Scarborough....a journo has written the first thing that had popped into my mind when I heard the news:

 

[Juan_Lennon416]

MPP Bas Balkissoon (Scarborough-Rouge River) resigned and a by-election will be called within 6 months.

Just say 'no'...Raymond Cho!