|
|
|
44th Canadian Federal Election
- Thread starter Richard White
- Start date
Videodrome
Senior Member
My incumbent MP has bunch of signs up already. I also saw a ton of Coteau signs when I was out today.
I had the PC candidate at my door. No masks on her or her entourage.
lenaitch
Senior Member
I was out for a ride on Sunday, around noon or perhaps a little later, and saw Liberal signs. I don't know what time the writ dropped but they must have been twitching at the side of the road waiting for the call.
Northern Light
Superstar
Election polling is off to a curious start; 2 weeks ago, by and large, the Libs had a healthy lead over a seemingly flailing Conservative Party.
Today most polls are put the Libs/Cons within the margin of error of each other, or essentially tied.
This shows up as the Cons have added 1 or 2 points, the NDP have adding 4-5 points and that being shaved off the Liberal total.
All of the above are taken from: https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
Among those putting out seat count models:
Lean Toss Up: 170 Lib (1 seat majority); Cons 107, NDP 30, BQ 29, Green 2
338 Canada : 156 Lib (minority), Cons 116, NDP 36, BQ 27, Greens 2
Calculated Politics: Libs 172 (2-seat majority), Cons 117, NDP 27, BQ 20, Greens 2
Today most polls are put the Libs/Cons within the margin of error of each other, or essentially tied.
This shows up as the Cons have added 1 or 2 points, the NDP have adding 4-5 points and that being shaved off the Liberal total.
All of the above are taken from: https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
Among those putting out seat count models:
Lean Toss Up: 170 Lib (1 seat majority); Cons 107, NDP 30, BQ 29, Green 2
338 Canada : 156 Lib (minority), Cons 116, NDP 36, BQ 27, Greens 2
Calculated Politics: Libs 172 (2-seat majority), Cons 117, NDP 27, BQ 20, Greens 2
afransen
Senior Member
If it closes this much, I wonder if you see NDP support bleeding back to avoid a surprise conservative win.
Richard White
Senior Member
I was noticing on one of the Conservative ads that they intend to bring back 1 million jobs as part of their platform.
Where have I heard that before....
Where have I heard that before....
Videodrome
Senior Member
Did he also promise to fire people like Tim Hudak?
Bjays92
Senior Member
The conservatives actually have quite a few more liberal policies this time around, matching the ndp on a bunch of pandemic related economic stuff. People are fed up with trudeau, regardless of how tight the polls are theres no way the cons can win a majority and hardly have a shot at a minority. I don't see the close polling numbers pushing NDP supporters to the liberals. The liberals are going to continue to shed votes if they cant come out with a platform and Trudeau has nothing to offer.
Jonny5
Senior Member
This is a tough one as we have huge variance on the BQ in those polls. In one they are at 5% nationally and one they are at 8% nationally. There is a block of 20-30 seats where that swing pro-rated down to a provincial level means 20-30 seats go in play or not, depending on where those votes go. Does anyone have Quebec specific polling yet?
Richard White
Senior Member
This election is becoming so unpredictable. At the start I would have assumed the liberals were taking a majority.
Now I'm wondering if Justin will resign if they lose..
Now I'm wondering if Justin will resign if they lose..
Bjays92
Senior Member
I imagine this is Singh's last election with a child on the way. The NDP are picking up steam but in desperate lead of a more charismatic leader. The child is the perfect reason for him to step back and have someone else take the reigns.
christiesplits
Senior Member
The Greens are waaay behind in nominating candidates. For instance, they have pockets of support in Parkdale-High Park and Toronto-Danforth, but still haven't nominated anyone.
afransen
Senior Member
Typically a PM resigns when they lose office. Only way he wouldn't is if CPC gets a small minority just a bit larger than LPC outcome, and LPC could potentially govern with NDP. CPC may get first kick at the can to form government.
Richard White
Senior Member
I don't even think Annamie Paul is leaving Toronto to campaign because of a lack of funds.