2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Yes. Invading Taiwan would be much more challenging than Russia invading Ukraine. There is a good chance Taiwan could rebuff an initial invasion. China could try a blockade of Taiwan, but China is just as vulnerable to its oil supply being interdicted in the Indian ocean. I think the only way China could take over Taiwan at an acceptable cost is through diplomatic and economic pressure, which has been the strategy they have been pursuing thus far.

Not necessarily wrong - but you have to ask, acceptable cost to whom?

AoD

 

[Admiral Beez]

That's an impressive rate of fire for a 40mm.

Indeed. Check it out. Imagine how hot that barrel gets.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The US might not be perfect, but I'll take their "imperfect" 100 times out of 100 over the alternative - a world dominated by China (or in the past, Russia/Soviet Union). That would be a true nightmare.

China plays the long game.

 

[kEiThZ]

Hungary is really leaning into that trojan horse role:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1676178780786769920

 

[DSCToronto]

I am just waiting for Hungary to need EU (or other) help and can imagine their surprise when people say "No".

 

[kEiThZ]

Ukrainians have been warning about Russians preparing to blow up the ZNPP.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1676285340573638663

 

[Northern Light]

Coverage on the above from Politico:

Ukraine warns of nuclear disaster as Russia orders staff to leave power plant

International Atomic Energy Agency found no visible mines at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station but still needs better access.

www.politico.eu

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Ukrainians have been warning about Russians preparing to blow up the ZNPP.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1676285340573638663

Maybe this is the sort of thing that will warrant international intervention in the conflict. Or maybe their calculus is counting on that outcome?

AoD

 

[Towered]

Ukrainians have been warning about Russians preparing to blow up the ZNPP.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1676285340573638663

How does such a disastrous potential scenario benefit Russia?

 

[kEiThZ]

Maybe this is the sort of thing that will warrant international intervention in the conflict. Or maybe their calculus is counting on that outcome?

AoD

I think Putin is emboldened by the West doing nothing after the dam was blown.

 

[kEiThZ]

How does such a disastrous potential scenario benefit Russia?

It doesn't. But they are getting more vindictive as they lose.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

I think Putin is emboldened by the West doing nothing after the dam was blown.

Though it is arguable that blowing the dam is below the threshold in comparison to blowing ZNPP - deliberately or engineering the conditions for it to happen. That sounds like something for NATO spec ops.

AoD

 

[kEiThZ]

Though it is arguable that blowing the dam is below the threshold in comparison to blowing ZNPP - deliberately or engineering the conditions for it to happen. That sounds like something for NATO spec ops.

AoD

Spec Ops that deep inside Ukraine, at such a large facility, that is wired to blow, would be insanely risky, and not very likely to succeed. Our guys train to take a reactor or two. Not 6 reactors in a facility that is a square kilometre big. At that point, you'd need an entire special forces brigade. And you're still not guaranteed that some drunk Ivan would pull the trigger on some of the explosives.

I agree with you that the dam was below the threshold. Whether it should have been is debatable, given the environmental and economic damage caused. I feel like Putin bizarrely has escalation dominance over the West, bizarrely, because we aren't brave enough to actually step up and threaten him with real consequences. And I'm genuinely worried that ceding this kind of control, will embolden a whole lot of other bad actors.

A good video on escalation dynamics. Though I kinda disagree that Putin is as weak as Perun thinks, when we're the ones acting weak all the time:

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Spec Ops that deep inside Ukraine, at such a large facility, that is wired to blow, would be insanely risky, and not very likely to succeed. Our guys train to take a reactor or two. Not 6 reactors in a facility that is a square kilometre big. At that point, you'd need an entire special forces brigade. And you're still not guaranteed that some drunk Ivan would pull the trigger on some of the explosives.

I agree with you that the dam was below the threshold. Whether it should have been is debatable, given the environmental and economic damage caused. I feel like Putin bizarrely has escalation dominance over the West, bizarrely, because we aren't brave enough to actually step up and threaten him with real consequences. And I'm genuinely worried that ceding this kind of control, will embolden a whole lot of other bad actors.

A good video on escalation dynamics. Though I kinda disagree that Putin is as weak as Perun thinks, when we're the ones acting weak all the time:

My default assumption is that they will blow it - I am thinking of setting up the conditions to minimize the damage afterwards (entombing it, whatever) by intervening ASAP afterwards. Blowing up a dam is whatever; blowing up a nuclear reactor is something that will saturate the media and build the support for direct intervention.

AoD

 

[Admiral Beez]

A good summary of Ukraine’s unity and strength.