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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

AlvinofDiaspar said:
Not sure how believable this is:

www.telegraph.co.uk

Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance

Details offer clue as to why Wagner Group abandoned coup attempt that revealed ‘real cracks’ in Putin’s authority
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk

On one hand, it's not exactly hard to imagine that Putin will do this; on the other, it is hard to imagine Prigozhin didn't anticipate it.

AoD
Click to expand...

There's a running theory that Prighozin thought of this as a way that threaten and extract concessions. Didn't anticipate how the whole thing would turn out and be seen.
 
kEiThZ said:
This is a really good read:

www.foreignaffairs.com

There’s No Such Thing as a Great Power

How a dated concept distorts geopolitics.
www.foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com
Click to expand...
Russia gambled and lost. They have now made it clear to the rest of the world that they are no longer a great power, and that their bluffs can be called. Regardless of how this war turns out, Russia's days are numbered and Europe has been galvanized against it.

On Taiwan, I'm not sure I understand why China would feel so strongly about retaking it. As long as the US continues the figleaf of strategic ambiguity, it seems like it should be in the interests of both parties to continue the status quo. Invading Taiwan is certainly costly, may go wrong in as regime-threatening way and will critically damage China's international stature.
 
afransen said:
On Taiwan, I'm not sure I understand why China would feel so strongly about retaking it.
Click to expand...
It’s the same as Argentina wanting the Falklands. They believe they have a legitimate, history-based claim and their totalitarian government sees retaking it as an effective means to distract their civilian population from their otherwise sh#tty lives. It didn’t go well for Argentina’s dictators, and it won’t go well for PRC’s.
 
afransen said:
Russia gambled and lost. They have now made it clear to the rest of the world that they are no longer a great power, and that their bluffs can be called. Regardless of how this war turns out, Russia's days are numbered and Europe has been galvanized against it.

On Taiwan, I'm not sure I understand why China would feel so strongly about retaking it. As long as the US continues the figleaf of strategic ambiguity, it seems like it should be in the interests of both parties to continue the status quo. Invading Taiwan is certainly costly, may go wrong in as regime-threatening way and will critically damage China's international stature.
Click to expand...

Statecraft is not always a rational exercise; territorial unity is a central theme given the role shame plays in the national psyche. A strongman using it as way to buttress his rule makes it even less amenable to cold rationality. Make no mistake though - China isn't Russia.

AoD
 
AlvinofDiaspar said:
Statecraft is not always a rational exercise; territorial unity is a central theme given the role shame plays in the national psyche. A strongman using it as way to buttress his rule makes it even less amenable to cold rationality. Make no mistake though - China isn't Russia.

AoD
Click to expand...
Yes. Invading Taiwan would be much more challenging than Russia invading Ukraine. There is a good chance Taiwan could rebuff an initial invasion. China could try a blockade of Taiwan, but China is just as vulnerable to its oil supply being interdicted in the Indian ocean. I think the only way China could take over Taiwan at an acceptable cost is through diplomatic and economic pressure, which has been the strategy they have been pursuing thus far.
 
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