2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

[Towered]

I wouldn't in their shoes. I would continue the attrition strategy. It's delivering dividends. The Russian rate of artillery is dropping. There is grown dissension amongst their leadership. They are getting worn down. Once the Russians are close to breaking then the AFU will strike.

Should be explained that the need for cluster munitions was so that they could preserve their conventional artillery stocks for the main effort.

They got put into this situation by not being given adequate air power, air defences and long range fires. Pretty hypocritical of the West to expect Ukraine to fight and accept losses that we never would.

Absolutely agree. They are the ones dying, not us (the West). They get to decide which approach works best for them to minimize casualties while maximizing offense. It's been slow but methodical, and it's working gradually. The Ukrainians are hammering Russian supply lines and depots far behind enemy lines, and are retaking territory every single day. I think the rest of us were just spoiled by their lightning quick advances last fall, which set up similar expectations for this offensive.

 

[kEiThZ]

When it finally ends and the world knows the true extent of the crimes, they will become even more of a pariah state - the outlook for countries like that will be grim. So much for restoration of Empire.

AoD

I hope you're right. I fear you are wrong.

Unfortunately, principles don't drive geopolitics. If they did, the Chinese economy would be a lot smaller.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

I hope you're right. I fear you are wrong.

Unfortunately, principles don't drive geopolitics. If they did, the Chinese economy would be a lot smaller.

Being a political/economic vassal of China is for sure on their original menu - because it ain't going to be an actual, durable partnership on the basis of shared values, culture and ideals. In the meantime, their demographic indicators are not going anywhere but down. In a way, it's a "good" thing the war happened - it shook us in the west from our collective slumber a bit - no peace in our time, the end of history s**t anymore. Back to a quasi bi-polar world.

AoD

 

[DSCToronto]

This is very odd!

Putin says he tried but failed to oust Prigozhin after Wagner mutiny

President tells newspaper he met mercenary chief to negotiate terms for fighters’ continued participation in Ukraine war

www.theguardian.com

 

[kEiThZ]

Ukrainian claims but comparing like for like certainly shows that the counteroffensive is certainly moving faster than the conventional narrative.....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679880449496154113

Also, lines up with complaints from Russians themselves:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679809685891817472

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Ukrainian claims but comparing like for like certainly shows that the counteroffensive is certainly moving faster than the conventional narrative.....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679880449496154113

Also, lines up with complaints from Russians themselves:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679809685891817472

You almost have to feel sorry for their losses just from a humanitarian perspective. But war is war - there can be an accounting of the inhumanity of it afterwards.

AoD

 

[lenaitch]

Ah, the Great Purge - didn't he learn anything from the 30s?

AoD

If a critical mass of General/Flag officers feel they're next, they could take the initiative.

 

[kEiThZ]

Highly recommend reading this thread:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680494813349642240

 

[afransen]

Highly recommend reading this thread:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680494813349642240

Fascinating, but isn't he well off the message track sharing these details?

 

[kEiThZ]

Fascinating, but isn't he well off the message track sharing these details?

In what way? None of this is news to the Russians. Presumably they know their losses. It does substantially contradict the narrative that the counteroffensive is a failure and hasn't achieved much. This is clearly setting up for some real gains later in the Summer and in the Fall.

 

[kEiThZ]

Crimean Bridge traffic stopped due to ‘emergency:’ Russian-backed governor

Traffic was stopped at the Russian-built Crimean Bridge linking the Crimean peninsula to the Russian region of Krasnodar due to “an emergency” situation,

english.alarabiya.net

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680757080276234241

 

[Northern Light]

Crimean Bridge traffic stopped due to ‘emergency:’ Russian-backed governor

Traffic was stopped at the Russian-built Crimean Bridge linking the Crimean peninsula to the Russian region of Krasnodar due to “an emergency” situation,

english.alarabiya.net

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680757080276234241

There's video out now:

Ukraine Strike Damages Key Bridge Linking Crimea to Russia

The Kerch Bridge, which connects Russia to the occupied Crimean Peninsula, was disabled in a Ukrainian strike. Russia said Kyiv used two naval drones to attack the bridge which is an important route for supplying Russian troops fighting in Ukraine. Photo: Reuters

www.wsj.com

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

There's video out now:

Ukraine Strike Damages Key Bridge Linking Crimea to Russia

The Kerch Bridge, which connects Russia to the occupied Crimean Peninsula, was disabled in a Ukrainian strike. Russia said Kyiv used two naval drones to attack the bridge which is an important route for supplying Russian troops fighting in Ukraine. Photo: Reuters

www.wsj.com

Too bad they didn't hit the main span - that would have been considerably more difficult to repair. Maybe they should try a barrage next time.

AoD

 

[kEiThZ]

Too bad they didn't hit the main span - that would have been considerably more difficult to repair. Maybe they should try a barrage next time.

AoD

1) It was probably a USV. Not a missile.

2) Bridges are very difficult targets for missiles. They have a small profile (thin line) to hit.

3) The more missiles or USVs you use, the higher the likelihood of your attack being detected by defences and engaged. It's a regular balancing act between stealth and mass.

 

[kEiThZ]

This is rare insight. Worth the read.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681240456754077697