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2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

TJ O'Pootertoot said:
Many pointed out on social media how this reflects the pretty-well-known Hulchasnki "3 cities" map of Toronto.
Chow needed to appeal to the suburbs and she barely got out of her own neighbourhood; couldn't even take the Beach?
Overall, what it really shows is that there remain start, systemic divides in the city and no candidate bridged any gaps; everyone is dug in like ticks. I don't know that Tory or Chow, or any individual can bridge those gaps but I hope they really try.
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At least it doesn't match the 2010 map which was downtown vs. everyone else, since Tory did pull in much of North York, south Etobicoke and a sliver of Scarborough.
 
BurlOak said:
The green in that map almost mirrors the TTC subway system.
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Politics often mirrors the age of the neighbourhoods, and the pre-WW2, pre-highway areas were served by streetcar lines which later became subway lines.

Good comparison maps:

to-mayor-wards.jpg
 

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TheTigerMaster said:
I don't think that was a coincidence.
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It would be interesting to see per-poll results. Specifically, how did new condos constructed in those turned-green sections vote? 4 new buildings (2000 voters) would have been enough to convert many wards.
 
TheTigerMaster said:
I don't think that was a coincidence.
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It's not a coincidence but one needs to make the leap from "subways" to "connected" and, by extension "rich," relatively speaking. Again, this is all the Hulchanski stuff which I won't bore people with but it's not about people who feel they have the transit they deserve, as Rob Ford might think. It's about people who are in financially stable areas/situations and people who are not (if I can put things very simplistically).

rbt said:
It would be interesting to see per-poll results. Specifically, how did new condos constructed in those turned-green sections vote? 4 new buildings (2000 voters) would have been enough to convert many wards.
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Zack Taylor, at U of T, said he'll have poll results analyzed by the end of the week. His website is here:
http://bigcitypolitics.ca/
 
TheTigerMaster said:
The makeup of this Council will be very important for our city for the next four years.

1. Most of the Councillors got elected with a very strong mandate. I expect the councillors to be very firm and potentially divisive in their positions. Tory will have a hard to building a consensus in Council
2. Tory has a weak mandate; of approximate 43% as of 9:06 pm. He won't be able to use a strong mandate as a tool to lead council.
3. Tory has historically been a very weak leader.

With all these points considered I don't expect Tory to effectively lead this Council.

Considering that nearly everyone on Council was reelected, I expect that this Council, and therefor our city will lean centre-left for the next four years
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Not buying the weak mandate at all. Tory's 43% in a three person race is stronger than Rob's 47% considering that Chow was a much stronger candidate than Pantalone, and that Tory had to deal with what was essentially an incumbent in Doug Ford.

Regardless, no one will care about Tory's margin of victory soon enough. It will come down to him being able to find enough support to consistently win votes. He might lose a few, but I can't see him ever going on a Rob Ford-type losing streak.

As for your third point, he has never led a government, so we have no idea what kind of leader he has been historically.

ehlow said:
Thank you central North York!! For saving us from Ford more years!!!
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You're welcome!
 
And you can already deduce poll-result patterns from the actual ward-by-ward mayoral results--like, in Toronto Centre, there's definitely a Ford "uptick" in Ward 28 (the St James Town/Regent Park ward) compared to Ward 27, that kind of thing...
 
GenerationW said:
Not buying the weak mandate at all. Tory's 43% in a three person race is stronger than Rob's 47% considering that Chow was a much stronger candidate than Pantalone, and that Tory had to deal with what was essentially an incumbent in Doug Ford.

Regardless, no one will care about Tory's margin of victory soon enough. It will come down to him being able to find enough support to consistently win votes. He might lose a few, but I can't see him ever going on a Rob Ford-type losing streak.

As for your third point, he has never led a government, so we have no idea what kind of leader he has been historically.

You're welcome!
Click to expand...

You're right that mandates don't mean much once they're in (for the mayor or councillors) but it's still rather sad you can have a mayor with only 40% of the vote...and that Rob Ford had 47%. But it's a 3-way race and we don't have ranked ballots so, c'est la vie.

And don't get TOO high and mighty Central North York - some of y'all re-elected David Shiner :)
 
TheTigerMaster said:
Unfortunately I'm not surprise. But I'm not sure if that's more of a black issue, an immigrant issue or just a location issue.
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It's an education issue with a bit of location thrown in (herd mentality).

The less educated you are, the more likely you are to support people like the Fords. If you need proof, just look at the winners they showed at the Ford party headquarters.
 
Some of the talk here... And people wonder why many residents in this city feel alienated and will vote for Fords.

I saw one comment on an article that suggested that Ford polling high in Scarborough was not a surprise since that's where they "stuck all the retard immigrants". Person was a Chow supporter.

I'm not surprised. I've always maintained that at least some element of the disdain for the 'burbs has a racial component.

Hopefully, Tory can work on making the suburbs feel more included.
 
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