Roads: GTA West Corridor—Highway 413

[nfitz]

Norway is still only at 15% electric cars and were decades behind them. The added cars are a climate change issue, as well as the damage to the greenbelt and the crappy built forms.

Canada was at 5% of new cars being electric a year ago. This is where Norway was at 5% in 2013.

We are only 8 years behind them.

 

[Ward8]

The bulk of our electric vehicle sales are driven by BC with most provinces still well under 1%. I hope we get there on the same trajectory as Norway, but it feels like wishful thinking. Still not going to help with traffic as an electric car takes up the same amount of space as a gas one. It also doesn't address the environmental impacts of actually building the highway.

 

[Deadpool X]

Does it not strike you as a little wrong that the pressing need for building a new highway is being driven by the existence of an overpriced toll?
That to solve what is essentially a paperwork/contract issue, we need to spend billions of dollars, pave over 52 km of agricultural/green lands, lay thousands of cubic yards of concrete and/or asphalt, emit thousands of metric tons of C02, etc?
That's crazy.

Are you saying that reworking the 407's contract is cheaper than $6-10 billion that will be spent on 413? A few years ago 407 was valued at $32 billion. Doesn't spending $32 billion on purchasing that highway strike you a little wrong? And you have assumed that 407's owners are willing to sell the highway at all. It's a lot more than some paperwork issue.

 

[Deadpool X]

It could all be a coincidence in terms of interests simply aligning rather than being caused by one another. I drive, but I never expect to need to drive from Muskoka to Guelph in one trip, so I am not charitably inclined towards the 413. I do go from Toronto to Muskoka fairly often, so the equally problematic but shorter Bradford Bypass through the Holland Marsh is much easier for me to be charitable towards, even if we are entering the century of fire hurricanes

413 is supposed to decongest 401 and 400 by rerouting some traffic away. So it will still make your drive faster. Just like how Ontario line is supposed to decongest Yonge line.

If you are going to talk induced demand, then that would be wrong in this case. This is almost an exurban area. People will drive, highway or no highway. I don't expect people to take a train from Milton to Barrie via Union especially when GO is slower because of indirect route, more expensive, doesn't offer door to door connectivity, and has very limited bus connections in outer suburbs.

 

[TRONto]

This is classic chicken or the egg. If we keep building sprawl and highways thats the built form we'll get. It's hard to predict what the next 30-50 years will look like, but it is a choose your own adventure story. We have agency over the way our cities are built and we are not passive onlookers of sprawl. I don't accept the premise that it is inevitable. Highways are important, but if 20 lanes of 401 don't improve traffic, 4 more lanes of the 413 aren't going to help either.

Amidst the current housing crisis there is a real possibility that single family zoning is eliminated in Toronto. Every municipality in the GTA could change dramatically in the coming years. Ryerson did a study on Mississauga and showed that its population could double without tearing down a single house or acre of farm.

Norway is still only at 15% electric cars and were decades behind them. The added cars are a climate change issue, as well as the damage to the greenbelt and the crappy built forms.

As far as driving is concerned, the issue is not housing but better walkability (do you need to drive). Today there is discussion of eliminating SF zoning and densifying those neighborhoods but there is no discussion of allowing retail and services in our neighborhoods. We need walking to be able to replace car trips, that helps remove the need for driving and as a knock on effect, lowers the need for a highway.

As an example, doubling the population of Mississauga without a change in walkability creates 4x the congestion (made up the #, but we know population effects are exponential on congestion). Mississauga needs to also allow pharmacies, grocery shops, bakeries, barbers, etc into the neighborhoods so people can walk to amenities.

If we didn't build the 413, what would likely happen in it's place? We'd probably build roads and housing in the same footprint so I doubt the environmental footprint would be much different.

 

[innsertnamehere]

the focus in the suburbs should absolutely be on reducing short, local trips. Things like creating safe paths to schools and short distances to local retail and amenities are key to cutting congestion and automotive trips. New suburbs are a bit better with this, providing dense school networks resulting from the higher residential densities and new "main street" areas in many subdivisions providing increased access to local amenities such as barbers, dentists, convenience stores, etc. There is obviously still more to be done, but it's not like how neighbourhoods were designed in the 80's.

It's unrealistic to expect these areas to have low automotive commuting trips though I think. Obviously encourage as much as you can, but you are never going to see 50%+ transit modal shares for commuting and long distance trips out there.

 

[DirectionNorth]

Are you saying that reworking the 407's contract is cheaper than $6-10 billion that will be spent on 413? A few years ago 407 was valued at $32 billion. Doesn't spending $32 billion on purchasing that highway strike you a little wrong? And you have assumed that 407's owners are willing to sell the highway at all. It's a lot more than some paperwork issue.

The 407 is worth that much because it makes that much money. Pre-COVID profit was $500 million, which multiplied over the next 80 years of the lease, is more than $30 billion.

413 is supposed to decongest 401 and 400 by rerouting some traffic away. So it will still make your drive faster. Just like how Ontario line is supposed to decongest Yonge line.

The 401 is 12 lanes. It's still congested. The benefits throughout the GTA are 30 seconds on average, of which I assume will not translate to more than 5 minutes for 401 drivers.

If you are going to talk induced demand, then that would be wrong in this case. This is almost an exurban area. People will drive, highway or no highway. I don't expect people to take a train from Milton to Barrie via Union especially when GO is slower because of indirect route, more expensive, doesn't offer door to door connectivity, and has very limited bus connections in outer suburbs.

the focus in the suburbs should absolutely be on reducing short, local trips. Things like creating safe paths to schools and short distances to local retail and amenities are key to cutting congestion and automotive trips. New suburbs are a bit better with this, providing dense school networks resulting from the higher residential densities and new "main street" areas in many subdivisions providing increased access to local amenities such as barbers, dentists, convenience stores, etc. There is obviously still more to be done, but it's not like how neighbourhoods were designed in the 80's.

It's unrealistic to expect these areas to have low automotive commuting trips though I think. Obviously encourage as much as you can, but you are never going to see 50%+ transit modal shares for commuting and long distance trips out there.

The goal should be to reduce/not reduce the number of people who live in areas that will have this type of commuting problem. It's bad for the environment and it's bad for the residents - nobody wants to sit in a car or train for 3 hours every day.

 

[Ward8]

Are you saying that reworking the 407's contract is cheaper than $6-10 billion that will be spent on 413? A few years ago 407 was valued at $32 billion. Doesn't spending $32 billion on purchasing that highway strike you a little wrong? And you have assumed that 407's owners are willing to sell the highway at all. It's a lot more than some paperwork issue.

I wasn't suggesting that they buy it. But for the sake of argument, the government could nullify the contract and take it for free if they wanted. There are plenty of reasons not to do that, but the option exists. Alternatively they could negotiate an arrangement for trucks to use it as a bypass, or they could pass a law regulating tolls. Other options include tolling all 400 series highways or using parts of the 401 as truck only or even a truck bypass. As another poster said earlier, the fact that they are spending billions of dollars on the 413 because the tolls on the 407 are too high tells you everything you need to know.

Opinion | Doug Ford should cancel Highway 407 contract

Forget about the Beer Store contract, the public interest would be best served by taking back the “revenue-generating monster” GTA highway.

www.thestar.com

As an example, doubling the population of Mississauga without a change in walkability creates 4x the congestion (made up the #, but we know population effects are exponential on congestion). Mississauga needs to also allow pharmacies, grocery shops, bakeries, barbers, etc into the neighborhoods so people can walk to amenities.

If we didn't build the 413, what would likely happen in it's place? We'd probably build roads and housing in the same footprint so I doubt the environmental footprint would be much different.

You're 100% right here. Walkability and other forms of transit would need to improve as well. I would just add that density is an important factor in making everything more walkable. I would argue that the 413 isn't necessary now and we could re-evaluate its merits once we've picked some of the lower hanging fruit. Giving people the option of living near school and work should come before facilitating even more lengthy commuting trips.

 

[Ward8]

Are you saying that reworking the 407's contract is cheaper than $6-10 billion that will be spent on 413? A few years ago 407 was valued at $32 billion. Doesn't spending $32 billion on purchasing that highway strike you a little wrong? And you have assumed that 407's owners are willing to sell the highway at all. It's a lot more than some paperwork issue.

Sorry, this looked funky on my phone and I thought it was a response to one of my comments. Apologies for mixing that up.

 

[TOareaFan]

I wasn't suggesting that they buy it. But for the sake of argument, the government could nullify the contract and take it for free if they wanted. There are plenty of reasons not to do that, but the option exists. Alternatively they could negotiate an arrangement for trucks to use it as a bypass, or they could pass a law regulating tolls. Other options include tolling all 400 series highways or using parts of the 401 as truck only or even a truck bypass. As another poster said earlier, the fact that they are spending billions of dollars on the 413 because the tolls on the 407 are too high tells you everything you need to know.

Opinion | Doug Ford should cancel Highway 407 contract

Forget about the Beer Store contract, the public interest would be best served by taking back the “revenue-generating monster” GTA highway.

www.thestar.com

You're 100% right here. Walkability and other forms of transit would need to improve as well. I would just add that density is an important factor in making everything more walkable. I would argue that the 413 isn't necessary now and we could re-evaluate its merits once we've picked some of the lower hanging fruit. Giving people the option of living near school and work should come before facilitating even more lengthy commuting trips.

there is so much wrong with that 2019 piece in the star that it is quite shocking that it made it to print.

Here is a list of a few that i can bring to mind just from memory without searching/googling

• What the government sold for $3B in the 1990s is not worth $30B (is that the number she used?) today.....considerable billions were invested by the leasehold owners to get it to its current state (both lengthening the road and widening in the busiest sections) so any court in the land would uphold a claim the would make based on recovery of that good faith investment;
• The NDP were going to cancel tolls when "it was paid for"? I wish youtube was around at that time because I remember a press conference when the moniker "Express Toll Route" was unveiled and a journo asked (paraphrase) the Min ister of T "how can you guarantee it will be express...won't there be traffic jams like every other road" and he (I thought) quite cleverly explained that the plan of the then owner (the government) was to increase tolls whenever traffic was getting too heavy to ensure that the revenue objectives were being met but with less cars;
• Foreign owned company? about 60% of the ownership is us (through CPP) and SNC Lavalin...this is a majority Canadian owned company.
• The whole cancel the contract idea seems to be "we will tell people that they should ditch their transponders, we won't refuse them new license stickers and they can just ignore the monthly bill they get from the road"....not actually cancelling the lease and preventing them from operating the road...isn't that just inviting a situation where average Ontarians are spending a lot of time fighting the owners in court and and facing legal bills...but don't worry, you can get your sticker
• The road is only for "BMWs, Mercedes and Cadillacs."....complete poppycock....this Toyota driver uses the road for certain journeys and I can tell you i have seen no discernable difference in the auto demographic....there may be less cars...but the mix of them is much the same.

 

[Deadpool X]

I wasn't suggesting that they buy it. But for the sake of argument, the government could nullify the contract and take it for free if they wanted. There are plenty of reasons not to do that, but the option exists.

This is not a banana republic where a government can snatch away a multi billion dollar private investment as if it was snatching a candy from a child. If government ever decides to do that, courts would quash govt's attempts right away. If Parliament decides to make new laws allowing govt to grab private property, no one will ever invest in Canada, including Canadians themselves.

So, no. Those options don't exist. If govt manages to get something out of the 407 consortium, it would be more like a favour.

413 is probably the best opportunity to get 407 consortium lower their tolls. Toll free 413 will definitely take away some traffic from 407 and govt can negotiate to reduce tolls for not building 413. We would get a cheaper 407 and save the greenbelt too.

 

[Deadpool X]

The 407 is worth that much because it makes that much money. Pre-COVID profit was $500 million, which multiplied over the next 80 years of the lease, is more than $30 billion.

My point still stands. If govt wants to buy this highway, $32 billion would be the starting price because a company would consider their infrastructure's future income before they sell it. This is just like share price of a company. It's way more than the annual profits because it considers future income.

PS - They sold 10% stake for $3.2 billion, that's how I arrived at $32 billion valuation.

The 401 is 12 lanes. It's still congested. The benefits throughout the GTA are 30 seconds on average, of which I assume will not translate to more than 5 minutes for 401 drivers.

This is an argument made to distract people. Why would you consider average time savings for the entire GTA? It is not meant to serve entire GTA! Ontario line is not saving time for people in York, Peel, Halton or Durham or even places within city of Toronto such as Etobicoke, western half of North York,, etc. Should we not build it then?

401 is more congested because it is the most central corridor in the city. No other highway cuts through GTA like 401. 427 is not as congested as 401. Neither is 403 or 404 or 410. This highway is even more on the periphery than any other highway and it won't be as congested as 401. I am NOT saying it won't be congested. I am saying it won't be as congested as 401 and it will be free flowing for many more hours of the day than 401.

 

[toaster29]

I think the argument would be that people are less likely to buy houses when they aren't in a place accessible to jobs. I think the 413 will be a traffic disaster, so in many ways it doesn't make sense to me, but the internal logic makes sense.


There is no correlation between the need for highways and an increase in population. There are cities a lot more populous than Toronto that get by on a lot less highway. The $$ for the 413 should be spent on transit projects and the 407 tolls should be sorted out to allow time for the transit to be built. Sprawl and greenfield development should simply be banned, or close to it. This isn't really that complicated and has been done elsewhere all over the world.

In North America? Do you have a source for this or examples? I thought I read on this forum precisely the opposite, that Toronto (GTA) has some of the lowest kms of toll-free highway per capita in North America.

 

[dullturtle06]

This is not a banana republic where a government can snatch away a multi billion dollar private investment as if it was snatching a candy from a child. If government ever decides to do that, courts would quash govt's attempts right away. If Parliament decides to make new laws allowing govt to grab private property, no one will ever invest in Canada, including Canadians themselves.

So, no. Those options don't exist. If govt manages to get something out of the 407 consortium, it would be more like a favour.

413 is probably the best opportunity to get 407 consortium lower their tolls. Toll free 413 will definitely take away some traffic from 407 and govt can negotiate to reduce tolls for not building 413. We would get a cheaper 407 and save the greenbelt too.

Hey what if the government did a trade. 407 hands over the highway to government control. But in return they get the 401 express lanes they can toll. With the closed nature of the express lanes all they would have to do is put up the ETR cameras.

I think that would be a pretty good deal for both parties.

 

[Deadpool X]

Hey what if the government did a trade. 407 hands over the highway to government control. But in return they get the 401 express lanes they can toll. With the closed nature of the express lanes all they would have to do is put up the ETR cameras.

I think that would be a pretty good deal for both parties.

I had suggested something like this earlier. 401's route is also more lucrative than 407's because it's a shorter cross town route and connects to more highways. But there are two issues:

1. Express lanes on 401 are less wide than 407, which means lower capacity
2. Drivers exiting from express lanes will have to cross the slow/standstill traffic in the collector lanes and may need to drive 4-5 kms in collector lanes. A lot of their time savings will evaporate in that process.

I would rather have a very reasonable toll (10 to 15 cents per km) on every single highway in GTA and pay the proceeds to 407's consortium to reduce the tolls on 407 to match with rest of the network. Why should some people pay heavy toll while some others get to use the highways for free? For example in Durham there are 3 toll highways now. They pay as much taxes as others in GTA.

A reasonable toll won't hurt business and people badly but may change driving habits of some people.