News   Sep 18, 2024
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PM Justin Trudeau's Canada

Y'all were saying? I reckon I was on to something.

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If Trudeau is Prime Minister or not the Liberals face another byelection before the end of the year:


More baleful byelections are brewing for the Trudeau Liberals after the fall of St. Paul's​

These looming battlegrounds, most currently held by the Liberals, could either signal a turnaround for the party, or add to their growing sense of demise

Cloverdale—Langley City​



Previously: Liberal



Expected byelection: Before Jan. 4, 2025




The most daunting challenge for the Liberals could be holding onto the riding of Cloverdale—Langley City, in British Columbia’s Lower Mainland.



The riding has been hard fought between the Liberals and Conservatives for the last three elections, with only narrow margins of victory for either party. MP John Aldag announced he would be stepping down and formally resigned at the end of May. He is seeking to run for the British Columbia NDP in the provincial election expected this fall.



Trudeau will have to announce the date of the byelection before the end of November.



In 2021, Aldag and the Liberals won the riding by about three points, roughly the same margin that decided the race in 2019 when Conservative Tamara Jansen won, and has announced she will run again. It has become a much fiercer battleground over the years than it was in 2015, when Aldag won the riding by nearly 10 percentage points.
 
If the NDP do what they said and would vote on an issue-by-issue basis, then I think the government can survive for some time. The Liberals just need either the NDP or the Bloc to vote with them. If the NDP say they won't vote for something, then the Liberals can either not bring that item to a vote, or make concessions to the Bloc instead. I don't think either the Bloc or NDP want an election right now, so I would think they'd find some way to find common ground on various issues.
 
If the NDP do what they said and would vote on an issue-by-issue basis, then I think the government can survive for some time. The Liberals just need either the NDP or the Bloc to vote with them. If the NDP say they won't vote for something, then the Liberals can either not bring that item to a vote, or make concessions to the Bloc instead. I don't think either the Bloc or NDP want an election right now, so I would think they'd find some way to find common ground on various issues.
Singh wants pharmacare to pass the Senate AND protect his pension. So, no election until Feb 2025.
 
Singh wants pharmacare to pass the Senate AND protect his pension. So, no election until Feb 2025.

As I said before, the NDP Care less about Jagmeet than they do their own survival. If Jagmeet looks like he is putting his own interests ahead of the nation, their support will tank.
 

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