Ontario Liberals and Transit

[TheTigerMaster]

It should be unchanged from the situation of two months ago! It's the same budget. Literally ... check the date on that PDF file - April 30, 2014.

Ahh yes.

But the budget tabled today is identical to the one introduced on May 1st (the one in the PDF).

So yes, situation remains unchanged. We're even using the same PDF two and a half months later

 

[nfitz]

So yes, situation remains unchanged. We're even using the same PDF two and a half months later

So basically, all we've had is a 2.5 month delay, courtesy of the useless anti-transit NDP.

The same NDP who at their first opportunity last week introduced legislation to delay the 2015 opening of the Union-Pearson Express.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

The Yonge North Subway extension could be postponed, still. The funds shifted to a Yonge Relief Line. Depends on what is in their definition of "Expansion", since it is not "Extension".

I'm going to agree that an extension to York Region has been postponed indefinitely. Between the Relief Line and GO electrification and expansion there's not going to be much money left over. Maybe $1 Billion can be squeezed out for an extension to Steeles. The rest will have to be made up of funding from the Region or the federal government.

Of course this is assuming that the Liberals keep their promise to build Relief Line and GO electrification and expansion

 

[innsertnamehere]

Kitchener Waterloo GO would come out of the outside of GTA fund.

On a per KM basis, roughly 1/3rd of the GO budget would come outside of GTA funds (Presuming the Niagara line east of Hamilton, Barrie north of East Guilimbury, and Kitchener west of Mount Pleasant come out of the "Outside GTA" fund).

This means given the $12 Billion total cost for the entire network, on a per KM basis it should come out to roughly $8 Billion for GO. (lets go with $9 billion for safety's sake)

That leaves $6 billion for additional projects, And I would like to presume a 30% municipal contribution, meaning:

$2 billion - DRL
$1 billion - Hurontario LRT
$1 billion - Yonge Extension to Steeles (Feds and York can kick in the extra if they want for the full line)
$800 million - Hamilton LRT
$400 million - Queen BRT
$100 million - Queens Quay East LRT
$200 million - Dundas BRT to Hurontario
$250 million - Durham BRT

Total: $5.65 billion, $350 million in "wiggle room" for cost differences.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Kitchener Waterloo GO would come out of the outside of GTA fund.

On a per KM basis, roughly 1/3rd of the GO budget would come outside of GTA funds (Presuming the Niagara line east of Hamilton, Barrie north of East Guilimbury, and Niagara west of Mount Pleasant come out of the "Outside GTA" fund).

Hadn't considered that. Also remember that according to ML/GO, there is potential for that $12 Billion to be drastically reduced as they work on a more accurate price prediction. Potentially as low as $10 Billion.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Electrification will not cost 12 billion honestly, maybe 6 to 8 at the most.

 

[nfitz]

Electrification will not cost 12 billion honestly, maybe 6 to 8 at the most.

Did you include the cost of a new Candu?

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Did you include the cost of a new Candu?

They're really buying one just for this? All day service will cost 5 billion so where does there other 7 factor into this?

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Did you include the cost of a new Candu?

Candu? As in the nuclear reactor?

 

[nfitz]

Candu? As in the nuclear reactor?

Think of all that electricity that hundreds of electric trains will need.

Fortunately AECL has a proposal in place to put portable Candus on each train, so not only will the trains be pollution-free with no stinky diesels. But there won't be any of that eye-sore wiring everywhere. Win-win! You can see how this extra $billions will be worth it!

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Think of all that electricity that hundreds of electric trains will need.

Yeah but the TTC also runs hundreds of electric trains and streetcars and as far as I know the TTC doesn't have a separate power plant.

Fortunately AECL has a proposal in place to put portable Candus on each train, so not only will the trains be pollution-free with no stinky diesels. But there won't be any of that eye-sore wiring everywhere. Win-win! You can see how this extra $billions will be worth it!

Okay so you're joking

 

[nfitz]

Okay so you're joking

Actually I was initially providing commentary on the pointlessness of trying to argue about 30% of the costs at this grossly preliminary stage by making an absurd comment about the assumptions.

 

[GenerationW]

$2 billion - DRL

Is that even enough for Pape to downtown?

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Is that even enough for Pape to downtown?

Not nearly.

 

[BurlOak]

Think of all that electricity that hundreds of electric trains will need.

Fortunately AECL has a proposal in place to put portable Candus on each train, so not only will the trains be pollution-free with no stinky diesels. But there won't be any of that eye-sore wiring everywhere. Win-win! You can see how this extra $billions will be worth it!

I think a better strategy is to drive jobs out of Ontario and that would free up the existing power plants to provide electricity to transit.