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November 2020 US Election

Please get in the habit of citations. Its a post, not an academic treatise; but you come up w/these statements out of the blue that are often rather outlandish, and you don't post any evidence at all, not even a news article link in support.

I did a quick search on this subject:


The above article indicates California will see net growth until 2060

A quick survey of other publications, did not generate one that showed flat population growth as early as 2029. If there is one, please provide the link.

The growth in California population has slowed down a lot in recent years and people Think with covid it will slow down more that we may see a decline.

Maybe it grows a bit but it is slowing down clearly.
 

The growth in California population has slowed down in recent years and people
Think with covid it will accelerate.

Maybe it grows a bit but it is slowing down

No question its slowing; but thus far, natural growth, plus international migration has left California with a smaller net gain, as opposed to decline.

I do think California's projections may be at risk (that is to say of decline); because I see no evidence that a shortage of water and/or its substantially increased costs have been factored into planning.

I expect that may be a pertinent issue to urban, Southern California in particular as soon as the next decade (its already relevant in certain agricultural and rural areas

That said, California is likely some distance from a significant weakening of its relative position with the United States.

Fresh water shortage, increased ocean levels/flooding and heat-related issues will likely have livability impacts elsewhere in the U.S.

Texas, and Florida key among them.

So for now...........and the medium-term future, don't look for Cali to be any less dominant in the U.S. sphere.
 
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It's a Biden/Harris ticket. I'm surprised.
No surprise there, she ticks all the ‘required’ categories, and is very much part of the Obama camp. Furthermore they can utilize her to target blacks, liberal (not leftist) women, and pro-law groups, which is likely part of the strategy in suburbs and swing states.

IMO she was chosen long ago, but the DNC needed to go through with the precedent motions to give her appointment some degree of authenticity.

The important thing is that with Biden’s mental health that Kamala is much closer to the presidency than most would realize...
 
It's a Biden/Harris ticket. I'm surprised.

On the one hand, I tend to view the VP's position in most administrations as largely irrelevant.

It is exceedingly rare they succeed the upper half of the ticket while in office.

At best, it tends to be an advantageous spot from which to run for President for some.

Still, it can be indicative of what audience a party is seeking to reach; and sometimes, when someone bright and ambitious is picked they may use the office to push one or more policies forward (good ones, one would hope).

****

In the case of Harris, this is a surprise is as much as she was the most critical of Biden during the primaries; and also because she's not an ideological balance on the ticket (not likely to attract the Sanders/Warren set).

Her track record as a prosecutor and AG in California might also lead one to wonder how the BLM and police-reform movements will take to her.

But we shall see.
 
Interesting factoid about Harris...........she went to High School in Montreal ( I believe the full term since she moved their in 76/77 (age 12) and graduated Westmount in '81.
 
Harris has a rather flawed record as a prosecutor but in the end everyone looks like Saint against trump.
 
On the one hand, I tend to view the VP's position in most administrations as largely irrelevant.

It is exceedingly rare they succeed the upper half of the ticket while in office.

At best, it tends to be an advantageous spot from which to run for President for some.

Still, it can be indicative of what audience a party is seeking to reach; and sometimes, when someone bright and ambitious is picked they may use the office to push one or more policies forward (good ones, one would hope).
I strongly believe that they're gunning for a Liberal-Moderate "Return of Presidential Dignity" platform in targeting suburbs and purplish swing states (i.e. the Rust Belt), hedging that the Leftists will begrudgingly vote for the Democrats since they have no other choice. Her 'Kopmala' reputation may actually serve as a bonus in this case for those who want a law-and-order presidency and an "end to the chaos of Trump".

The other issue that I'm strongly speculating is that Biden will not last a term in office, and may end up stepping down for health reasons. To the Democrats, Biden is usefully really up to November, beyond that, he's likely going to be a ceremonial figurehead with the VP and State Department running the show. As such, no matter her comments during the primary, Harris was chosen to represent a continuation of Biden and that trajectory (which itself is really a continuation of Obama's legacy).

In the case of Harris, this is a surprise is as much as she was the most critical of Biden during the primaries; and also because she's not an ideological balance on the ticket (not likely to attract the Sanders/Warren set).

Her track record as a prosecutor and AG in California might also lead one to wonder how the BLM and police-reform movements will take to her.

But we shall see.
IMO the goal was to freeze out the Sanders/SocDem side, which has been nipping away at the Dem's liberal-corporatist side for a while now. They'll throw the leftists some superficial bones, but I don't expect a wholesale embracing of their platform (especially with the recent defund-the-police stuff).

For consideration:

The leftists have no other choice, and the way it is the DNC is going to frame it as "Whatcha you gonna do? Not vote? That'll be like voting for Trump." (They'll then drag Bernie out to tell them to vote for Biden)
 
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Harris has a rather flawed record as a prosecutor
She does? I thought she had a record of locking up more bad guys than most, restricting parole, etc. All the things you want a prosecutor to do.
The leftists have no other choice, and the way it is the DNC is going to frame it as "Whatcha you gonna do? Not vote? That'll be like voting for Trump." (They'll then drag Bernie out to tell them to vote for Biden)
Yep, no point whatsoever campaigning to leftists. Like most elections, this fight is for the centrists.
 
She does? I thought she had a record of locking up more bad guys than most, restricting parole, etc. All the things you want a prosecutor to do.
Yep, no point whatsoever campaigning to leftists. Like most elections, this fight is for the centrists.

For actual crimes

Not for pot smoking or parents not sending kids to school
 
U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris’s classmates from her Canadian high school cheer her potential run for president

Dated December 29, 2018.

From link.

_1_kamala_grad_pic.jpg


In the yearbook photo of the 1981 graduating class at Westmount High School near Montreal, the left hand of a beaming Kamala Harris is resting on the right shoulder of Hugh Kwok.

Kwok went on to run a Montreal car business with his father. Unbeknownst to him, Harris went on to be a U.S. senator. She’s now contemplating a bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.

When Kwok was asked in December for his thoughts on his old pal’s potential run, he answered a reporter’s question with a question.

“She’s running for president of what?” he asked in a tone that suggested he thought the answer might be the local Rotary Club.

Informed that it was the presidency of the United States, his voice rose. “No way. Oh my goodness. I can’t believe it,” he said. Then he decided he was supportive of this idea.

“We could use a good president,” he said. “She was a sweet, kind person. Very happy, very social. I’m just very excited for her, if that’s what she wants to do with her life.”

Harris has said she will decide over the holidays whether to run for president. If she does, she will be considered one of the major candidates in what is expected to be a crowded competition for the Democratic nomination. It is now possible that Westmount, the 145-year-old public school where singer-songwriter Leonard Cohen and hockey legend Art Ross also studied, will produce a U.S. president before it produces a Canadian prime minister.

Harris returned to her native U.S. for university, and she long ago lost touch with most or all of her Westmount acquaintances. But some of them have traded delighted texts and Facebook posts about her ascent. And they are generally not all that surprised.

They remember the California senator, now 54, as an assured, cheery teenager who thrived both in school and on the dance floor. They say she maintained an easy popularity across the subtle divides of a racially and economically diverse student body that drew from both wealthy and lower-income neighbourhoods.

Harris “gave off an aura suggesting she was poised for success,” said Paul Olioff, now an academic adviser at McGill University, who recalled her as a “terrific, confident presence” with an advanced fashion sense.

“Westmount High was a very racially segregated school when we attended, not in a hostile way, but more because of socio-economic divisions. Ms. Harris transcended this, as there were few students she didn’t get along with,” Olioff said in an email.

This is at least the fourth consecutive presidential election in which a major candidate has had family ties to Canada. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who lost the Republican primary to Donald Trump in 2016, was born in Calgary. Former president Barack Obama has a brother-in-law from Burlington.

As Obama and Cruz know, the “America First” Trump has a talent for portraying an opponent’s links to foreign countries as grounds for voter suspicion. Asked via email how her Westmount years influenced her, Harris expressed no particular fondness for Montreal, Quebec or Canada.

“While my sister Maya and I made great friends and even learned some French, we were happy to return home to California,” she said through a spokesperson.

She did add: “One of the women’s auxiliary groups at the hospital my mother worked at ended up inspiring me to help create an auxiliary group at the Highland Hospital in Oakland later in life.”

Harris, a former San Francisco district attorney and California attorney general, is the California-born daughter of two immigrants to the U.S., both of whom earned PhDs: India-born scientist and breast cancer researcher Shyamala Gopalan Harris and Jamaican-born economics professor Donald Harris.

They divorced when Kamala was a young child. When she was 12, she said, her mother moved to Montreal for a job researching at the Jewish General Hospital and teaching at McGill. Her mother spent 16 years in the job, according to a 2009 family obituary.

Both of Harris’s parents were involved in the U.S. civil rights movement. Sister and fellow Westmount student Maya Harris, who became a lawyer, adviser to Hillary Clinton and television commentator, told the San Francisco Chronicle that Kamala became something of an activist in Quebec at 13 — organizing a successful children’s protest against a no-playing-in-the-yard policy at their apartment building.

In the 1981 Westmount yearbook, Harris thanked her mother and listed “California” as a cherished memory. She said a favourite pastime was “dancing with super six; Midnight Magic.” Old friend Wanda Kagan told the Canadian Press last year that Midnight Magic was their amateur dance troupe, which she said performed at fundraisers and for seniors at community centres.

Eyal Dattel, a human resources director in Vancouver, said he recalls his drama classmate as “always a truly nice person” and now sees her as “an ideal candidate for a progressive future.” Dean Smith, a Montreal basketball coach, said he remembers Harris as a hard-studying and likeable student who helped classmates with schoolwork and preferred to spend time with average kids rather than with moneyed elites.

“In my opinion, she’d be a great president, because she’s fair,” he said.

John Dila, a Harris classmate who is now a Harris constituent as a businessman on the California startup scene, said the Westmount students of the day regularly discussed politics.

Harris lived in Quebec at a tense time in local affairs: the provincial government passed its French-language law in 1977, held a referendum on independence in 1980, and, in 1981, opposed the patriation of the Constitution. Dila, who praised Harris at length, said he thinks she understands policy issues better than American colleagues who have had narrower life experiences.

“Having lived in Canada — those are seminal years, and I can’t believe she wasn’t deeply shaped by the handful of years that she was there,” he said.

At least one Westmount classmate is cool to Harris’s candidacy. Gail Clarke described the teenage Harris as “pretend sweet,” lamenting that the senator decided in Grade 11 that she was too unexciting to continue hanging out with. Clarke added: “I do wish Kamala the best.”

Before Harris, Westmount’s most successful politician graduate was Stockwell Day, the Conservative former federal minister and former leader of the Canadian Alliance party.

Even Day, Class of ’67, had positive words about Harris’s bid. He said her experience at a school at once diverse and harmonious would have “given her some great insights into how a multinational population really can work and live together.”

“Her policies as Attorney General in California on things like gun control and criminal justice reform would fit in quite well in Canada,” Day said in an email. “If she runs and wins the presidency, I will definitely reach out to her to see if Westmount High alums can get tickets to her inauguration!”
 

The growth in California population has slowed down a lot in recent years and people Think with covid it will slow down more that we may see a decline.

Maybe it grows a bit but it is slowing down clearly.

On balance, what's so bad about California slowing down? Some might say that in the well-over-a-century until now, it "overgrew" on the back of increasingly strained resources. Maybe a bit of a catching-their-breath is what they need (and to be fair, even *they* realize it).

As for Kamala, it says something about present-day Millennial/post-Millennial-tinged reality that her race and gender can actually come across as "nothing, really", much more so than it did with Obama--in fact, I can see a "President Kamala" being more of a Merkel-esque solid-hand-on-the-tiller, and anything "activist" being nothing more than a long-overdue post-Trump clearing out of dead and corrupt wood. (You really think a lot of Trump's bozo or crony appointments would survive the upheaval? This really is about a return to sanity.)

And going back to the discussion of Governor Pete Wilson: even if he won on "anti-migrant policies", it was more as a reflection of where the GOP at large was going in the 90s--Wilson himself was more of a pragmatic dullard than a self-styled conservative firebrand a la Governor Reagan in the 60s/70s. That is, it wasn't he, himself who "tainted the brand", so much as the party he belonged to at a time when California was changing--a circumstance which only accelerated after the Gingrich revolution pushed the national party rightward in 1994. And unfortunately, the henceforth California GOP strategy was to double down, like what worked in the Beach Boys era could still work in the present. The result being that Orange County, once the beating heart of Reaganism, now has an all-Dem congressional delegation. Don't blame Pete Wilson; blame his party, who in targeting the short term, could not foresee the long term.
 
She does? I thought she had a record of locking up more bad guys than most, restricting parole, etc. All the things you want a prosecutor to do.
Yep, no point whatsoever campaigning to leftists. Like most elections, this fight is for the centrists.

The issue, as it was for Hillary is turn-out.

Left, young, green; the difference-makers.

A lot of swing voters still voted Hillary; but a lot of the younger, Obama and post-Obama Democrats sat on their hands. They didn't switch to Trump, they just stayed home (not voting at all)

Now, having had to deal with Trump, maybe they'll feel different this time.

Then again; with a strong likelihood of a Democratic House again; and maybe a Democratic Senate...........they won't.

Very tough to say.

Further complicated by the election-process issues (mail-in ballots and voter suppression measures)
 

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