Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (nCoV-2019)

[lenaitch]

Expert epidemiologists have suggested that it simply isn't possible to sustain quarantine-like conditions for months on end.

They expect that this will involve a clamp-down, then relaxation, then a second wave, then a second clampdown and so on..........

For between 10 months- 14 months until we either reach 70% heard immunity or we have a vaccine at scale.

That seems credible to me.

I'm entirely open to different ideas.

I've made the citations in previous posts to support the above.

To be clear, I'm in favour of doing what we can to minimize deaths; and am personally prepared to make sacrifices to that end.

But when we're looking at government policy, we have to consider what the majority can sustain.

That should not be mistaken for accepting the misguided BS from Trump, in the least.

I tend to agree. As soon as the numbers start to stabilize or drop slightly, governments will be under incredible pressure to let people and the economy get moving again, which may well send the numbers spiking again. Once the weather really starts to warm up, people will want to get out and seasonal tourist related businesses will want to get going, especially if the kids are still at home.

There have been reports of persons contracting the disease after testing negative, which is either a reflection of the disease or the testing method.

 

[Northern Light]

Italian coronavirus cases likely "10 times higher than reported"

Reuters
March 24, 2020, 6:35 am

ROME (Reuters) - The number of cases of coronavirus in Italy is probably 10 times higher than the official tally of almost 64,000, the head of the agency that is collating the data said on Tuesday.

Latest figures show 6,077 people have died from the infection in barely a month, making Italy the worst-affected country in the world, with close to double the number of fatalities in China, where the virus emerged last year.

However, testing for the disease has often been limited to people seeking hospital care, meaning that thousands of cases have certainly gone undetected.

"A ratio of one certified case out of every 10 is credible," Angelo Borrelli, the head of the Civil Protection Agency, told La Repubblica newspaper, indicating he believed as many as 640,000 people could have been infected in the country.

He said the biggest difficulty facing Italy was a shortage of masks and ventilators - a problem that has dogged the health system since the contagion first surfaced in the wealthy northern region of Lombardy on Feb. 21.

Italy is trying to import stocks from abroad, but Borrelli said nations like India, Romania, Russia and Turkey had halted such sales. "We are contacting the embassies, but I fear no more masks will be arriving from abroad," he said.

Italian coronavirus deaths jump, dashing hopes that worst was over

Fatalities in Italy from coronavirus have surged in the last 24 hours, the Civil Protection Agency said on Tuesday, dashing hopes the epidemic in the world's worst hit country was easing after more encouraging numbers in the previous two days. Italy has seen more fatalities than any other...

news.yahoo.com

We really need to move away from case counting.

Epidemiological modelling suggests the vast majority of us will get this infection, at least passively, within 10-14 months.

The effort we are undertaking is not to stop infection, it is to delay it, and spread it out, so hospitals are not overwhelmed by those who end up with 'severe' cases.

So, expect case loads, over the coming months to run into the millions (and beyond) in every highly populated country.

What what we need to take interest in is not total case load, per se.

Its rate of case load growth, with a particular eye on the hospitalization rate, hospital capacity (in particular ICU capacity), and the associated mortality rate.

As of now, if you simply multiply known cases by 10 in any country, what you do is appear to make it far less serious, because you lower the percentage of those infected who are hospitalized or who have died.

In reality, of course, you've changed nothing.

The same number of people are in in hospital the number of dead has not changed either.

Caseload growth rate is the only relevant stat; because if that's high, then the odds of a system becoming overwhelmed (or continuing to be) is greater.

Because we know, in every country that there are many people infected who have not been tested, total cases aren't really a great marker just yet, unless they are mostly restricted to the severely symptomatic.

The latter, being indicative of the potential strain on healthcare/hospitals, and the ensuing mortality concern.

The hospitalization rate for those tested positive (with total numbers) is the best near-term marker.

 

[Northern Light]

From Twitter, crime-related side effects to Covid.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1242382595310194693

 

[jje1000]

We really need to move away from case counting.

Epidemiological modelling suggests the vast majority of us will get this infection, at least passively, within 10-14 months.

The effort we are undertaking is not to stop infection, it is to delay it, and spread it out, so hospitals are not overwhelmed by those who end up with 'severe' cases.

So, expect case loads, over the coming months to run into the millions (and beyond) in every highly populated country.

What what we need to take interest in is not total case load, per se.

Its rate of case load growth, with a particular eye on the hospitalization rate, hospital capacity (in particular ICU capacity), and the associated mortality rate.

As of now, if you simply multiply known cases by 10 in any country, what you do is appear to make it far less serious, because you lower the percentage of those infected who are hospitalized or who have died.

In reality, of course, you've changed nothing.

The same number of people are in in hospital the number of dead has not changed either.

Caseload growth rate is the only relevant stat; because if that's high, then the odds of a system becoming overwhelmed (or continuing to be) is greater.

Because we know, in every country that there are many people infected who have not been tested, total cases aren't really a great marker just yet, unless they are mostly restricted to the severely symptomatic.

The latter, being indicative of the potential strain on healthcare/hospitals, and the ensuing mortality concern.

The hospitalization rate for those tested positive (with total numbers) is the best near-term marker.

One other issue that’s been raised is that countries are counting deaths differently, throwing the lethality of the disease out of wack, and making setting quarantine periods difficult- the WHO needs to show some leadership and request that all countries standardize their counting methods.

 

[Northern Light]

And electricity rates are set to declined, as we all apparently get the off-peak rate 24/7 for the next 45 days or so.

Ontario to slash hydro rates to offset costs of working from home amid coronavirus pandemic

Province will charge customers lower rates for at least 45 days to offset higher electricity costs

www.theglobeandmail.com

 

[Northern Light]

Nice to see that grocery stores aren't the only ones topping up front-line staff (note, the latter should be permanent raises even higher than the top-ups, but I digress)

TD Banks is handing out bonuses to front-line branch staff and call centre staff working through the current situation, by a total $1,000 each, in 2 $500 installments, plus giving 2 extra paid vacation days.

TD Bank to pay bonuses to branch workers who deal with the public

Both full-time and part-time staff are eligible if they work in roles that put them at greater risk of exposure to the coronavirus

www.theglobeandmail.com

 

[Admiral Beez]

There have been reports of persons contracting the disease after testing negative.

Why does that seem so far fetched? If I test you today, at 8:41 am and you're clear of the virus..... you can easily contract it at 8:42 am onwards.

More worrisome would be reports of persons contracted the disease before testing negative. That would suggest a failed testing method, whereas your post suggests bad luck or hygiene after an accurate test.

 

[Rimsky44]

More worrisome would be reports of persons contracted the disease before testing negative.

I think Lenaitch is referring to people who were infected, supposedly got better (tested negative), but later tested positive again. They don't know a lot of things right now, can you be reinfected twice? Do you develop immunity afterwards (if so, how long)? Are you still infectious if you have trace levels still (but are not sick yourself)? Was it just a missed negative test when they let the person leave? Etc. etc.

Japanese coronavirus patient tests positive a SECOND time

The man, in his 70s, was initially infected on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Two weeks after being discharged from hospital he tested positive for the virus again, local media reports.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[PinkLucy]

When listening to Dr. Fauci, who has worked with this kind of thing for years, he said there are always anomalies, like that Japanese patient. One patient does not equal definitive data.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Are you still infectious if you have trace levels still (but are not sick yourself)?

In South Korea many of their testing is done by blood instead of nasal probe. AIUI, the blood test shows if you've ever been exposed to Covid19, not if you're currently contagious. I imagine in two years from now, well over half of the global population will have antibodies to Covi19 in their system.

 

[Admiral Beez]

When listening to Dr. Fauci, who has worked with this kind of thing for years, he said there are always anomalies, like that Japanese patient. One patient does not equal definitive data.

It's only a matter of time before Fauci is pushed aside or dismissed by Trump. We'll see the showdown when the 15 day period is up and Trump demands to cancel all the closures and the Dr. demands they stay put. Then we'll see American blue hairs expiring by the thousands.

 

[PinkLucy]

It's only a matter of time before Fauci is pushed aside or dismissed by Trump. We'll see the showdown when the 15 day period is up and Trump demands to cancel all the closures and the Dr. demands they stay put. Then we'll see American blue hairs expiring by the thousands.

Fauci is America's last voice of reason. If Trump stops listening and lifts the restrictions, it's going to get very ugly, very quickly. Listening to the doctors and medical personnel pleading is heart-breaking.

 

[picard102]

Fortunately the State level has a lot of autonomy.
I imagine it will be hard to re-open Wall St. if Albany shuts down the State.

 

[Jasmine18]

PM of india announced that tomorrow all of india 1.3 billion will be locked down at home for 21 days.

Full emergency lockdown

Extreme action but they have no choice.

 

[PinkLucy]

I've been wondering. Their worldometer numbers are obviously not telling the true story.