Next Mayor of Toronto?

[MetroMan]

The bright side is that Rob Ford has less than one third of the electorate's support and his whiny repetitive rant is starting to get to some of them.

Can a candidate win with less than 30%? Will Rossi's right wing, yet more pragmatic voters go to Rob Ford? Will the Toronto loving Joe voters sit idle while the city is handed to an extremist who will destroy it all?

I really believe that the answer to all of those questions is "no".

Smitherman's campaign is gaining strength and momentum at the right time. I think that he has the ability to win this thing by a landslide.

 

[archanfel]

...

Wow. Way to deflect. I ask an honest question about where people see this race going, and you want to re-hash old debates.

Sorry, Lucy. I'm not kicking your football.

Old debates? I guess we should not consider a candidate's past record now. Let's see who is more organized. That's new.

 

[archanfel]

The bright side is that Rob Ford has less than one third of the electorate's support and his whiny repetitive rant is starting to get to some of them.

Can a candidate win with less than 30%? Will Rossi's right wing, yet more pragmatic voters go to Rob Ford? Will the Toronto loving Joe voters sit idle while the city is handed to an extremist who will destroy it all?

I really believe that the answer to all of those questions is "no".

Smitherman's campaign is gaining strength and momentum at the right time. I think that he has the ability to win this thing by a landslide.

If I am not mistaken, Smitherman never even got 30% in recent polls. Can a candidate win with less than 20%?

 

[MetroMan]

^ Please re-read my entire post that you've quoted:

There are 4 candidates, two of which will likely remain in competition for the job. The other two will bleed votes in a larger number to one of those. Smitherman is the likely recipient so he'll end up with somewhere in the region of 40-50%. Ford has no growth potential.

 

[duper]

Old debates? I guess we should not consider a candidate's past record now. Let's see who is more organized. That's new.

Perhaps you want to look at the definition of an honest question.
You might also want to look up the definition of troll, too, because that post qualified.

 

[duper]

There are 4 candidates, two of which will likely remain in competition for the job. The other two will bleed votes in a larger number to one of those. Smitherman is the likely recipient so he'll end up with somewhere in the region of 40-50%. Ford has no growth potential.

It's still very possible that Ford could squeeze by and make it with 40% of the vote, assuming Smitherman takes 35%, Pantalone takes 15%, and Rossi claims 10%.

I have seen a few campaigns, and I never want to assume that any candidate has hit their plateau. Stranger things happen, especially in Toronto politics.
I can say about Ford, though, is that he has peaked a bit early. That poll putting him over 20% ahead in a way hurt him. A candidate does not want to peak 5 weeks before the vote.

 

[archanfel]

^ Please re-read my entire post that you've quoted:

There are 4 candidates, two of which will likely remain in competition for the job. The other two will bleed votes in a larger number to one of those. Smitherman is the likely recipient so he'll end up with somewhere in the region of 40-50%. Ford has no growth potential.

Not sure where you got those numbers. If I remembered correctly, in the Nanos Poll, 19.3% of the decided voters chose Ford as their second choice. Higher than anybody else. Unless they are all Smitherman supporters, there's nothing indicating "Smitherman is the likely recipient". He had 15.3% second choice support if I am not mistaken. In another recent poll, they were almost tied in a heads on election scenarios.

Is that believable? Who knows. People never thought Ford had a chance in the first place and polls are rarely accurate. However, no matter how you dice it, Smitherman is not leading. Just like people who would never vote for Ford, there are plenty of people who would never vote for Smitherman. Not after eHealth, health premium and "ehealth of energy". You can read up on the comment pages on Globe and Mail (I am not even counting Sun and National Post). Even Star readers are not liking him.

Do you even like him?

 

[MetroMan]

^ The "Who's your second choice" and "who would you vote for if only Ford and Smitherman were running" polls don't jive. However, the latter has more weight in a practical sense. When the race comes down to 2, Smitherman leads by a wide margin.

Do I like Smitherman? Yes. When Miller became Mayor, I admired all his city building initiatives but I knew he was delaying confronting the real problem of city finances. Smitherman has made this his priority, while still retaining what we love about Toronto. I will likely vote for him.

 

[JasonParis]

You can read up on the comment pages on Globe and Mail (I am not even counting Sun and National Post). Even Star readers are not liking him. Do you even like him?

It's very well known that comment pages on newpaper's websites are very unreflective of their reader's actual opinions. It's sort of like AM talk radio which skews to a conservative demographic.

 

[Torontovibe]

Old debates? I guess we should not consider a candidate's past record now. Let's see who is more organized. That's new.

Do we have to continuously hear the same rant over and over? Look back at your posts, you keep repeating the same crap over and over. If you haven't gotten the answers you want by now, isn't it time to give it a rest? Is it a Ford policy to repeat the same thing over and over and over, until people get so bored with the whole thing that they just tune out?

We heard you and your complaints the first 100 times you've made them. It's old news, can change the record or is the record stuck on replay? Continuously? God, talk about irritating! It's almost as bad as Ford with his repetitive "gravy train" ranting. We got it after the 10th time.

Is it turret's syndrome or something?

 

[archanfel]

Perhaps you want to look at the definition of an honest question.
You might also want to look up the definition of troll, too, because that post qualified.

How was that not an honest question? Don't you want to educate me how it was not $1 billion and how it was 4 ministers's fault rather than just Smitherman? I am all ears. I don't pretend I know the details of ehealth and I always find it puzzling how can $1 billion dollar got wasted with so very little to show for it. Maybe I was wrong. Maybe he didn't waste $1 billion. Maybe he donated it to charity or something. Maybe the eHealth was state of art and the auditor general was working for Rob Ford. You are supporting George Smitherman, so you must know something that I don't. Let's hear it.

And do you honestly believe anybody here can tell you "Does Miller's endorsement mean anything?" or "Can Pantalone hold the left vote?" I doubt even Pantalone himself would be able to tell you that.

And please, don't play the troll card. It's getting old.

 

[duper]

Even Star readers are not liking him.

Except, if you look closely, the Ford fanatics who have taken to the website all 1) repeat the same talking points and 2) hate the Star. However, 3) the Star is still the most popular newspaper in the city. That's a whole lot of readers who are not making asses of themselves on the Star's forum.


It definitely is telling of how loud, ranting and obnoxious the Ford fanatics are. The more ridiculous Ford looks in a debate, the more they love him. He's the anti-candidate.

 

[duper]

How was that not an honest question? Don't you want to educate me how it was not $1 billion and how it was 4 ministers's fault rather than just Smitherman? I am all ears. I don't pretend I know the details of ehealth and I always find it puzzling how can $1 billion dollar got wasted with so very little to show for it. Maybe I was wrong. Maybe he didn't waste $1 billion. Maybe he donated it to charity or something. Maybe the eHealth was state of art and the auditor general was working for Rob Ford. You are supporting George Smitherman, so you must know something that I don't. Let's hear it.

No, Lucy.

And do you honestly believe anybody here can tell you "Does Miller's endorsement mean anything?" or "Can Pantalone hold the left vote?" I doubt even Pantalone himself would be able to tell you that.

It's pretty straightforward. I'm asking people's opinions on where the votes will go. It's that simple.



Playing dumb, feigning upset, and changing the topic are also signs of a troll.
So rather than let the troll dictate the debate for the 100th time, this is the last time I will address you on the matter.

 

[archanfel]

Do we have to continuously hear the same rant over and over? Look back at your posts, you keep repeating the same crap over and over. If you haven't gotten the answers you want by now, isn't it time to give it a rest? Is it a Ford policy to repeat the same thing over and over and over, until people get so bored with the whole thing that they just tune out?

We heard you and your complaints the first 100 times you've made them. It's old news can change the record or is the record stuck on replay? Continuously? God, talk about irritating! It's almost as bad as Ford with his "gravy train" ranting. We got it after the 10th time.

Then why is it so hard to get an good answer (other than he learned from that)? You guys are voting for Smitherman, no? You must have a reason, right? If Smitherman's record is as good as you guys claim it is, then what's the harm of repeating it? Wouldn't more people convert to Smitherman when they heard what a good job he did?

And why is it when somebody is calling Ford a supervillan over and over again, you got no problem?

 

[archanfel]

Except, if you look closely, the Ford fanatics who have taken to the website all 1) repeat the same talking points and 2) hate the Star. However, 3) the Star is still the most popular newspaper in the city. That's a whole lot of readers who are not making asses of themselves on the Star's forum.


It definitely is telling of how loud, ranting and obnoxious the Ford fanatics are. The more ridiculous Ford looks in a debate, the more they love him. He's the anti-candidate.

Oh, I see. Everybody who dare to attack Smitherman is a Ford fanatic. That's not stereotyping at all.

We have a "Ford, why the supervillan" thread. We have people who called all Ford supporters bigots. We have people calling Ford supporters pigs. And we have people who calls all people in major news paper forums fanatics. Yeah, right, Ford supporters are fanatics.

And I am not even a firm Ford supporter yet. I have said repeatedly that I think he is childish, he is naive and he is not a good team player. If I had a choice, I would nominate him as the deficit attacker in the city, not the mayor. And I don't like that he voted for restricting parking on drive ways no matter what's his excuse. Apparently, to some people, either you are with Smitherman, or you are with Ford. Where have I heard this before? Oh right, somebody else named George. See, that's something new.