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Next Mayor of Toronto?

^ I think it has to do with all the work required to finalize the candidate list. The first thing that comes to mind is the designing and printing of the ballots and programming the ballot verification machines but I'm sure there is a lot of paperwork that needs to be done with the final candidate list in place.

Considering Rossi and Joe both have their signs printed and going out today, I don't think we'll be seeing either one drop out. Let's hope Torontonians see the writing on the wall and vote for the candidate best positioned to defeat Ford.
 
^ We've known that since last week. I don't think any of the candidates will drop out at this point. Each of them can just coast to October 25th. That does not mean that their supporters and staff won't jump to a winning candidate's side.

However, I'm hearing whispers that the provincial Liberal party is pressing Rossi to back Smitherman in exchange for a safe Liberal riding in the 2011 election and a cabinet position.

Given his standings in the polls, Rossi would do well to accept. I just don't know if his supporters would follow him.
 
Doesn't really matter what Rossi himself does now. I think once the papers are airing 'whispers' of your quitting it is over and most folks know it. A Smitherman endorsement might give George a bit of a boost, but given the tenor of the Rossi campaign at least some of his supporters will go to Ford of course.

The big question mark is Pantalone, and whether he wants to be remembered as the guy who handed City Hall to Rob Ford.

Something else I have been thinking about: whichever of George or Rob wins, a substantial chunk of the city is going to feel very, very alienated by the new regime. The Fordites will have a 'we wuz robbed' sense of injustice over their man's loss, while Smitherman-backing downtowners (and, probably a lot of other folks) will be head-slapping with disbelief if Ford gets it. In a perfect world, both candidates would commit to the old chestnut that once you are elected you serve everybody and not just the people who voted for you. However I think that in either case municipal politics is going to get more, not less polarised over the next cycle.

(if it comes down to it, I have considerable faith in George to stand up for the whole city. Not so for Rob. An interesting counterfactual to consider is how the media would treat one of the non-Ford candidates being as dismissive of, if not openly hostile to, the suburbs as Ford has been to 'downtown.' Like the supposedly downtown-centric Miller, George, Joe, and especially Rocco have bent over backwards for the outer 416, while Ford's ignorance of life south of Eglinton would be laughable if it weren't so scary).
 
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allabootmatt said:
...and is that gap getting bigger, or smaller ;)?
Click to expand...
If the gap was any bigger than the last Nanos poll, then it's over. For some reason, Nanos's methodology seems to bias towards Ford and Pantalone (rightly or wrongly). I can only imagine the gap will be less than the previous Nanos poll.
 
It's always important to note that it's not just the polls but whether those people will actually show up to vote. Ford's vote is very much anti-establishment and criitcal of City Hall and there are a lot of Torontonians who feel the same way. The Ford support is very much a "throw the bums out" and "were as mad as hell and we aren't going to take it any more" In other words I think many of Ford's supporters are more passionate about the state of the city and City Hall. People who are more passionate tend to come out and vote more.
Smitherman, on the hand, has his base support but much of his newer support is that he is an OK second choice. When a candidate drops out of a race and puts her support behind another usually most of her followers will follow suit. The issue is that those who are asked to switch sides may do so begrudgingly and therefore are less likely to vote at all or maybe spoil their ballot.
If I was in an election race that was 50/50 support i would feel much more confident and comfortable knowing my support was from strong backers than the other guy who has only half of his backers as solid ones and the other half feeling that he is the only choice they have.
 
I feel a bit like a loser, but I awake these next polls like a child waits for his momma to pick him up from the daycare, lol. At the same time though, as I've been learning in my statistics class this semester, polls can be pathetically inaccurate, so I wonder if they do more to mislead to public into voting a certain way or thinking that someone has a huge lead when they really don't.

Also, I was speaking to some family friends (inner suburbanites) last night, and they said they'd be voting for Smitherman cause he's a smart guy and the most seasoned politician. I just thought it was interesting, as non-downtown folks, that they were so horrified by the idea of ford coming into office. Maybe there's hope!
 
There's more than hope left, Big Tony. Remember that elections are won or lost by people actually coming out and voting for you. Especially in municipal elections where 30-35% turnout is the norm.

Whoever gets their vote out will win.
 
ssiguy2 said:
It's always important to note that it's not just the polls but whether those people will actually show up to vote. Ford's vote is very much anti-establishment and criitcal of City Hall and there are a lot of Torontonians who feel the same way. The Ford support is very much a "throw the bums out" and "were as mad as hell and we aren't going to take it any more" In other words I think many of Ford's supporters are more passionate about the state of the city and City Hall. People who are more passionate tend to come out and vote more.
Smitherman, on the hand, has his base support but much of his newer support is that he is an OK second choice. When a candidate drops out of a race and puts her support behind another usually most of her followers will follow suit. The issue is that those who are asked to switch sides may do so begrudgingly and therefore are less likely to vote at all or maybe spoil their ballot.
If I was in an election race that was 50/50 support i would feel much more confident and comfortable knowing my support was from strong backers than the other guy who has only half of his backers as solid ones and the other half feeling that he is the only choice they have.
Click to expand...

Your reasoning makes sense but polls have shown the opposite. Out of firm "I WILL VOTE" voters polled, Smitherman would win by a landslide.
 
I think it's a classic battle between anger and fear: anger among Ford's supporters towards city hall, and fear among George's that Ford will get in.

Advantage fear.
 
MetroMan said:
^ We've known that since last week. I don't think any of the candidates will drop out at this point. Each of them can just coast to October 25th. That does not mean that their supporters and staff won't jump to a winning candidate's side.

However, I'm hearing whispers that the provincial Liberal party is pressing Rossi to back Smitherman in exchange for a safe Liberal riding in the 2011 election and a cabinet position.

Given his standings in the polls, Rossi would do well to accept. I just don't know if his supporters would follow him.
Click to expand...

Rossi would have no problem getting his own liberal riding if he wanted to, at the federal level at that.

I don't think he's a fan of McGuinty, especially the hammering that he's done to the provincial ibs.
 
Rossi is an Ignateiff Liberal which is quite different than a McGuinty Liberal or a Dion Liberal or a Rae Liberal.

I still think Rossi has fundamental likeability issues that will hurt him in any campaign but if he picks the right riding and gets weak opposition then, sure, he could be an MP.
 
Well, today is the opening of advance polls. At this point, it's very unlikely that Rossi or Pants will drop out as their supporters will have already begun voting for them. We're stuck with this lineup and it's up to the voters to get behind the Ford challenger best positioned to defeat him if they don't want Mayor Ford running this city.

Joe is still my first choice but I'm all but settled on voting for Smitherman unless things change dramatically. With 3 weeks to go, the election is now at the forefront of people's mind so all those undecideds will begin making up their minds and their views reflected in the polls. Things can change dramatically with people paying attention to the debates, lawn signs going up, ads being shown in the papers, on the radio and TV.

I've got hope that Ford has used up all his magic tricks at this point and people are growing tired of his negativity. If the race opens up amongst the other 3, I'll be happy to vote for my favourite and not the anti-Ford challenger. The next 2 polls will be crucial.
 
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