SimonP
Active Member
Yep, the new EKOS poll has the NDP at 33% in Quebec, to the Bloc's 30%. It also has the NDP at 25% nationally, only a point behind the Liberals.
A third poll is out with the NDP first in Quebec, and ahead of the Liberals nationally. If this is sustained (a big if) Jack will be leader of the opposition.
There is also 10% of the electorate who prefer Jack to Ignatieff, and NDP policies over Liberal ones, but have so far been planning to vote Liberal. Either because they have always have, or because the Liberals were the party that could form a government. It will be interesting to see if these voters start to swing over as well.
Yes, to some extent, but some of the former Bloc vote will go Cons., especially in the Quebec City area. Observers were suggesting that the Conservatives were in danger of losing three or four of their seats, but that now is looking less likely.Yes, but if the NDP continues to surge it'll be the Liberals nemesis as people willl plant their vote with the NDP to prevent a CPC Majority.
I disagree about a Liberal/NDP merger. There is still a strong section of the Liberals that aren't to the left. Parts of the Liberal coalition such as Bay Streeters, Anglo-Montrealers, and rural Catholics are not terribly progressive and would very likely prefer the Conservatives to a merged NDP/Liberal party.
As much as NDPers may love this surge, this is very bad news for centre/left Canada and the best thing that could have happened to Harper, one week before election day.
In the past, NDP would lose support to the Liberals last minute to rally support around the realistic alternative against the Conservatives. It doesn't appear that this will happen this time. Since strategy is being removed as motivation to switch to Liberal, NDP voters will stick to their choice right up to the ballot box. Unless Ignatieff suffers a serious meltdown, this 50/50 split will remain, the Conservatives will win seats in tight ridings all over the country and walk away with a majority.
If this happens, it will be time for the Liberals and the NDP to consider merging over the next 4 years. Right versus Left-A versus Left-B means the Right has a permanent advantage that they acquired with the Alliance/Conservative merger. The left needs to do this too. Another alternative would be for the NDP to build on this surge, drop the "New" from their name and rebrand as the Democratic Party and move closer to the centre to replace the Liberals as the other Conservative adversary.
NDP surging in Quebec? I'm not surprised. There are a lot rumours Jack will step down after this election... and its a 90%+ probability the next leader is Thomas Muclair - the NDP's first quebec MP and Quebec'ers love most Quebec leaders (and imo this guy could be the first NDP PM...).