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Latest Federal polls

I think Towered has it right. We are in for years of minority governments. As for a Liberal / NDP / Bloc coalition, I think the Liberals, if not the NDP, now recognize that it would be a kiss of death.

All of that said, I'm not complaining. I would prefer a minority govt. rather than a majority, as I think we get some semblance of a responsive government, which I don't think we would get if either Harper or Iggy had a majority.
 
The real question going forward is what happens to the Conservative Party of Canada post-Harper. And if Harper delivers only another minority government in the next election (he will), will some of the base start grumbling against him?
 
Towered said:
Looks like Canada won't be seeing another majority government for a long time.
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I'd drink to this. It means that people will be pressured to work together rather than ram their own agendas while stepping on the toes of others.
If only PC came back somehow, so that these neocons would not be in power.


edit:
GraphicMatt said:
The real question going forward is what happens to the Conservative Party of Canada post-Harper. And if Harper delivers only another minority government in the next election (he will), will some of the base start grumbling against him?
Click to expand...

It's not certain that his party will be the main vote getter.
It's such a shame that PC joined with reform. They should have been called "Radical Christian freaks supporting Neoliberalism" rather than Reform.
 
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GraphicMatt said:
The real question going forward is what happens to the Conservative Party of Canada post-Harper. And if Harper delivers only another minority government in the next election (he will), will some of the base start grumbling against him?
Click to expand...

People keep saying this. I don't buy it. Why would the party faithful in any party complain about a leader who's winning elections? Minority or majority, Harper has brought the Conservatives back into government after a decade+ long hiatus.

The only way he'll get the boot is if he loses. In which case, he'll probably resign as leader anyway.
 
That post is from a long time ago, when I wasn't anticipating this election. At the time, I was thinking Harper would eventually force an election himself, in a bid to get into majority territory.

In the landscape of the current election, which is Liberal-driven, I think the base will be happy with a return to a minority situation.

Still, though, the point holds: Harper and the party want a majority very badly. At some point in the future, should they not achieve it, frustration will set in.
 
GraphicMatt said:
At some point in the future, should they not achieve it, frustration will set in.
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I've got the impression for some time that frustration is setting in.

They don't seem to be running the same kind of very smooth campaign they did in 2006 and 2008. There's almost a daily blunder ... which seems to be driven by frustration ...

We've seen no significant movement in the polls since that magical point at Christmas 2005 when suddenly in the space of about 2 weeks the Liberals went from mid-high-30s and Conservatives were low 30's, to Conservatives being mid-high 30's and Liberals low 30's and high 20's. And polling has been pretty much unchanged, with only oscillations, ever since. I think the trigger for that even was the announcement by the RCMP that they were investigating some members of the Liberal party. There had been story after story leading up to that about Liberal corruption, but it was the RCMP announcement just before Christmas that seemed to break the camel's back.

I'm starting to wonder, however, if we are on the cusp of the first change in poll results in 6 years ... and I'm wondering if there is a straw that breaks the camel's back, what it will be.

Could be an interesting 2-3 weeks. I'm certainly looking forward to the one-on-one debate Harper proposed last week.
 
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I've been asked to be part of an Ipsos-Reid poll regarding the debate. For years I've said "who answers these things" because I've never known anyone who had been polled. :)
 
Brandon716 said:
Has anyone else noticed that the Nanos poll consistently shows the Conservatives a good 3-5 points ahead of other polls? I wished I knew their sampling information.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/interactives/cv11-poll-tracker/
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On the other hand all the polls show significant increase in Liberal support compared to the 2008 election (~30% comapred to 26%) at expense of the NDP, Bloc and Green Party. Also, all the polls seem to indicate a steady increase in Liberal support in the past 2-3 weeks.
 
All the polls pretty much show the same result as 2006 and 2008, given the margin of error. No surprises coming.
 
That result seems to be at odds with the 4 polls released since then. While it seems NDP support does seem to have recovered to what it was before the election started, everyone else has them about 20, rather than 25. That's looking like the 1/20 poll.
 
CBC is reporting that the NDP has overtaken the Bloc in popular support in the province of Quebec.

This changes everything.
 
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