Lack of meaningful Passenger Rail service outside the Quebec-Windsor Corridor

[micheal_can]

There are 4(5) trains served out of the TMC that serve the West. They are; Canadian, Winnipeg - Churchill, Sudbury - White River, Jasper - Prince Rupert, and (Victoria Courtney/E&N). Of these, the Sudbury - White River and Jasper - Prince Rupert all are less than 12 hours. Via divides the Jasper- Prince Rupert into 2 segments. Also, if the E&N is ever running again,it is also less than 12 hours. This does mean that those 2(3) routes could be done without sleepers. Just like the shorter routes,the existing Siemens trains could be transferred over.
The only challenges would be:
1)Jasper - Prince Rupert would need twice as many trains as the other shorter routes as even though it only goes during the day, it still takes 2 days to do it.
2) Sudbury - White River would need to see if there are enough slots to fit more Via trains with CP.
3) Canadian would need to see if there are more slots with CN.

As with the east, the single biggest hurdle would be the funding.

 

[dowlingm]

Would you agree that had they decided to replace the fleet back then, ignoring those costs, the subsidy would have gone down due to the lower operational costs for the same number of equipment?
If so, can you see how even though not explicitly stated, that the age of the existing LDF is a potential reason for the CPC government to cut the service instead of replacing it?

Lower operating costs is something of an assumption but even if that is the case - the cost of buying the trainsets needs to be accounted for. Buying new equipment is not a magic wand to turn uneconomic routes into economic ones.

The reason that the LD fleet is being replaced in a decade and not now is that the cheapest option remains running the wheels off the equipment you have, not buying more complex newer vehicles and paying USD for them. In the case of the corridor fleet, the safety case could no longer be put off given the state of the Rens and LRCs.

 

[micheal_can]

Lower operating costs is something of an assumption but even if that is the case - the cost of buying the trainsets needs to be accounted for. Buying new equipment is not a magic wand to turn uneconomic routes into economic ones.

The reason that the LD fleet is being replaced in a decade and not now is that the cheapest option remains running the wheels off the equipment you have, not buying more complex newer vehicles and paying USD for them. In the case of the corridor fleet, the safety case could no longer be put off given the state of the Rens and LRCs.

I know that it is not a magic wand. however, it is a wand that when used may cause lower costs over enough time to make sense. I look at the fleet replacement as a person buying a car. Outside of the government telling you it can no longer be used, everyone will have a line at which keeping it on the road is not worth it. Following that analogy, the government is waiting too long for them to be pulled off the road. How much worse are the Rens and LRCs compared to the LDF?

 

[dowlingm]

I know that it is not a magic wand. however, it is a wand that when used may cause lower costs over enough time to make sense. I look at the fleet replacement as a person buying a car. Outside of the government telling you it can no longer be used, everyone will have a line at which keeping it on the road is not worth it. Following that analogy, the government is waiting too long for them to be pulled off the road. How much worse are the Rens and LRCs compared to the LDF?

The LRCs are in such a bad state that their planned refurb was terminated. Meanwhile HEP cars continue to be life-extended. I don’t have specifics on the Rens - presumably the side sill rusting was either not repairable or not repairable at reasonable economic cost.

But at the end of the day sometimes business cases don’t exist for new equipment - look at how Mexico is importing flogged out Mk3s and Amfleets rather than buy new. I would love for the Tories to lose power in Ontario and the real story published about the purchase of the Northlander sets and what exactly were the comparators done between getting legacy cars somewhere and paying for an SC-40 to haul around 3 coaches and also pay Siemens to maintain them - assuming that doesn’t only exist in personal email accounts and text message chains.

 

[micheal_can]

The LRCs are in such a bad state that their planned refurb was terminated. Meanwhile HEP cars continue to be life-extended. I don’t have specifics on the Rens - presumably the side sill rusting was either not repairable or not repairable at reasonable economic cost.

But at the end of the day sometimes business cases don’t exist for new equipment - look at how Mexico is importing flogged out Mk3s and Amfleets rather than buy new. I would love for the Tories to lose power in Ontario and the real story published about the purchase of the Northlander sets and what exactly were the comparators done between getting legacy cars somewhere and paying for an SC-40 to haul around 3 coaches and also pay Siemens to maintain them - assuming that doesn’t only exist in personal email accounts and text message chains.

We should not be happy about a comparison to Mexico.

The Northlander issue is one that is personal to me on many levels. I feel that what is being done is more political than much else. My hope is it is a success and not just a vote buying venture.

 

[micheal_can]

Currently, due to problems on the CN Newcastle Sub, the Ocean is being rerouted on the Napadogan and Pellatier subs. The chatter on Facebook is about whether this could be a permanent thing. With the discussions of a Saint John -Moction - Halifax train, if there were the money, reactivating the Fredericton sub to connect those subs to the McAdam sub could allow the Ocean to have 2 routes through New Brunswick.

 

[roger1818]

Currently, due to problems on the CN Newcastle Sub, the Ocean is being rerouted on the Napadogan and Pellatier subs. The chatter on Facebook is about whether this could be a permanent thing. With the discussions of a Saint John -Moction - Halifax train, if there were the money, reactivating the Fredericton sub to connect those subs to the McAdam sub could allow the Ocean to have 2 routes through New Brunswick.

If there isn't money to maintain the Newcastle Sub, what makes you think there would be money to reactivate the Fredericton Sub?

 

[micheal_can]

If there isn't money to maintain the Newcastle Sub, what makes you think there would be money to reactivate the Fredericton Sub?

I know there isn't any money. I meant more of if money became available to fund a second route in the Maritimes.

 

[dowlingm]

I know there isn't any money. I meant more of if money became available to fund a second route in the Maritimes.

If only the politics of the situation didn’t rule out the efficiency and financial gain for VIA of moving to the NTR permanently and let Quebec and New Brunswick figure out how or if to have passenger rail north of Rivière du Loup.

 

[micheal_can]

If only the politics of the situation didn’t rule out the efficiency and financial gain for VIA of moving to the NTR permanently and let Quebec and New Brunswick figure out how or if to have passenger rail north of Rivière du Loup.

You mean south/east...

The problem is, we are tying to justify transportation metrics that in Canada most of it would not exist. Sometimes it cannot be what is financially feasible and what would help the area. For instance, is there enough traffic between QC and Halifax to justify the whole way being a divided highway? Not really. However, by reducing the number of accidents, it does make it worth doing.

So, how this ties into the railways, financially, there are other places where it would better serve more people. However,liking the 3 major cities within NB also does make some sense. If it were to happen before places on the Prairies, I would feel that it was more political than financial sense.

List of cities in New Brunswick - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[micheal_can]

To follow up with why the second route could be added and be worth it, the current Ocean goes through the 1(Moncton),4(Dieppe), 6,(Mirimichi) 7(Bathurst) and 8th(Campbellton) largest cities of New Brunswick. It misses the 2(Saint John), 3(Fredericton), and 5th(Edmunston). Those cities would be served by adding that subdivision. CN might be able to also use it to better serve the Saint John port.

 

[lenaitch]

To follow up with why the second route could be added and be worth it, the current Ocean goes through the 1(Moncton),4(Dieppe), 6,(Mirimichi) 7(Bathurst) and 8th(Campbellton) largest cities of New Brunswick. It misses the 2(Saint John), 3(Fredericton), and 5th(Edmunston). Those cities would be served by adding that subdivision. CN might be able to also use it to better serve the Saint John port.

I suppose by "reactivating" rail to Fredericton you mean re-laying it from Fredericton Jct., which may require re-purchasing any parts of the ROW that have been build over or sold.

By referencing "that subdivision", what subdivision is it that serves Saint John, Fredericton and Edmunston?

Since you reference the McAdam sub, do we assume you are referring to the route through northern Maine, which is owned by, I believe New Brunswick Southern, Eastern Maine and CPKC.

 

[dowlingm]

So it seems (discussion in groups.io) that the detour 14/15 trains were crewed by a CN pilot and VIA crew at freight speeds. In theory, a consist with a crew experienced with running the territory at Class 3/4 passenger speed could have shaved even more time than the three hours they saved already (10-20km/h over 305km), although that would be subject to crossing re-timing.

 

[micheal_can]

I suppose by "reactivating" rail to Fredericton you mean re-laying it from Fredericton Jct., which may require re-purchasing any parts of the ROW that have been build over or sold.

By referencing "that subdivision", what subdivision is it that serves Saint John, Fredericton and Edmunston?

Since you reference the McAdam sub, do we assume you are referring to the route through northern Maine, which is owned by, I believe New Brunswick Southern, Eastern Maine and CPKC.

The Subdivision that went from Fredericton Junction to Fredericton, over the river to meet the existing CN line. Then, yes,the subdivision between Fredericton Junction to Saint John. None of which leaves Canada.

 

[dowlingm]

To follow up with why the second route could be added and be worth it, the current Ocean goes through the 1(Moncton),4(Dieppe), 6,(Mirimichi) 7(Bathurst) and 8th(Campbellton) largest cities of New Brunswick. It misses the 2(Saint John), 3(Fredericton), and 5th(Edmunston). Those cities would be served by adding that subdivision. CN might be able to also use it to better serve the Saint John port.

VIA should do none of those things if right now they can’t afford a power switch in Moncton. If New Brunswick wants to, and will pay, perhaps. Given that they seem to have allowed every foot of rail in Fredericton to be turned into trails, I doubt we will be seeing anything close to what’s described.