News   Jul 09, 2024
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Keir Starmers' United Kingdom

A well-deserved slaughter, it seems.

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Now beyond the election- consolidation.
 
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Well I was more delighted to see Sunak go than joy at Keir Starmer winning ...

Some of Labour's "Tory-lite" positions and their LGBTQ+ policies are not good enough - but I look forward to seeing how they will govern. I think Starmer is going to be a better administrator than he is a politician!

The Planning Reform is going to be fascinating - the UK needs a hell of a lot of new homes.
Housing
  • Reform the planning system and reinstate local targets to help build 1.5 million new homes over five years
  • Build a new generation of new towns, fast track the approval of brownfield sites and release some "low quality" green belt for housing
  • Prioritise the building of social rented homes and give first-time buyers the chance to buy homes in new developments before investors
  • Introduce a permanent mortgage guarantee scheme to help first-time buyers
  • Make it easier and cheaper for leaseholders to extend leases and ban new leasehold flats, while tackling unregulated ground rent charges
  • Ban so-called no-fault evictions and empower renters to challenge rent rises
 
The Planning Reform is going to be fascinating - the UK needs a hell of a lot of new homes.

These sound mostly meh........with a couple of question marks.

Reform the planning system and reinstate local targets to help build 1.5 million new homes over five years

Very non-specific so its difficult to say much here.

Build a new generation of new towns, fast track the approval of brownfield sites and release some "low quality" green belt for housing

The first part sounds fine, maybe......except......the last part sound terrible.............It sounds like more sprawl and less countryside.

Prioritise the building of social rented homes and give first-time buyers the chance to buy homes in new developments before investors

This sounds ok............though the second part will be interesting...........what's the plan, an attestation that you're going to live in the home? What's the penalty if you don't?

Introduce a permanent mortgage guarantee scheme to help first-time buyers

That sounds like demand stimulus, which in the absence of new supply will simply drive prices up.

Make it easier and cheaper for leaseholders to extend leases and ban new leasehold flats, while tackling unregulated ground rent charges

This I need to hear more about, can you elaborate on what the issue is here?

Ban so-called no-fault evictions and empower renters to challenge rent rises

So there's no rent control now?

****

My take:

1) The UK needs to flat-line population growth for a couple of years to allow the market and social housing to catch up to where the population is now.......

2) The UK needs to boot out many TFWs and people who are not legitimate asylum seekers.

3) The social housing promise should be for the Vienna model (mixed-income rental where social or low-income housing is no more than 1/3 of a build or complex'es renters.

4) A commitment should be made to redevelop older Council Estates into the Vienna model, intensifying lower-rise communities by at least 50%, but properly ammenitizing and shifting to the Vienna-model to remove
social stigma and raise quality of life. New buildings should be completed off-site first to allow for relocation of residents during redevelopment.

5) Tenants should generally benefit from rent control unless vacancy in the market exceeds 4% so that tenants have a fair negotiating position and alternatives available.
 
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Very non-specific so its difficult to say much here.
Basically the Conservatives got rid of housing targets, so lots of places went "yay, we don't want development, so no target means we can't be forced to build!"

A more YIMBY attitude has to be a good thing - the Conservatives blocked TfL building apartment on a car park adjacent to a Tube station.

The number of young people voting Conservative has fallen dramatically - given there's a strong link between owning your own home and voting Conservative.
The first part sounds fine, maybe......except......the last part sound terrible.............It sounds like more sprawl and less countryside.
The term being suggested is "grey belt" - land that is green belt but is brownfield or very low quality.
"This new category will include "poor-quality scrubland, mothballed on the outskirts of town" like a disused petrol station in Tottenham currently designated as green belt"

Annoyingly there's several Tube stations in London where housing without building on agricultural land/parks are possible - but currently being used by scrappy industry etc. But it's green belt.

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Thiis sounds ok............though the second part will be interesting...........what's the plan, an attestation that you're going to live in the home? What's the penalty if you don't?
The Mayor of London has already done this in London with a voluntary scheme - basically getting developers to offer new homes to UK buyers first, rather than selling off plan investments in Hong Kong/Singapore etc. And yeah, the tax regime already allows benefits for first time buyers over other purchasers.
That sounds like demand stimulus, which in the absence of new supply will simply drive prices up.
Yep, agreed. Having just bought a place (woooop!) the issue was saving up for the bloody deposit (10% of £450,000 is a lot!), not the monthly cost of the mortgage. That is about as much as we were paying in rent (just over £2k a month)
This I need to hear more about, can you elaborate on what the issue is here?
Ugh, what a mess. Freehold – You own the property and the land it's built on for as long as you want. Leasehold – You own the property for a set period, but not the land it's built on.

For a leasehold apartment, you may own it for 999 years, but the freehold land of the building is owned by someone. You may pay them "ground rent" for zero benefit other than they own the land (we pay £400 a year) - this is completely unregulated and people have been caught in things where the cost of ground rent triples in cost and they can't challenge it.

Older leasehold places may have had shorter leases (e.g. 99 years) and people trying to negotiate a new lease have found the "landlord" charging outrageous prices for it, sometimes more than the value of the property.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw00j4x5nnyo Conservatives did pass half a bill, but landlord and pension funds managed to cut the "worst" of the bill - i.e. caps on how much they could charge people.
So there's no rent control now?
Nope!
http://Leasehold reforms become law without ground rent cap
 
Ugh, what a mess. Freehold – You own the property and the land it's built on for as long as you want. Leasehold – You own the property for a set period, but not the land it's built on.

For a leasehold apartment, you may own it for 999 years, but the freehold land of the building is owned by someone. You may pay them "ground rent" for zero benefit other than they own the land (we pay £400 a year) - this is completely unregulated and people have been caught in things where the cost of ground rent triples in cost and they can't challenge it.

Older leasehold places may have had shorter leases (e.g. 99 years) and people trying to negotiate a new lease have found the "landlord" charging outrageous prices for it, sometimes more than the value of the property.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw00j4x5nnyo Conservatives did pass half a bill, but landlord and pension funds managed to cut the "worst" of the bill - i.e. caps on how much they could charge people.

TY for the through set of answers.......

On the above, Weird.

Not much of a thing here.

The Rice Group built a few retirement communities on this sort of model with homes that were literally modular, and in theory, could be put on a truck and moved. Generally, I think, the terms were own the home but the land was 25 years, with annual maintenance fees (private community so it covered roads, community centre etc.)

But it never really took off here. In general (there are exceptions) if you buy a home here, (as in a house form) the land comes with it.


Also weird, to me. Of course Toronto has no rent control on relatively new buildings, but does on the vast majority of rental stock.

I can envision different variations from fixed caps in law (any increase up to 'x' percent or inflation + x percent etc.) or something else......but the idea that as soon as one year after moving on a landlord can jack the rent without limit seems
problematic given the cost of moving.

I could imagine many landlords in such a situation intentionally pricing a bit low to fill a unit, then going as high as they think a tenant will pay as soon as the term allows.
 
All of the planning stuff has a direct impact on my job as an urban planner - noting that where I work, we're already planning for ~50,000 new homes in the next ten years, in a borough of about 350,000 and 36km2.

The thing that is holding up new homes for us - is the lack of infrastructure to support it, an extension of the DLR to serve a new town centre being one example. Quite rightly, TfL don't support high density in places with very low PTAL (public transport accessibility level), so new public transport is needed to serve vast developments, thereby raising the PTAL.
The previous Conservative government was not keen on spending money in London, especially when it "helps" a Labour Mayor of London...

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Another example would be the Bakerloo line extension - which is estimated to deliver around 27,000 new homes in south east London.
 

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