Because the topic comes up so regularly, but little documentation has reached the public domain - there is, after all, no EA - I decided to offer an amateur view of just what makes the Milton Line such a daunting route to enlarge. Here's my commentary for those who wonder why more isn't happening quickly.
The tour of the line, with comments:
- The route is two tracks, with a short stretch of third track east of Erindale.
- West of Scarlett Road, all the GO related infrastructure is on the north side. If track is to be added, the most logical place to add track for GO is on the north side. The most logical place to add track for CP freight is on the south side.
- Headways at rush hour are now low enough that CP cannot make any use of the north track - it is effectively dedicated to GO
- The one track available for CP, on the south, is a straight shot from Milton to Scarlett Road. CP can run unidirectionally while GO is occupying the north track, but has no place for trains to meet anywhere on the line. Off-peak, CP can currently use both tracks to run bidirectionally,
- Even when two tracks are available, CP has virtually nowhere to stop a train without fouling level crossings. A 14,000 foot train travelling at 30 mph will foul a crossing (gates down to gates up) for approximately 6-7 minutes. If the train moves slower, as it will if it has to decelerate to a restrictive signal or accelerate from a stop, the blockage can easily be ten minutes. This is fundamentally unacceptable in an urban area due to traffic volume and the potential need for emergency vehicles to cross. This constraint rules out more creative running patterns. (Note the mileages on my map to demonstrate how restricting this is)
- Because CP has no place to bypass a freight train, there is no place where GO can run a counterflow train at peak, or run a frequent 2WAD service, unless more track is added to keep the second GO direction away from CP freights.
- A look at Google Maps shows that a third track has already been roughed in at many of the existing grade separations and culverts. However, there are seven creeks/rivers that would need new bridges to create a second GO track on the north side. A couple of these are pretty major spans. In addition, there are two road separations that would need a new span. Only a couple of the stations have passenger tunnels under the track, and these would be needed. All of this construction, plus grading and fill and sound walls, is needed to give GO a two track corridor....not cheap.
- Now consider what it would take to give CP more track capacity . Since the new GO track would use up much of the roughed-in capacity, even more new bridges and overpasses would be needed. I counted nine creek bridges and twelve road separations that would be needed to give CP two way capacity on the line.
- Don't forget there may be any number of utilities, fiber cables, sewer and water mains, gas mains, and who knows what else that would have to be relocated. I have no data on any of this.
What would I do?
Phase I
- Double track the zone from Dupont to Union. No pointing fingers at CP when MLcan't run bidirectionally if it wanted to... this zone is a prerequisite to upgrading Milton service.
- Build a new GO track Dixie to west of Cooksville, giving GO a 2-track mainline from Royal York to Erindale. Initiate turnbacks from Erindale at peak. Possibly, CP would allow turnbacks to use the first trainlength of the Orangeville line. Depending on headways it would be possible to interleave one or two of these with the peak service without adding track west of Erindale. Off-peak, hourly service to Milton would be possible. Interleave with hourly turnbacks at Erindale, and you have 30 minute headways from Erindale to Union.
- Upgrade the Obico South Service Track to a main line, with signalled switch east of the West Mall (CP calls that location 'The Annex') giving a freight siding on the south side of the current main line. Gives CP another contingency to manage freights.
- Add a passing track for CP on the south side running from 10th Line east to Meadowvale, allowing CP some ability to run bidirectionally while GO is occupying the north track.
Back of envelope cost estimate: $200 million, without upgrading stations.
Phase II
- Grade separate the level crossings at Erindale Station Road and Wolfedale Road. That would give a zone where a second CP freight track could be added. Adding that track would greatly improve CP's ability to run its own trains while GO makes fuller use of the current north track. The new track would start east of the Credit River, and end west of Cooksville.
- Judiciously add GO track west of Streetsville so that GO trains can pass each other out there.
Back of envelope cost estimate: $300 million
What's left?
- Don't even think of more than 30 minute 2WAD without building a flyover around Lambton or the Humber River. Too much interference to CP.
- Adding even a third track through Streetsville is problemmatic. Start working with the community to figure that one out. We might well end up with a Weston-like tunnel.
- A third and fourth track over the Credit River will be needed once Streetsville is figured out.
- Grade separate 5th Line, 6th Line, 9th Line, and 10th Line to give CP more flexibility and eventually lay a full second CP mainline, plus a full GO second main line.
- Link the second CP main line from west of Cooksville to that new mainline east of Dixie/Annex.
Cost estimate to complete? Easily $1 Billion.
All of this is just my musing, driven by some general informed comments from experts but without any inside knowledge of plans etc. CP and ML might have totally different opinions and requirements.
If there were one single thing I would do to improve service.... it's see what CP would charge to implement a turnback using the Orangeville line as a stub track. Run a couple of trains out from Willowbrook before the morning peak, and interleave these with the ten Milton based trains to add seats on closer headways from Streetsville east. Reverse the process in the afternoon. Or at least to Erindale. Once ML has rebuilt the Canpa interlocking, it may have the ability to run trains out the west end of Willowbrook Yard and up the Canpa without conflict with LSW trains. That would solve the dearth of storage at Milton.... but that initial $200 million for new track would probably avoid the expense of four $50 trainsets, so it's a very cost effective way to build the line.
Sorry to be verbose.
- Paul