Debate on the merits of the Scarborough Subway Extension

[44 North]

Ford worked with McGuinty and Metrolinx to come up with the combined plan. Transit experts at Metrolinx even did a Benefit Cost analysis and found it to be the best.
Ford worked more co-operatively with transit experts than David Miller, who forced the Transit City LRT on many routes.

This is where it would have been beneficial for Council to work with Ford. Ford wanted to built transit away from cars, that also achieves cars away from transit. Council began to reconsider their priorities and were thinking that maybe the DRL would be the top priority. With this as the climate, a reasonable approach would have been to save money by elevation and transfer it to the DRL - a win for both sides.

But 'saving money' + working on the RL was never part of any deal, nor during any follow-up council sessions post MOU. In Ford's meeting with McGuinty+Metrolinx it was either a) Prov fund Sheppard and existing/TC Crosstown, or b) only Eglinton-Scarboro subway (with council doing all of Sheppard). Continued epithets about 'only underground' (i.e no elevation), no RL, no anything else. The whole thing was screwy, shadowy, and I don't think your comment about Ford 'working more co-operatively with transit experts than Miller' holds any water...it was like three guys behind closed doors with two options to choose from.

 

[Rainforest]

Connecting the SRT to Eglinton LRT gave a one-transfer ride from Scarborough to Downtown. Rather than spend $4 billion on the SSE to eliminate a transfer, you could have just connected the two lines for a one-transfer ride downtown. Grade-separating a section of the line (which could be elevated instead of tunneled) is much better than abandoning an existing functioning piece of transit infrastructure and building a separate parallel route that goes to the exact same place in the most expensive way possible.

I doubt that the SLRT - Eglinton line would end up being cheaper than SSE. The SLRT portion would probably cost around $2 billion in today's dollars. Grade-separating Eglinton East could cost $1 billion if mostly elevated (against some local objections), or likely closer to $2 billion if fully underground.

And, it would cause more operational issues than SSE.

 

[Rainforest]

Plans devised by competent professionals aren't always going to appeal to everyone's fantasies. They're going to be based on actual facts and real data.

Ford's Scarborough 'plans' were just the opposite - vote buying fantasies that played on the idea that anything less than underground transit is some sort of crime against Scarborough, regardless of transit needs across the rest of the city.

It has to be pointed out that Smitherman, Ford's main opponent in the 2010' elections, had SLRT replaced with subway extension in his transit platform. He wanted to keep most of Transit City intact, but enhance it by adding subway in this particular corridor.

Speaking of the missed opportunities, that was a major one. We would have a network pretty similar to what we are getting now, but built 2 to 5 years earlier and thus avoiding some of the cost escalations.

Smitherman lost to Ford by mere 13% or so.

 

[Steve X]

Calm down...tram city is being built in other parts of Scarborough

In other parts of the world, this would be an awesome thing. Scarborough is special for giving a thumbs down.

 

[BurlOak]

The SSE was borne between early 2012 and late 2103. This period started with Council proudly announcing that they took back the transit file from Ford. Then had June 2012 Metrolinx report (that found combined Eglinton-Scarborough LRT was best) hidden from public, Councillors and other decision makers. Then had Liberals make a 180 degree turn and start campaigning as "Subway Champions" to win a by-election. This period in which Ford had ZERO influence was when the SSE was adopted and all levels formed their opinions.

If Councillors would have considered trying to improve the Ford plan, and/or if the provincial Liberals would not had hidden the Benefit-Cost report, we may have gotten something much better.
By the 2014 Provincial and City election, it was already too late as trying to change the SSE plan at that point was not on the table (consider that all Provincial parties and 2 top mayoralty candidates supported the SSE).

 

[aquateam]

I doubt that the SLRT - Eglinton line would end up being cheaper than SSE. The SLRT portion would probably cost around $2 billion in today's dollars. Grade-separating Eglinton East could cost $1 billion if mostly elevated (against some local objections), or likely closer to $2 billion if fully underground.

$2 billion to refurbish an existing line? The last estimate was $360 million, which I'm sure has inflated in 10 years since then, but not by a factor of 6.

Even if it costs the same price, you end up with more kilometers of rapid transit than the status quo, and with reduced operating costs.

Just imagine it:

And, it would cause more operational issues than SSE.

But it's grade-separated. They could use ATO, just like the SRT is capable of doing, and the thing could operate itself. That's a huge improvement over the operational issues caused by all the traffic lights, pedestrians/cars going across the tracks, collisions, etc. that occur with at-grade transit.

 

[amnesiajune]

$2 billion to refurbish an existing line? The last estimate was $360 million, which I'm sure has inflated in 10 years since then, but not by a factor of 6.

That wouldn't have been a refurbishment. That would've been a full tear-down and rebuild. Essentially the same as the LRT option (which was $1.8 billion in 2013, and is now probably somewhere in the $2.5B-$3B range), but connected to the Eglinton line so that you could go straight through to Don Mills, Yonge and Eglinton West without a transfer.

 

[Rainforest]

$2 billion to refurbish an existing line? The last estimate was $360 million, which I'm sure has inflated in 10 years since then, but not by a factor of 6.

Looks like you are right, at least partly. $2 billion would be today's cost of SLRT going to Sheppard & Progress. But since SSE has been cut to STC, a fair comparison would be with Eglinton+SLRT running to STC only.

$360 million is definitely both low-balled and not corrected for the inflation to-date, but it would be unlikely to exceed $1 billion with all corrections.

But it's grade-separated. They could use ATO, just like the SRT is capable of doing, and the thing could operate itself. That's a huge improvement over the operational issues caused by all the traffic lights, pedestrians/cars going across the tracks, collisions, etc. that occur with at-grade transit.

I don't expect many delays or collisions along that section of Eglinton between Brentcliffe and Kennedy, which anyway operates like a mini-highway. The LRT will have its dedicated lanes, not fully exclusive but still largely separated from general traffic.

As for traffic lights, even subways are not totally free of them in a sense; there are control signals in the tunnels.

Even if ATO and full grade separation would ensure sufficient capacity of the Eglinton line itself, it wouldn't help the potential overcrowding of Yonge between Eglinton and Bloor. Now the chokepoint on Yonge is just south of Bloor, but with the massive shift in ridership patterns, it could well shift to just north of Bloor.

 

[Sakraycore]

Sometimes I wonder what's the point of debating on something that won't operate until freaking 2026. That's like 9 years from now on. Most of us probably won't even live to benefit from this station 9 years from now.

The pace these projects move at is literally snail pace. The same construction project could be completed in a year or two tops in China instead of 10+ years.

 

[Tuck]

Sometimes I wonder what's the point of debating on something that won't operate until freaking 2026. That's like 9 years from now on. Most of us probably won't even live to benefit from this station 9 years from now.

I don't know what the average age of Urban Toronto users is, but I certainly hope thats not true...!

The pace these projects move at is literally snail pace. The same construction project could be completed in a year or two tops in China instead of 10+ years.

Combination of long drawn out democratic processes and stringent construction and safety standards.

I could do without the former, but the latter is pretty important.

 

[Hopkins123]

Sometimes I wonder what's the point of debating on something that won't operate until freaking 2026. That's like 9 years from now on. Most of us probably won't even live to benefit from this station 9 years from now.

The pace these projects move at is literally snail pace. The same construction project could be completed in a year or two tops in China instead of 10+ years.

Well, it only took them about nine years to build TYSSE, so I guess that time range is about TTC standard from the EA stage to completion.

It doesn't matter to me when it finishes, I just want to see it actually begin, as in a tunnel is being dug, before a change of governments' threaten to prolong things even further.

 

[44 North]

The pace these projects move at is literally snail pace. The same construction project could be completed in a year or two tops in China instead of 10+ years.

It can be explained to me a thousand times - with me agreeing and understanding perfectly with the explanation - but it still doesn't make sense. Ten years for a project to go from start to finish? C'mon. Seems like a new thing cuz surely it didn't used to be like that. Single station Downsview extension was done fairly quick (not to mention extremely affordably by today's standards). Yet now it's a geological timescale wait.

Whether it's 100m or 10km, a new line or an extension, approx 10yrs seems like the standard these days. And seemingly this goes for lowly in-median ROW LRT lines as well. Hurontario should've been done ages ago. Sure it's long, but it seems pretty darn straightforward. Yet a shovel has yet to hit the ground.

 

[Hopkins123]

$2 billion to refurbish an existing line? The last estimate was $360 million, which I'm sure has inflated in 10 years since then, but not by a factor of 6.

Even if it costs the same price, you end up with more kilometers of rapid transit than the status quo, and with reduced operating costs.

Just imagine it:

But it's grade-separated. They could use ATO, just like the SRT is capable of doing, and the thing could operate itself. That's a huge improvement over the operational issues caused by all the traffic lights, pedestrians/cars going across the tracks, collisions, etc. that occur with at-grade transit.

So we could've have had a de facto brand new 'subway' line from Etobicoke to deep Scarborough, for just a billion dollars extra that a vote-seeking Liberal government would have most likely acquiesced to but instead are stuck with this mess. Thanks a whole bunch Mrs. Stintz.

 

[Hopkins123]

It can be explained to me a thousand times - with me agreeing and understanding perfectly with the explanation - but it still doesn't make sense. Ten years for a project to go from start to finish? C'mon. Seems like a new thing cuz surely it didn't used to be like that. Single station Downsview extension was done fairly quick (not to mention extremely affordably by today's standards). Yet now it's a geological timescale wait.

Whether it's 100m or 10km, a new line or an extension, approx 10yrs seems like the standard these days. And seemingly this goes for lowly in-median ROW LRT lines as well. Hurontario should've been done ages ago. Sure it's long, but it seems pretty darn straightforward. Yet a shovel has yet to hit the ground.

Seems like only an international sporting event like the 2010 Vancouver Olympics can trigger an expedited push to complete subway lines on-time and below budget.

Or like Toronto's 2015 Pan Am Games... oh wait!

 

[nfitz]

The same construction project could be completed in a year or two tops in China instead of 10+ years.

Somewhat an exaggeration - but how is comparing to a backwards undemocratic corrupt dictatorship have any relevance?

And even Chinese cities have a Scarborough, where perhaps they should have stopped to think twice: