Debate on the merits of the Scarborough Subway Extension

[rbt]

Because ST can’t provide trains frequent enough to serve STC, according to City Planning.

Well, ST at current investment levels intermixed with express trains to 905 cannot.

If all trains were turned into all-stop trains OR if Metrolinx was given an additional $4B for that corridor (above/beyond current funding) the answer may be different.

CP says you cannot have everything Metrolinx intends to do and put $4B into taxpayer pockets (build nothing beyond current Metrolinx/ST commitments) and serve STC. That's not wrong but I wish staff were given more latitude to solve problems creatively.

 

[Towered]

John Tory is delusional - he actually thinks that the costs for this extension will come in CHEAPER than estimated so far. LOL

2018 will bring us a late Christmas gift when council cancels this insane waste of money and goes back to the sensible, FULLY FUNDED LRT.

 

[Streety McCarface]

John Tory is delusional - he actually thinks that the costs for this extension will come in CHEAPER than estimated so far. LOL

2018 will bring us a late Christmas gift when council cancels this insane waste of money and goes back to the sensible, FULLY FUNDED LRT.

Remember the provincial election...

 

[syn]

1. Which is why they can't build this as a deep bore if they're going to build it at all. Cut and cover should work just fine or use the existing RT corridor to Ellesmere then tunnel or elevate to the STC and up to Sheppard (though McCowan is better for a subway/elevated), and would decrease the cost significantly. An LRT would still require redoing underground utility lines and would be as disruptive as a cut&cover underground subway (Case and Point: Waterloo Region).

I don't agree - an LRT would not only not be as disruptive, it would be finished a lot sooner.

From what I recall, there are certain challenges in Scarborough that demand deep boring.

2. There are other factors to consider with productivity aside. These include wasted electricity as a result of dwell time at Kennedy Station (From both the LRT and the subway), the wear and tear on the extra switches that need replacing, the cost of maintenance on an aboveground line, new rolling stock that isn't compatible with the existing subway system, etc. We also need to consider increases in the wages that will ensue over the next 30 years. If they continue at the existing level, then the subway would be justified within 20 years. Also, it wouldn't take 60 years worth of justification. Remember that the LRT has capital costs too. Does the Subway make more sense than the LRT from a fiscal standpoint? Only knowing these factors, it's too difficult to tell, because they are subject to change in the future. Eglinton East should definitely be an LRT, but it needs fewer stops and better transfers to local buses for it to work. Also, no one is not arguing for the need of a DRL, that really should have shovels in the ground before the SSE, but one must note that with the LRT and transferring at Eglinton Station, you'd need to have the DRL to go up to Eglinton for it to have any meaningful effect on getting people off the Yonge Line.

This all applies to operational costs as well - subways also require maintenance and upkeep. That isn't unique to LRTs.

Besides, why isn't this reasoning being applied everywhere? What's the cost of transferring from the Spadina Line to the Spadina Streetcar? Why aren't we building a King Subway as it clearly has the ridership to justify it, and would likely be a huge boon to productivity?

Does an LRT make more sense than a subway from a fiscal standpoint? Yes. This is unquestionable. Scarborough doesn't have the ridership to justify a subway. The current RT doesn't even have the ridership of the Spadina Streetcar, despite being a lot faster.

3. 90% of current trips along the RT corridor ARE going down the Bloor Danforth Line, so that accounts for about 20 thousand people right there, and about 40 thousand trips. Ridership is also expected to double-triple with an extension to Sheppard (Depending on the progress of electric/driverless cars (which will never work out because of their batteries and space in this city), so that comes to about 80K-120K trips. With time, people will need to choose to use the transit in the future, especially if they're going downtown or otherwise.
With a 3 stop Scarborough Heavy rail line, you have the mobility hubs, making travel through Scarborough easier (LRT won't make anyone's life better unless you live next to a stop, and knowing that Scarborough is just a suburban metropolis, a lot of walking will ensue. I've done the statistics, walkability has no effect on transit usage in suburban areas. It does in urban areas. Transferability has huge effects on ridership in suburban areas, and if you don't have that with the LRT (which is what they are currently proposing), then the project is doomed to fail.

They aren't building a 3-stop subway extension. That ship sailed a long, long time ago. We're currently at nearly $4 billion for one stop, 6km from Kennedy.

Your reasoning ignores the main problem - subways weren't designed for suburban transit. Scarborough lacks the density and ridership to justify this project - even in 2031, the numbers will be well below what's necessary. As we've seen on the Sheppard Line, building subways doesn't mean density and ridership will magically appear.

Nearly half of all transit trips beginning in Scarborough end in Scarborough - this subway extension does nothing to address that. An LRT network would be better for in-Scarborough transit while providing a direct, transfer free connection to the Yonge Line. It's a win-win.[/QUOTE]

 

[Streety McCarface]

I don't agree - an LRT would not only not be as disruptive, it would be finished a lot sooner.

From what I recall, there are certain challenges in Scarborough that demand deep boring.




This all applies to operational costs as well - subways also require maintenance and upkeep. That isn't unique to LRTs.

Besides, why isn't this reasoning being applied everywhere? What's the cost of transferring from the Spadina Line to the Spadina Streetcar? Why aren't we building a King Subway as it clearly has the ridership to justify it, and would likely be a huge boon to productivity?

Does an LRT make more sense than a subway from a fiscal standpoint? Yes. This is unquestionable. Scarborough doesn't have the ridership to justify a subway. The current RT doesn't even have the ridership of the Spadina Streetcar, despite being a lot faster.



They aren't building a 3-stop subway extension. That ship sailed a long, long time ago. We're currently at nearly $4 billion for one stop, 6km from Kennedy.

Your reasoning ignores the main problem - subways weren't designed for suburban transit. Scarborough lacks the density and ridership to justify this project - even in 2031, the numbers will be well below what's necessary. As we've seen on the Sheppard Line, building subways doesn't mean density and ridership will magically appear.

Nearly half of all transit trips beginning in Scarborough end in Scarborough - this subway extension does nothing to address that. An LRT network would be better for in-Scarborough transit while providing a direct, transfer free connection to the Yonge Line. It's a win-win.

[/QUOTE]

From what I recall, just residents that don't want noise and vibration. There was the whole expropriation debacle.

I was referring to the fact that there would be unnecessary station upkeep required with the LRT. I'd be inclined to support the current LRT plan along the RT corridor more if there were fewer stops (ie Ellesmere).

With regards to the King/Queen streetcar thing - Downtown Relief Line. The Pilot is the stopgap until construction commences and completes. This was the same for the Scarborough RT, ridership was built. Time to make an upgrade. Also, with regards to the spadina streetcar, University is around 200 meters from Spadina; duplicating service makes no sense (Though, they probably should have built the subway on Spadina initially).

Look no further than half the Bloor Danforth Line. It was built with the future in mind. Ridership stayed around 300,000 ppd for a long time, only recently has it grown to 520,000 ppd. Not planning for the future is what got Toronto in the transit mess we are in now. Also, updated cost-benefit studies haven't been published, but I support those studies entirely.

And I don't support that 1 stop subway at all.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I still am not convinced how replacing the 6-station RT and by-passing four of those stations with a subway is a good idea? How are the people near Lawrence East, Ellesmere and Midland RT stations better served if the subway goes straight past them?

I can only hope there is a long term plan to add back 2-3 of those RT stations once funding is available, with a final loop created with the Sheppard line in the 2030s. Otherwise, I'll never understand why we couldn't simply replace the RT vehicles with the same or modified version of the Eglinton Crosstown vehicles, and run them on the existing RT infrastructure, modified where necessary.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Besides, why isn't this reasoning being applied everywhere? What's the cost of transferring from the Spadina Line to the Spadina Streetcar? Why aren't we building a King Subway as it clearly has the ridership to justify it, and would likely be a huge boon to productivity?

Or what's the cost of transferring from the Scarborough Centre subway stop to the bus terminal, and how does that compare the the LRT?

There was once a time where the Spadina Line to 510 Spadina Streetcar was arguably the worst transfer in the system, but with the TYSSE that's no longer the case. The TYSSE stations have enormous vertical elevations that passengers need to navigate to get to surface level buses. I timed the transfer at Steeles West Station, and it took me over two minutes to walk from the bus terminal to the subway platform. And now consider that Scarborough Centre station will be deeper than Steeles West Station, and that the horizontal walking distance from the bus terminal to the station box will also be greater than at Steeles West. Passengers could be facing a 2.5 min to 3 min walk between the subway and bus at Scarborough Centre. The proposed STC station design is stupid, and will certainly be worse than even the existing Line 2 to SRT transfer at Kennedy.

Likewise, what is the cost of walking from the subway platform to the town centre, and how does that compare to the LRT?

Now I'm not saying the transfer at STC Station will be slower than the total transfer time for the LRT, BUT the stupid design of STC station will eliminate a lot of the supposed time savings that the elimination of the transfer at Kennedy was supposed to provide in the first place. With the transfer from subway to LRT taking about 0.5 mins, the wait time for the LRT being about 2.5 to 3 mins, and the transfer from LRT to bus taking another 0.5 mins, the total time spent transferring on the LRT would've been about 3.5 to 5 mins (I'm adding an extra minute to the upper bounds to be conservative). With the transfer from subway to bus at Scarborough Centre taking 2.5 to 3 mins, most of the supposed time benefits from eliminating the transfer have been erased.

 

[ssiguy2]

Why not just change the route of ST and instead of having it go further north just have all the trains take the current GO corridor and then veer off to STC? Tory as already changed the route in the West by not going down Eglinton and the money saved could take the line to Malvern. It would be an easy sell in Scar because the people in Malvern would get far superior and rapid transit and STC would have a direct line to downtown much faster than taking the Bloor line.

ST in any other city on the planet would just be called a subway so brand it as such and he would get a ton of votes from Scar. I think people in the city are over estimating the popularity of a one-stop extension in Scar itself. They know that it will serve far fewer people and do nothing for their commutes. ST/RER will eventually be running every 5 minutes as the system becomes more popular and will be completely grade separated so it is a full subway/Metro in every sense of the word. The people in Scar would be getting their subway but a far bigger one at no extra cost. Also by using the current corridor of GO there would be no disruption in service while they dismantle the RT. It would be a far superior choice to this stupid extension and an unneccesary LRT.

 

[Streety McCarface]

ST in any other city on the planet would just be called a subway so brand it as such and he would get a ton of votes from Scar. I think people in the city are over estimating the popularity of a one-stop extension in Scar itself. They know that it will serve far fewer people and do nothing for their commutes. ST/RER will eventually be running every 5 minutes as the system becomes more popular and will be completely grade separated so it is a full subway/Metro in every sense of the word. The people in Scar would be getting their subway but a far bigger one at no extra cost. Also by using the current corridor of GO there would be no disruption in service while they dismantle the RT. It would be a far superior choice to this stupid extension and an unneccesary LRT.

Smarttrack is actually more like the London Overground, the Berlin/Wien Stadtbahn, The Yamanote Line in Tokyo, or probably the best representation: SEPTA regional rail. They are not subways, they are regional rail systems. 10-15 minute frequency making fewer stops than a subway.

 

[OneCity]

John Tory is delusional - he actually thinks that the costs for this extension will come in CHEAPER than estimated so far. LOL

2018 will bring us a late Christmas gift when council cancels this insane waste of money and goes back to the sensible, FULLY FUNDED LRT.

All projects go over budget, so ill give you that fact this likely will. The only true delusional statement here is that you believe Scarborough will support the old transfer plan. That's so very far from reality and exists in the hearts of a few outsiders.

Support is as follows:

• 90% of Scarborough councilors
• 100% local MPP's
• 100% relevant Provincial party leaders
• Federal government

NO one is cancelling the SSE. The Provincial Conservatives are ready offering to take the line off the City so this delusional narrative that a subway to Scarborough Centre is not happening will come to an end. There's likely even more support now that Vaughan Centre now has a subway stop built. Transfer City is beyond dead aside from the mind of a few transit rich Downtown Councilors, the aligned Left media, and those that take them seriously.

If by chance the one stop concept was a ploy to try to cancel the line for LRT at election time it might backfire big time. This type of democratic support is dangerous to try to dictate too. If people were in denial as to the problem this City faces with Political apathy in the suburbs, they soon could be more aware. There's a far better chance the 3 stop subway is revived under a Ford Mayoralty then the transfer LRT plan under anyone. Torys Smarttrack has removed the RT corridor option for the subway and given the opportunity to remove the Lawrence stop as was done, but I also believe he intends to move forward at all cost and has already been in negotiation with the Province on both sides to do so. Tory has brought forward a good overall integrated plan and if the Province uploads the subway the City can fund the Eglinton East LRT and we all move forward.

 

[lead82]

I agree. I think Tory’s plan while not ideal is the best given today’s politics. I would make the following changes:
-Remove Lawrence ST/GO RER stop and add Lawrence E at McCowan subway stop.
-Extend the line up to Shepard so that it can connect with LRT/BRT or subway that will eventually get built up there.

These changes will:
-improve commute time on GO/ST which are more regional riders heading downtown.
-Add local accessibility in Scarborough at Lawrence
-Extension to Sheppard will improve network connectivity with the planned Metrolinx plan and shortens commute for Malvern residents.

Essentially I think the best plan for Scarborough right now would be the Ford planned BD subway to Sheppard and the Eglinton LRT. Yes it will cost $5B but it will make the BD extension more useful than a 1 stop planned now. It will also appease the unfairness politics of Scarborough.

Return to LRT on RT ROW is dead. It wasn’t a great plan to begin with as the RT route is badly placed today which is why it has been a failure at attracting development and ridership.

 

[lead82]

This is all kinds of wrong. If there's one group of people that doesn't benefit from Go RER, it's the ones who do work in the financial district. Go Transit is already awesome for them, and adding more stations is gonna slow down their commutes. The people who benefit from RER are the ones who commute out of the city and into the suburbs.

I disagree. GO RER is meant to improve the suburban to downtown commute. It adds extra frequency of trains so people don’t have to follow a schedule and provides flexibility for people who may have to leave early/late for personal reasons. This will attract people who currently drive downtown. The extra stops are mostly in the 905. So it may slow the commute but electric trains will be able to accelerate faster to compensate. Also it adds more accessibility of GO. The stations in Toronto will allow for near express service to Union which will help a lot of people who are now far from subway. I know many people who use UPX to commute to Union because it’s way faster and runs frequently. This is what GO RER will be like.

While I’m theory it may help reverse commuters, this will not happen in a long time (if ever) because there is nothing at most suburban GO stations except parking. If I live downtown and work in 905, how would GO RER help me? There aren’t any planned local bus service improvements to connect with extra trains. In fact, Metrolinx continues to build more and more parking. Unless there is a destination in 905 near a GO stop (like the airport or a university campus like at Unionville, this won’t attract many riders. Even today the LW and LE lines are empty in the reverse direction during the day. Trains run fairly frequently but there is not much nearby and terrible local transit options to take you from the station to final destination - the last mile problem.

 

[Rainforest]

It already costs more than that.

https://www.thestar.com/news/city_h...-already-gone-over-its-available-funding.html

"A new report released by city staff Tuesday said the one-stop extension of the Bloor-Danforth subway to the Scarborough Town Centre is now estimated to cost $3.35 billion.

But that figure does not include nearly $600 million in additional costs that are detailed in the report but left out of that total."

In reality, we're already at nearly $4 billion - this doesn't include the cost of financing and other costs not detailed.

There's a reason they don't want to update anyone before the next municipal election - everyone can campaign on the issue, and then whomever wins can backtrack early in their mandate as the cost goes beyond the already-unjustifiable number they're at now.



So from a productivity standpoint, it will take about 60 years for this extension to be worth it...that's assuming the price doesn't go up from the nearly $4 billion it's at now (which it likely will). Meanwhile we have a project like the DRL, which should've been built decades ago, likely causing a far greater loss in productivity right now. If you're talking about transit that benefits productivity, then there are a lot of projects that make much more sense than the SSE.

As you pointed out, none of this would matter if one took the Crosstown. Since we know that 77% of all transit trips originating in Scarborough aren't going downtown, why not invest that money in a terrific LRT network which will serve the residents of Scarborough and provide a transfer free connection to the Yonge Line?

The project is still within the funding envelope. No reason to panic:

1) The same article states that consultants found up to $283 million in the possible savings.

2) Out of the new costs, 1/3 are either out-of-scope or optional:

- $11 million for wider sidewalks and street furniture: irrelevant for the subway and must not be included in the project
- $14 million for the platform edge doors: optional, as the rest of TTC subway stations have no such doors, nor will the ECLRT stations
- $200 million reserve for "scope changes": no scope changes must be allowed unless the council explicitly approves them with additional funding
- $305 million for contingency fund: required
- $40 million for construction financing: probably required
- $15 million for advisory fees: required

Actual new costs: $360 million (last three lines combined). Less the possible savings: 360 - 283 = $77 million.

New total cost estimate: $3.350 billion + $77 million = $3.427 billion. Still within the funding envelope.

 

[Rainforest]

Why not just change the route of ST and instead of having it go further north just have all the trains take the current GO corridor and then veer off to STC? Tory as already changed the route in the West by not going down Eglinton and the money saved could take the line to Malvern. It would be an easy sell in Scar because the people in Malvern would get far superior and rapid transit and STC would have a direct line to downtown much faster than taking the Bloor line.

ST in any other city on the planet would just be called a subway so brand it as such and he would get a ton of votes from Scar. I think people in the city are over estimating the popularity of a one-stop extension in Scar itself. They know that it will serve far fewer people and do nothing for their commutes. ST/RER will eventually be running every 5 minutes as the system becomes more popular and will be completely grade separated so it is a full subway/Metro in every sense of the word. The people in Scar would be getting their subway but a far bigger one at no extra cost. Also by using the current corridor of GO there would be no disruption in service while they dismantle the RT. It would be a far superior choice to this stupid extension and an unneccesary LRT.

I think the main obstacle for using ST to connect to Scarborough Centre is that it requires too much mental efforts on the part of the Mayor, Councillors, and the TTC executives. They are all used to upgrading buses to city rail, or one type of city rail to another type. They never heard of replacing city rail with mainline rail.

There may be legitimate technical concerns, too: the turning radius at Ellesmere / Midland, and the required width and strength of the guideway to support the mainline trains that are much larger and heavier than any type of ICTS Mk trains. However, since no technical analysis was attempted, we won't know if the task is doable.

Because ST can’t provide trains frequent enough to serve STC, according to City Planning.

While it's true that the designed frequency of ST isn't high enough to serve all demand from STC towards Kennedy Stn, potentially that could be mitigated by running additional "shuttles" between STC and Kennedy only, on the same line. I believe, gweed123 posted such a plan a few months (or perhaps years?) ago.

For example, longer ST trains (2,000 capacity per train) could depart from STC four times per hour (00, 15, 30, 45 min) and go all the way to Union. Shorter shuttles (1,000 per train) could depart eight times per hour (05, 10, 20, 25 min etc to fill the gaps) and go to Kennedy Stn only. That would kind of suit every group of riders. Those heading downtown would get a much faster and more direct connection to Union (even better than what they are getting with the Line 2 extension). Those who go elsewhere would have to transfer at Kennedy, but would get much more available capacity than on today's overloaded Mk-I's. In addition, the line could be extended north-east from STC.

 

[ssiguy2]

Metrolinx managed to elevate the entire Pearson section of the UPX so I don't see the problem here. The ST proposal is a subway/Metro and it's ridership will increase exponentially especially with TTC fares requiring far higher frequencies. Remember when ML says RER will run each way/all day every 15 minutes or better that 15 means Sunday nights but daytime frequencies will have to be much higher.

As I said, many cities have suburban/RER/S0-Bahn type rail systems that carry more passengers than their standard Metro system does especially cities with relatively new systems where the new metros are simply building upon the current infrastructure like RER is doing. This will be the case for Toronto as well in less than 40 years.