Debate on the merits of the Scarborough Subway Extension

[Streety McCarface]

Why does everyone believe all commuters want to only go downtown?

Because there is a premise that jobs and places of play are in locations where there are large numbers of people confined to small, dense areas. This statement isn't, however, it overshadows the true spread of jobs in Toronto. It's much easier to build one subway line that takes 30% of the population to Downtown than build 4-5 LRT lines that take people only throughout Scarborough. The 3 stop subway made sense because it had a fair number of stations for a suburban area, with all of those stations serving as mobility hubs. With this, you could connect to downtown VIA the Bloor Danforth Line, Midtown via the Eglinton Crosstown Light Rail Subway, and Uptown via the Sheppard LRT/Subway (Unknown). It would also serve local travel because it would facilitate ease of transfers at these subway stations, similar to the rest of the subway system. This is why this plan was the best option at the time; it didn't just serve downtown commuters or limited Scarborough commuters (as well as the fact that the existing RT corridor is useless to almost everyone).

For instance, if I lived along Middlefield took a hypothetical version of the 130 to a future Sheppard East station, I would be able to wait in a sheltered station for the 169 if I needed to go down hunting wood, or another bus if I needed to go to another location within the north of Scarborough. If I needed to go to the south end of Scarborough, I'd take the subway south and potentially use local buses at Lawrence West or Kennedy. If I needed to travel out of Scarborough, I could take the Sheppard RT to uptown Toronto if necessary, head south on the subway to Kennedy & Easily transfer to The Crosstown if I needed to go to Midtown, or stay on the subway if I needed to go Downtown. Also, notice how there is a huge grid system within the Scarborough bus network. If there was a rapid transit backbone with station mobility hubs along the middle of Scarborough, then the possibilities for many more local, station-feeder routes would become possible. It would be like a second Yonge subway, but in Scarborough, and could potentially build ridership for a future Sheppard line (which would make connections to grid routes extremely easy, kind of like the current Bloor Danforth Line through downtown Toronto). As I proved before, station ridership will only increase if there are connecting bus routes. The LRT on the existing RT corridor is doomed to fail because there are terrible connections to other forms of transit. The Eglinton East LRT is a great idea because the corridor is high capacity and in areas worthy of redevelopment. McCowan Road is good for a future subway because the blocks surrounding previously proposed subway stops are excellent candidates for densification, while still being able to support station ridership through feeder transit.

In summary, the Yonge Line wasn't full the day it opened. No subway route in all of Toronto was ever like this, even the Bloor line. It took decades for ridership to achieve a level in which the system was at capacity. Heck, you stand on a Bloor train heading to BY station like a sardine only to find that the line is not near capacity. I by no means am trying to argue that we should ignore the greatest transit needs in the city right now; The DRL needs to be built as a subway from Dundas West to Don Mills and Sheppard, no exceptions. However, we shouldn't be holding back transit expansion in other areas of the city either, because they will either inhibit development or will lead to overcapacity routes within a few decades, and we don't want the future generations to be in the same crisis we are in currently. I'd rather see and pay for a transit system that isn't completely utilized knowing space is future proofed than have this same argument in 20-30 years from now, where completely new infrastructure must be laid to fix the mistakes of the past.

 

[OneCity]

Why does everyone believe all commuters want to only go downtown?

Why should Scarborough residents have to choose between improved local transit and improve connectivity to the Core? We needed a more detailed plan from the get go. The subway is just the starting point from a bigger mistake in the past, local transit can always be improved much easier in the future. There were cheaper ways to connect the Centre but the politics to push a transfer plan by the outside Opposition (most who reside near subway ridings) was and still is too strong to work on a detailed solution

Besides the idea of a separate line from Scarborough to downtown, the other option for SSE is the station at Lawrence.

First council would have to re-vote for this stop to be studied at 30% design. Best case now is the Province takes the subway out of the City's hands and provides a better legacy without having to deal with any local opposition. And basically there is zero opposition Provincially to make change and fix the subway

 

[TheTigerMaster]

If you’re trying to dramatically improve travel times to Downtown Toronto, the one stop SSE won’t do it. If you look at the analysis, it’ll hardly improve downtown-bound travel times. Look elsewhere if that’s your goal.

 

[OneCity]

If you’re trying to dramatically improve travel times to Downtown Toronto, the one stop SSE won’t do it. If you look at the analysis, it’ll hardly improve downtown-bound travel times. Look elsewhere if that’s your goal.

Connecting the Centre via subway is far more than just improving travel time. The subway saves the inconvenience of a transfer, It provides a seamless connection of Scarborough Centre which provides the best economic opportunity and attractiveness in the future, it allows for the Sheppard loop to be completed, it also provides equity to what is being built to lesser and equal Centers. All very important to Scarborough residents.

I think youll see at election time many Scarborough residents don't like the single stop version of the subway. The Lawrence hospital stop is important and the only candidate who will gain here is Ford.

 

[Streety McCarface]

If you’re trying to dramatically improve travel times to Downtown Toronto, the one stop SSE won’t do it. If you look at the analysis, it’ll hardly improve downtown-bound travel times. Look elsewhere if that’s your goal.

Looking at just the ridership for the Lawrence East station, about 8,000 people use that station daily (4000 entrances, 4000 exits) and a stop along McCowan would likely increase that ridership to about 10-15K per day over a bit of time. Assuming it takes an extra 10 minutes to travel to Kennedy or Scarborough Centre station from Lawrence (since all the users of Lawrence East station are bus riders), about 400,000 hours of lost productivity will result annually. If we assume minimum wage, that's 6,000,000 dollars lost annually. Over 30 years, that's 180,000,000 dollars in lost productivity. If we assume a more logical wage (30$), we get 360,000,000$ lost over 30 years (and subways generally last much longer than that). If we assume that the Lawrence East bus' ridership increases with the introduction of the subway (let's say 15,000 ppd, since the Since Sheppard ridership doubled with the introduction of the subway), we find that there would be about 500,000,000$ in lost productivity if we assumed minimum wage, a billion dollars for standard wage over 30 years. Making the investment for a station makes sense, and it will also provide ease of connections to other bus routes in Scarborough.

 

[Streety McCarface]

Connecting the Centre is far more than just improving travel time. The subway does save the inconvenience of a transfer, It does provide a seamless connection of Scarborough Centre which provide the best economic opportunity and attractiveness in the future, it does allow for the Sheppard loop to be completed, it also provides equity to what is being built to lesser and equal Centers. All very important to Scarborough residents.

I think youll see at election time many Scarborough residents don't like the single stop. The candidate who will gain the most here is Ford.

Ford is an idiot, someone needs to give scarborough the ultimatum for elevated or a cut&cover subway.

The transfer actually has a lot of validity in terms of argument. If just 40,000 people use the Scarborough LRT daily that have to transfer to the BD line, assuming a 10-minute transfer (Subway slowdown at Kennedy Station, walk up the flight of stairs, waiting for a train to arrive, then being able to fit onto that train), 400,000 minutes are lost in potential productivity, equating to 2M hours in lost productivity annually (assuming only business days). In summary, about 1.8 Billion dollars are lost over 30 years due to the transfer, and this isn't even factoring in redundant stops like Midland and Ellesmere, as well as breakdowns. Of course, if you were to take the crosstown, all this wouldn't matter.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

If the final estimated costs in the EA are less than $3.56 Billion, then they should go ahead with the one-stop extension as planned. Any more changes to the plan will result in another five years of delay; a lot of us will be dead before this thing is ready.

If it costs more than $3.56 Billion, then back to the drawing board I guess.

 

[Streety McCarface]

If the final estimated costs in the EA are less than $3.56 Billion, then they should go ahead with the one-stop extension as planned. Any more changes to the plan will result in another five years of delay; a lot of us will be dead before this thing is ready.

If it costs more than $3.56 Billion, then back to the drawing board I guess.

Based on the fact that revitalization of an elevated line in Chicago cost around 2 billion dollars US, I can understand why the LRT cost can balloon as well. It doesn't hurt studying both options to see which one is more cost effective, however, I would argue that it makes no sense to continue building transit on that corridor, especially local transit.

 

[OneCity]

Ford is an idiot, someone needs to give scarborough the ultimatum for elevated or a cut&cover subway.

The transfer actually has a lot of validity in terms of argument. If just 40,000 people use the Scarborough LRT daily that have to transfer to the BD line, assuming a 10-minute transfer (Subway slowdown at Kennedy Station, walk up the flight of stairs, waiting for a train to arrive, then being able to fit onto that train), 400,000 minutes are lost in potential productivity, equating to 2M hours in lost productivity annually (assuming only business days). In summary, about 1.8 Billion dollars are lost over 30 years due to the transfer, and this isn't even factoring in redundant stops like Midland and Ellesmere, as well as breakdowns. Of course, if you were to take the crosstown, all this wouldn't matter.

Not only will the removal of the transfer benefit commuters it benefits the opportunity for growth of the City Centre. The RT was a flop for many reasons in addition to the transfer and we have built seamless connection to Centres now in North York and Vaughan which would handicap Scarborough Centre further in the future.

Ford may be an idiot, but you cant hide the optics of what was built elsewhere. And that includes the Centres and Sheppard stub. To do so and expect residents of 25% of the Citys population not to care about what exits and the unnecessary transfer points that were not built in equal or lesser areas is even more idiotic. Ford just stated the obvious, Scarborough doesn't decide on the engineering details. Given the deep bore it would surely have been elevated if Smarttrack was interfering with the RT corridor. And if you believe the report the elevated line had minimal savings. If we add the Lawrence stop the McCowan corridor is much more effective and at this stage its better to add it and move forward.

If the final estimated costs in the EA are less than $3.56 Billion, then they should go ahead with the one-stop extension as planned. Any more changes to the plan will result in another five years of delay; a lot of us will be dead before this thing is ready.

If it costs more than $3.56 Billion, then back to the drawing board I guess.

The elections should help clear up the funding gaps. The Cons already have taken this out of the City, well see what the Liberal counter with. Not sure the City will be even budgeting for this line going forward.

 

[syn]

If the final estimated costs in the EA are less than $3.56 Billion, then they should go ahead with the one-stop extension as planned. Any more changes to the plan will result in another five years of delay; a lot of us will be dead before this thing is ready.

If it costs more than $3.56 Billion, then back to the drawing board I guess.

It already costs more than that.

https://www.thestar.com/news/city_h...-already-gone-over-its-available-funding.html

"A new report released by city staff Tuesday said the one-stop extension of the Bloor-Danforth subway to the Scarborough Town Centre is now estimated to cost $3.35 billion.

But that figure does not include nearly $600 million in additional costs that are detailed in the report but left out of that total."

In reality, we're already at nearly $4 billion - this doesn't include the cost of financing and other costs not detailed.

There's a reason they don't want to update anyone before the next municipal election - everyone can campaign on the issue, and then whomever wins can backtrack early in their mandate as the cost goes beyond the already-unjustifiable number they're at now.

Ford is an idiot, someone needs to give scarborough the ultimatum for elevated or a cut&cover subway.

The transfer actually has a lot of validity in terms of argument. If just 40,000 people use the Scarborough LRT daily that have to transfer to the BD line, assuming a 10-minute transfer (Subway slowdown at Kennedy Station, walk up the flight of stairs, waiting for a train to arrive, then being able to fit onto that train), 400,000 minutes are lost in potential productivity, equating to 2M hours in lost productivity annually (assuming only business days). In summary, about 1.8 Billion dollars are lost over 30 years due to the transfer, and this isn't even factoring in redundant stops like Midland and Ellesmere, as well as breakdowns. Of course, if you were to take the crosstown, all this wouldn't matter.

So from a productivity standpoint, it will take about 60 years for this extension to be worth it...that's assuming the price doesn't go up from the nearly $4 billion it's at now (which it likely will). Meanwhile we have a project like the DRL, which should've been built decades ago, likely causing a far greater loss in productivity right now. If you're talking about transit that benefits productivity, then there are a lot of projects that make much more sense than the SSE.

As you pointed out, none of this would matter if one took the Crosstown. Since we know that 77% of all transit trips originating in Scarborough aren't going downtown, why not invest that money in a terrific LRT network which will serve the residents of Scarborough and provide a transfer free connection to the Yonge Line?

 

[ssiguy2]

I don't get it.........if Smart Track is Tory's baby why not just have ST go to STC using the current corridor and save $3 billion? They could have half the trains going north to York Region and half veering off the STC. What am I missing?

 

[Leo_Chan]

What am I missing?

I wonder too.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I don't get it.........if Smart Track is Tory's baby why not just have ST go to STC using the current corridor and save $3 billion? They could have half the trains going north to York Region and half veering off the STC. What am I missing?

Because ST can’t provide trains frequent enough to serve STC, according to City Planning.

 

[BurlOak]

I don't get it.........if Smart Track is Tory's baby why not just have ST go to STC using the current corridor and save $3 billion? They could have half the trains going north to York Region and half veering off the STC. What am I missing?

• That would give much of the credit for GO RER in Scarborough to John Tory and SmartTrack. They couldn't have that.
• The transfer LRT plan takes up just as much space in the corridor as SmartTrack would, so this is not the reason.
• And you are exaggerating, I think they would have only saved $2.5B.

 

[Streety McCarface]

It already costs more than that.

https://www.thestar.com/news/city_h...-already-gone-over-its-available-funding.html

"A new report released by city staff Tuesday said the one-stop extension of the Bloor-Danforth subway to the Scarborough Town Centre is now estimated to cost $3.35 billion.

But that figure does not include nearly $600 million in additional costs that are detailed in the report but left out of that total."

In reality, we're already at nearly $4 billion - this doesn't include the cost of financing and other costs not detailed.

There's a reason they don't want to update anyone before the next municipal election - everyone can campaign on the issue, and then whomever wins can backtrack early in their mandate as the cost goes beyond the already-unjustifiable number they're at now.



So from a productivity standpoint, it will take about 60 years for this extension to be worth it...that's assuming the price doesn't go up from the nearly $4 billion it's at now (which it likely will). Meanwhile we have a project like the DRL, which should've been built decades ago, likely causing a far greater loss in productivity right now. If you're talking about transit that benefits productivity, then there are a lot of projects that make much more sense than the SSE.

As you pointed out, none of this would matter if one took the Crosstown. Since we know that 77% of all transit trips originating in Scarborough aren't going downtown, why not invest that money in a terrific LRT network which will serve the residents of Scarborough and provide a transfer free connection to the Yonge Line?

1. Which is why they can't build this as a deep bore if they're going to build it at all. Cut and cover should work just fine or use the existing RT corridor to Ellesmere then tunnel or elevate to the STC and up to Sheppard (though McCowan is better for a subway/elevated), and would decrease the cost significantly. An LRT would still require redoing underground utility lines and would be as disruptive as a cut&cover underground subway (Case and Point: Waterloo Region).

2. There are other factors to consider with productivity aside. These include wasted electricity as a result of dwell time at Kennedy Station (From both the LRT and the subway), the wear and tear on the extra switches that need replacing, the cost of maintenance on an aboveground line, new rolling stock that isn't compatible with the existing subway system, etc. We also need to consider increases in the wages that will ensue over the next 30 years. If they continue at the existing level, then the subway would be justified within 20 years. Also, it wouldn't take 60 years worth of justification. Remember that the LRT has capital costs too. Does the Subway make more sense than the LRT from a fiscal standpoint? Only knowing these factors, it's too difficult to tell, because they are subject to change in the future. Eglinton East should definitely be an LRT, but it needs fewer stops and better transfers to local buses for it to work. Also, no one is not arguing for the need of a DRL, that really should have shovels in the ground before the SSE, but one must note that with the LRT and transferring at Eglinton Station, you'd need to have the DRL to go up to Eglinton for it to have any meaningful effect on getting people off the Yonge Line.

3. 90% of current trips along the RT corridor ARE going down the Bloor Danforth Line, so that accounts for about 20 thousand people right there, and about 40 thousand trips. Ridership is also expected to double-triple with an extension to Sheppard (Depending on the progress of electric/driverless cars (which will never work out because of their batteries and space in this city), so that comes to about 80K-120K trips. With time, people will need to choose to use the transit in the future, especially if they're going downtown or otherwise.
With a 3 stop Scarborough Heavy rail line, you have the mobility hubs, making travel through Scarborough easier (LRT won't make anyone's life better unless you live next to a stop, and knowing that Scarborough is just a suburban metropolis, a lot of walking will ensue. I've done the statistics, walkability has no effect on transit usage in suburban areas. It does in urban areas. Transferability has huge effects on ridership in suburban areas, and if you don't have that with the LRT (which is what they are currently proposing), then the project is doomed to fail.