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Exactly. I would say that if anything, reverting back to the SLRT would make the Sheppard East Subway MORE likely, not less. Conversely, staying with the Bloor-Danforth extension would make the Sheppard East Subway less likely. Going with the B-D extension would make it easier for Council to say "Scarborough is already getting it's subway, we stick with the approved plan for Sheppard".
salsa
Senior Member
If anything, the Line 2 extension has emboldened the subway nutheads to think that "since we succeeded in killing the LRT, maybe we can do it again on Sheppard". I don't think the Sheppard subway is likely to happen, however there a real chance that the Sheppard LRT will be killed and nothing gets built, which the subway nutheads would prefer.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Actually I would think that's what people who doesn't use transit would prefer. I mean, recall the "honk if you support subways" crowd - that's what it's about. You don't honk on a bus.
AoD
GenerationW
Senior Member
That somehow will never be a Scarborough-specific tax. That's fantasy land.
denfromoakvillemilton
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Oh I agree. I'm just saying that CC has to know these new subways will be paid for with new taxes.
denfromoakvillemilton
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It's a pattern of killing LRT development, witness Salsa:
Either way they killed the SRT and are trying it again. They had success the first time.
salsa
Senior Member
Obviously Norm Kelly doesn't use transit.
BurlOak
Senior Member
There is no doubt that the B-D extension switch wouldn't have happened without the subway to Vaughan. Is there any doubt that the B-D extension will not encourage the SELRT to be cancelled and switched to subway? The only question is how successful it will be.
denfromoakvillemilton
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I agree but didn't want to say anything. Why is Vaughan getting a subway (with worse ridership then either Scarborough subway)is Sobara and politics.
nfitz
Superstar
Oh, it's a new phenomenon is it?
Budget?
Oh, I expect they'll try. And they may well get the entire project cancelled, and the federal/provincial funding withdrawn (particularly as the TTC sugar daddy in the federal cabinet who funded Sheppard East LRT, Spadina subway extension and the Danforth subway extension is no longer there). Perhaps the federal money will instead go to building infrastructure in ridings that the Conservatives have more chance of winning - like in Oakville ... or Milton.
The passenger demand on the Spadina subway extension exceeds the existing Sheppard subway in the 2031 Metrolinx Big Move modelling, with a peak-point ridership of 7,200 compared to 5,900 (in 2031!) on the Sheppard subway. East of Victoria Park, the Sheppard subway ridership is forecast to be much lower than the existing Sheppard subway. Sure, the last couple of station in Vaughan are a big questionable, but it's only another 2 km of subway past York University, and Toronto isn't paying a cent. The Sheppard subway extension to Scarborough Centre is over 8 km long, with lower ridership than the Spadina extension - at least past Victoria Park (i.e. the entire length in Scarborough). And then there's the other 7 km or so to Meadowvale which the LRT is planned for ...
Bingo. From both passenger demand and budgetary constraints.
denfromoakvillemilton
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To me the hate for LRT is ridiculous, so I see it as unprecedented.[/QUOTE]
The whole thing getting canceled is more likely to happen, but tell Brad Dugid, Rob Ford and Norm Kelly that. They seem to think that Scarborough needs 2 subways and a underground LRT.
That's actually weaker then the Bloor Danforth extension. Bloor Danforth is somewhere around 8500-9500. So it really begs the question why any of these are even options. What you said about Sheppard East is correct but Spadina is not much better, if at all.
WislaHD
Superstar
Yah but Spadina has other things going for it (catching some of the ridership otherwise going to and crowding the Yonge line, and well.. politics) and Toronto didn't even pay for it past York University.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
The merit of replacing SRT is one thing, I highly doubt anyone would be inclined to give an inch this time around given a) the lack of RoFo b) provincial majority government and c) at some point bending over backwards will end up being a vote loser elsewhere in the province/GTA. And yes, Flaherty isn't around either.
AoD
nfitz
Superstar
Kelly seems to be quite well aware it would likely be cancelled, and quite comfortable with that. He's commented that it would be better if nothing was built than LRT.
Give Scarborough what they want, I say.
7,000 or so for Spadina isn't that bad. If it was 20,000, no one would be able to get on by Eglinton West! You can't have 30,000 on the last station on the line! Also, it has a huge off-peak AND counter-peak flow because of York University.
While the AM peak-hour 2031 passengers are only 7,200 compared to 5,900 on Sheppard, you can well imagine, that there are a heck of a lot more people going northbound in AM peak to York U than there is travelling westbound on the Sheppard Line to Don Mills! Also, traffic in that area is dreadful in rush-hour. I don't find Sheppard East THAT bad, once you get east of Victoria Park (and I'm quite happy extending the Sheppard subway to Victoria Park, and getting it past the bottleneck/mess at 404).