Canada's next Prime Minister?

[Solaris]

Toronto Star - Tory support stabilizes: poll

Conservatives lead Liberals by five points, rolling survey shows

Oct 09, 2008 10:40 AM
THE CANADIAN PRESS

Laureen Harper and her husband, Conservative Party Leader Stephen Harper, walk down from their campaign plane in Vancouver, Oct. 8, 2008.

OTTAWA – The Conservatives have arrested their steady slide in support in recent days, but remain locked in a narrow sprint to the finish, a new poll suggests.

The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima rolling poll gave the Conservatives the support of 32 per cent of respondents, with the Liberals five points back at 27 per cent.

The New Democrats sat at 19 per cent, the Greens at 12 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at eight.

"After several days of bad news, the Conservatives can see better news in these patterns, although the race remains much more competitive than it was two weeks ago," said Harris-Decima president Bruce Anderson.

The campaign dynamic entering the final weekend has Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion showing resurgent popularity, and Prime Minister Stephen Harper regaining support lost in recent days, Anderson said.

In Ontario, the race appeared tighter: the Liberals had 32 per cent support, down from 34 per cent earlier in the week, with the Conservatives up a point to 28 per cent.

In Quebec, the Bloc led with 36 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 29 per cent, the Tories at 22, the NDP with eight and the Greens four per cent.

The Liberals have also been making inroads among women voters, siphoning support away from both the Tories and the New Democrats, Anderson said.

Indeed, it will be worth watching over the final five days to see whether the NDP continues losing steam to the Liberals, a phenomenon that has plagued the party in past campaigns, he said.

"There are signs that support for the NDP is at heightened risk of polarization, a phenomenon that has occurred in the past, and largely to the benefit of the Liberals."

The latest results represent interviews with 1,275 Canadians conducted Sunday through Wednesday and is considered accurate to within plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

From the Post:

Government upfront about cost of Afghan war: Harper
Posted: October 09, 2008, 1:01 PM by Chris Boutet
Canadian Election, Conservatives
By Andrew Mayeda, Canwest News Service

VANCOUVER — Prime Minister Stephen Harper rejected the notion Thursday that his government misled the public and Parliament about the cost of the Afghanistan mission, arguing that Canadians knew from the start the expense would be high.

Harper was reacting to a report by Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page that estimates the mission could cost up to $18-billion by the time Canadian troops withdraw in 2011.

Page said that figure could actually be much higher, because of opaque accounting practices within the Department of National Defence and other departments.

Harper acknowledged there is some debate about what costs to include in accounting for the mission, but he denied that his government hid the costs of the war.

“The debate is not that the numbers are wrong. It’s a debate about what to include and what not to include. This is something that governments of both stripes have been supporting for a decade.â€

The prime minister also argued the government has a responsibility to spend whatever it takes to protect Canada’s troops, officials and diplomats in Afghanistan.

“I know it’s a lot of money, but nobody in Canada is going to say we’re spending too much on people who are putting their lives on the line.â€

Earlier Thursday, Harper announced a Conservative government would invest $10-million over the next two years to support the National Lung Health
Framework, a plan established in 2006 to improve lung health. The party would also provide $15-million for a four-year study of Canadians affected by Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease.

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/...-upfront-about-cost-of-afghan-war-harper.aspx

AoD

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

From the Globe:

The political cost of Afghanistan
CAMPBELL CLARK AND STEVEN CHASE

Globe and Mail Update and Canadian Press

October 9, 2008 at 1:55 PM EDT

OTTAWA — The military mission in Afghanistan and the global economic crunch are both adding up to a potentially high political cost for Stephen Harper's Conservatives just days away from the federal election.

Parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page today released a long-awaited study laying out his assessment of how much the military mission is costing taxpayers.

Ottawa has so far reported that the extra “incremental†cost for the military mission — over and above what would have been spent for the upkeep of the military anyway — was about $3.8-billion to the end of the 2007-08 fiscal year. Mr. Page says it has been somewhere between $5.85-billion and $7.45-billion.

The total price tag would be $14-billion to $18-billion by the time troops are withdrawn in 2011, about $1,500 extra for every Canadian household, Mr. Page said.

Speaking later Thursday, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper said the mission was clearly an expensive one, but the expense was necessary.

“We've been clear that the cost of this is high,†Mr. Harper said. “We are doing important work there as part of an international effort. We are certainly not alone in spending money.

“When we have men and women in uniform, diplomats and development workers who are putting their lives on the line, the government will spend what is necessary to make sure they are safe and successful.â€

But Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion told press in Halifax that the report showed there was a “false transparency†over Afghanistan.

“Stephen Harper again failed to be transparent and accountable to Canadians," Mr. Dion said in a scrum after speaking to the Halifax Chamber of Commerce.

NDP Leader Jack Layton blasted both Liberals and Conservative for the projected cost of the Afghans mission and accused both his political opponents of hiding the truth.

“The costs of the war are dramatically higher than the Harper government has been telling Canadians,†Mr. Layton said of the Conservative government during a campaign stop in Sudbury, Ont.

"The costs are billions of dollars more. And whether it was the Liberals who took us into the war, the Conservatives who extended the war with the help of the Liberals, they haven't been straight up with Canadians about the costs.â€

The NDP Leader said after a speech to about 150 supporters in a local science centre that he would not attribute motives to any attempt to downplay the costs of the Afghanistan mission.

“I just simply think it's wrong that a government would not be truthful about the costs of a war. And we're not talking about a few dollars here, we're talking about billions,†he told reporters.

“The Conservative government hasn't been truthful about the cost of the war, just like they haven't been truthful about a great many other things.â€

Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe said Mr. Harper knowingly mislead voters on the real cost of the mission, adding that it would be foolish to give the Conservatives a majority government to pursue their course of action.

Speaking at Longueuil, Mr. Duceppe said Quebeckers will be appalled to learn that so much of their hard earned tax dollars was being spent on a mission which most oppose.

“I think Quebeckers fundamentally disagree with it. What this means is that it is costing them $1,500 per household. And when you factor in the total amount projected in military spending the cost is $28,000 per taxpayer,†he added.

The report could spell trouble for Mr. Harper, who has been sliding steadily in opinion polls for the last week on the back of the global financial crisis.

That economic situation still has more in store for the Canadian economy, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty — trying to reassure voters in the face of falling stock prices and dire predictions of recession — warned Thursday.

“These are extraordinary times in global financial markets,†Mr. Flaherty told a briefing in advance of a G7 conference of international finance ministers in Washington. “While Canada is better placed than other major economies, we are not immune.â€

Mr. Harper continued to stress his faith in the national economy, saying Canada's banks are the strongest in the world and need no help from Ottawa.

A new report by the World Economic Forum gave Canada's banking system a gold star in the face of the crumbling global financial system, rating them the soundest in the world, followed by Sweden, Luxembourg and Australia.

Citing that rating, Mr. Harper ruled out any form of bailout package for Canadian banks.

Mr. Harper also expressed disappointment that banks are only reducing lending rates by a quarter of a percentage point, rather than the full half-point cut imposed by the Bank of Canada.

He says he expects the full benefits of the rate cut will eventually be passed along to Canadian consumers.

Mr. Dion, meanwhile, pledged to work closely with Canadian banks, regulatory agencies, economic experts and the Bank of Canada as part of his “action plan†for the first 30 days of a Liberal government.

But in the same breath, he attacked NDP Leader Jack Layton for proposing “re-regulation†of the Canadian banking system.

“It's not for politicians to direct the banks in Canada; Mr. Layton failed to understand that,†Mr. Dion said. “It's (also) not for ministers to be inept and unable to do anything; Mr. Flaherty failed to understand that.â€

Mr. Dion was then forced to defend his Green Shift carbon-tax proposal, which has been going over like a lead balloon in Atlantic Canada. “If I'm proposing it, it's because I'm convinced that it's good for Nova Scotia.â€

Economies around the world have been battered by the banking crisis, a crumbling housing market and a credit crunch that has dried up borrowing.

With just six days to go in the campaign, all the party leaders are choosing their daily targets carefully in an effort to wring every last vote from the electorate.

Mr. Harper was to spend Thursday campaigning in Vancouver and Winnipeg, while Mr. Dion was headed to Halifax and Laval, Que.

Mr. Layton was in northern Ontario, with Mr. Duceppe in northern Quebec and Green Leader Elizabeth May on her home turf in Nova Scotia.

With reports from Campbell Clark, Steven Chase, Rhéal Séguin, Gloria Galloway and Jane Taber
____

Ottawa has so far reported that the extra “incremental†cost for the military mission — over and above what would have been spent for the upkeep of the military anyway — was about $3.8-billion to the end of the 2007-08 fiscal year. Mr. Page says it has been somewhere between $5.85-billion and $7.45-billion

So much for "sound" fiscal management.

AoD

 

[lordmandeep]

Tory's hold however look at Southern Ontario and all signs show towards a Tory decline there, so that may be interesting.

Plus day after day is being spent on Harper, which is not good for him. He needed the next few days to be spent on Dion and the Tory's especially Mike Duffy is trying his best, but it is not working.



lol Mike Duffy of CTV really lost a ton of respect this election.


He is clearly out on a smear campaign against dion in the last few days and really he played a video and then had the NDP and Tories ready to blast the video.

To, Duffy's shock, the Tory and NDP did not and talked about election in General.


Easily the man has lost a ton of respect...


Like people admit they find his English a problem, but if a party goes publicly with that, it backfires big time...

Luckily for Harper, this was not done by a Tory person, but by the media. It would have swayed a lot of votes in Quebec and Ontario.

 

[afransen]

Harper delayed his campaign to comment on the video. There's already media out criticizing Harper for attacking, of all things, Dion's response to a poorly posed question.

 

[CDL.TO]

I think the Tories hyping up this video of Dion was a bad strategy move on their part and will reflect poorly on them. If they had just left it alone, I have no doubt that the video would have worked its way into the media in a day or two and hurt Dion. But by choosing to pull a group of media into a room in order to declare "look at this!" it makes them look desperate.

This move reminds me of the arts funding cuts... with the Conservatives forgetting that a lot of the voters that they are trying to sway don't have the same view on a certain issue. For example, how will it play in Quebec? The francophone media will obviously not be playing the clip, so what will the story be about instead? I'm guessing it will be about the Conservatives' hyping the fact that Dion doesn't have a perfect grasp on English.

I don't know if others have noticed it, but in my observations there has been a shift in attitudes toward French in Canada (at least in Ontario). People don't seem to mind like they once did. Perhaps this is part of Canada's increasingly multicultural nature... if having frequent interactions with immigrants that have a less than perfect grasp of English isn't a big deal, then we're certainly not going to be bothered by the less-than-perfect English of someone who was born and raised in Canada and who speaks a Canadian language. Perhaps the nature of 24-hour news has affected us as well... politically astute Canadians are used to hearing the voice of the translator which is a guaranteed part of any serious political speech. People just don't seem to mind: French is Canadian and French poses no threat to English. The worst argument against it these days is that it's costly and perhaps applied too broadly. It's hard to believe today that only 20 years ago an "Alliance for the Preservation of English in Canada" was an influential and serious political group.

 

[CDL.TO]

Even the Post is questioning the wisdom of the Tories' tactic...

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2008/10/09/don-martin-a-dion-gaffe-that-shows-the-harper-mean-streak.aspx

Excerpt:

Giddy Conservatives delayed their campaign jet’s departure from Winnipeg, declared the encounter worthy of a Saturday Night Live skit without having seen it and hauled out a television so a cluster of reporters could view the puzzled expression on Mr. Dion’s face as he tried to fathom the question.

Aside from the questionable ethics of CTV airing a segment when both Mr. Dion and interviewer Steve Murphy twice agreed to restart the interview to clarify the question, this is a damning insight into how desperate the Conservatives have become in their battle to belittle a Liberal leader they never dreamed could pose a threat to their government.

 

[JasonParis]

He is clearly out on a smear campaign against dion in the last few days and really he played a video and then had the NDP and Tories ready to blast the video.

Mike Duffy is probably the most blatantly unbiased (TV) journalist in Canada and has been for as long as I can remember.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Darkstar:

You meant blatantly biased journalist right?

I am seriously considering cancelling my Globe subscription after last night's nonsense. I can think of better ways to spend (or save) the $30/month in the current economic climate.

AoD

 

[Ahab]

Cancelling the Globe will also save our forests and will be good for our environment! I say go for it!

 

[JasonParis]

Yup, I meant biased. Haha.

 

[ShonTron]

I remember the old days of BBS (Basset's Bull Sh*t) CFTO when there would be a mid-show national update with Tom Clark and Mike Duffy on the 6PM news blasting the Liberals for about 10 minutes straight and laughing about it. This was in the earlier days of the Chretien government.

I really hope that this is the Kim Campbell (actually the John Tory) moment we've been waiting for.

 

[Tewder]

I really hope that this is the Kim Campbell (actually the John Tory) moment we've been waiting for.

This is how you decide your vote? How about looking at the issues instead of the desperate tactics of all parties to discredit the others? Novel idea.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Tewder:

Indeed. Perhaps we should start by talking a) talking about the rationale behind the calling of this election and b) when the Conservatives decided to release their platform, vis-a-vis the electoral timetable?

AoD

 

[Tewder]

I think the Tories hyping up this video of Dion was a bad strategy move on their part and will reflect poorly on them. If they had just left it alone, I have no doubt that the video would have worked its way into the media in a day or two and hurt Dion. But by choosing to pull a group of media into a room in order to declare "look at this!" it makes them look desperate.

This move reminds me of the arts funding cuts... with the Conservatives forgetting that a lot of the voters that they are trying to sway don't have the same view on a certain issue.

I think you're right in that both incidents operate in the same way. Harper tries to raise non-issues that the Liberals effectively spin into issues. The reality for us the public is that they are still non-issues but that the Liberals are just more adept at the spin.

At the end of the day I'm frustrated by the devolving of public and political discourse in this country where American style personality politics are usurping the issues.