News   Jun 14, 2024
 2.4K     1 
News   Jun 14, 2024
 1.7K     1 
News   Jun 14, 2024
 838     0 

2018 Provincial Election Transit Promises

Why would it revert back?

GO operations subsidies have gone from about $150M/year to $500M/year since Wynne came to power; a good chunk of that is added mid-day/late evening costs to run diesel trains (both GO and UPX). Another chunk is Presto which ought to take care of itself once they get their full ~$90M/year from the TTC (percentage of revenue).

If you're looking to fund a tax cut and have already committed to capital spending, operations savings is a place to look. Dropping GO back to $200M/year operations subsidy funds 25% the $5B promised transit capital spending.

I obviously don't know what they'll do but a rebalancing of resources currently allocated to Lake Shore may occur. For example, they might interleave service (Lake Shore/Stouffville/Barrie) with a single train on a 2 hour cycle by ditching a few LakeShore runs.

IIRC, he didn't promise hourly service. He promised 2-way all-day service. That might be 2 hour frequencies on some lines at certain times or it might be 15 minute frequencies on all lines all the time.
 
Last edited:
I personally think Sheppard West to Spadina is a good investment. I think some of you are underestimating the potential ridership of the line once Spadina is open. Also many still take Finch or even Steeles to get across the northern part of the city because Sheppard is a stubway and too much of a nuisance to take if crossing the city but an extension makes it worth the effort.

I think a Yonge extension is a great idea because it will not go forward without a DRL as the Y&B station can simply not handle the passenger traffic. Of course the DRL should be built as catenary RER so very easily and cheaply extended north of Eglinton via the RH rail line and a needed alternative RER/GO corridor downtown as opposed to a quickly overburdened Union.
 
Why would it revert back?
Because the Tories are only promising 2-way all day service - which tends to be hourly.

They made no mention of RER service, which increases the hourly.

I personally think Sheppard West to Spadina is a good investment.
I don't think anyone disagrees. But I'm not sure the point - it's been in service for over 20 years now.

View attachment 128526
 
  • Like
Reactions: jys
I personally think Sheppard West to Spadina is a good investment. I think some of you are underestimating the potential ridership of the line once Spadina is open. Also many still take Finch or even Steeles to get across the northern part of the city because Sheppard is a stubway and too much of a nuisance to take if crossing the city but an extension makes it worth the effort.

I don't think anyone disagrees. But I'm not sure the point - it's been in service for over 20 years now.

I think that some wires may be crossed here.

The point was - "I think that Sheppard SUBWAY extended west to Spadina Subway (Line 1) is a good investment. I don't think that @ssiguy2 was referrring to the former Downsview Station now Sheppard West.
 
In this case, the reason to take over subway building is to build the Yonge North Extension. The PCs know that left to the city this project will not be built anytime within the next 30 years, so they have to take over in order to deliver this to their base.

Those of you folks dreaming of the DRL need to look at this realistically. The DRL does very little for anyone who live north of St Clair, which means this project is aimed squarely at a very strong Liberal base. Why would the PC government build a subway for Liberal voters unless they can win the votes. So if you want the DRL, downtown Toronto better start voting conservatives.

They mentioned Sheppard line because if the 4 ridings affected by the Shepard subway extension votes PC (and it’s likely this time around) that line will take the DRL funding and will get built first.

So my ranking follows if PC wins

Yonge North Extension
Sheppard East
DRL Long (short version won’t make sense for the PC)

Well hold on for a second.

DRL Long is excellent material for the outer-416 potential PC voter.

The PC's can easily campaign on bringing another subway to North York.
 
Just a reminder about the infrastructure program:

All projects funded through the BCF–CC are cost-shared, with the maximum federal contribution to any single project being 50 percent. Municipal projects are cost-shared on a one-third basis—the maximum federal share is limited to one-third, with a matching contribution from both the province and municipality.
  • maximum federal contribution to any single project being 50 percent.
  • Municipal projects are cost-shared on a one-third basis—the maximum federal share is limited to one-third, with a matching contribution from both the province and municipality.
Analysis
Under the PC platform, subway extensions being a provincial projects AND NOT a municipal projects would qualify it for the 50% funding. Hence, taking over the Scarborough Subway project and uploading the TTC subways makes a lot more sense and makes it easier for the province to pay for subway extensions than the status quo:

Example
SSE is a TTC/Municipal project: $5B= $1.6B Ottawa, up to $1.6B for Queen's Park and Toronto (each)

SSE is a Ontario Asset (uploaded): $5B= $2.5B Ottawa --> The province is free to determine the % the city has to pay since Ottawa pays half. Queen's Park can turn around an tell Toronto to pay (half) of the half that's left on the tab. So we could end up with this: $5B=
  • $2.5B Ottawa
  • $1.25B Queen's Park
  • $1.25B Toronto
Conclusion
Queen's Park saves money over the status quo and uploading the subways makes 100% sense. Instead of being on the hook for 1/3 of the cost of a project, their contribution could decrease to 1/4 of the costs


PC (2018 - 2022)
  • Contribution of $5B of new subways
  • All existing Transit projects are maintained

YNSE: $5.6B = $2.8B Ottawa + $1.4B Queen's Park + $1.4B (York Region + Toronto)

Relief South ($6.8B)
= $3.4B Ottawa + $1.7B Queen's Park + $1.7B (Toronto)

So far a PC government would have spent: $3.1B (approx.) left with $1.9B for Scarborough Subway extension
SSE:
Let's say the PC Government brings back the 3 stop Subway and the costs ballooned to $7B (worst case scenario). Here's the break down

Worst Case Scenario SSE 3 stop plan at $7B

  • $3.5B Ottawa
  • $1.75B Queen's Park
  • $1.75B Toronto
Conclusion
The PC Government at the end of it's 1st mandate, could have accurately spent less or exactly $5B of new subways. They are counting heavily on the Federal Infrastructure program and dumping a bigger share of the tab on the cities (these are the PC after all ;))

So where's Sheppard and Relief Long?
They'd save it to promise them for a PC second mandate.

What about future Ottawa - GTA future LRT plans?
I personally think they will fund some of the Phase II projects which means reverting back to the 1/3 model.
  • Ottawa as the most likely to be funded as the last time Hudak said no to it, it didn't work so well for them in the National Capital Region. They need to make gains here.
  • Brampton LRT: Desperately need to make gains here
  • Hamilton LRT: Great opportunity to make gains
  • Kitchener - Waterloo: They can afford to defer or just say no to phase II

What about future Toronto future LRT plans?
They are obviously out of that game. They made it clear by announcing the takeover of the SSE and by telling the city that Crosstown East was now their problem. The city could still lobby the province to fund a third of the costs for Jane, Waterfront & Crosstown East but that will be a tough sell due to the subway construction that will be going on in the city. With Sheppard and Relief Long possibly in the books for a 2nd mandate, and most likely approving Ottawa and some LRT in the province, there's no room for Toronto LRT.


Feel free to comment and point out errors and debate

Cheers
 
Last edited:
Just a reminder about the infrastructure program:

All projects funded through the BCF–CC are cost-shared, with the maximum federal contribution to any single project being 50 percent. Municipal projects are cost-shared on a one-third basis—the maximum federal share is limited to one-third, with a matching contribution from both the province and municipality.
  • maximum federal contribution to any single project being 50 percent.
  • Municipal projects are cost-shared on a one-third basis—the maximum federal share is limited to one-third, with a matching contribution from both the province and municipality.
Analysis
Under the PC platform, subway extensions being a provincial projects AND NOT a municipal projects would qualify it for the 50% funding. Hence, taking over the Scarborough Subway project and uploading the TTC subways makes a lot more sense and makes it easier for the province to pay for subway extensions than the status quo:

Example
SSE is a TTC/Municipal project: $5B= $1.6B Ottawa, up to $1.6B for Queen's Park and Toronto (each)

SSE is a Ontario Asset (uploaded): $5B= $2.5B Ottawa --> The province is free to determine the % the city has to pay since Ottawa pays half. Queen's Park can turn around an tell Toronto to pay (half) of the half that's left on the tab. So we could end up with this: $5B=
  • $2.5B Ottawa
  • $1.25B Queen's Park
  • $1.25B Toronto
Conclusion
Queen's Park saves money over the status quo and uploading the subways makes 100% sense. Instead of being on the hook for 1/3 of the cost of a project, their contribution could decrease to 1/4 of the costs


PC (2018 - 2022)
  • Contribution of $5B of new subways
  • All existing Transit projects are maintained

YNSE: $5.6B = $2.8B Ottawa + $1.4B Queen's Park + $1.4B (York Region + Toronto)

Relief South ($6.8B)
= $3.4B Ottawa + $1.7B Queen's Park + $1.7B (Toronto)

So far a PC government would have spent: $3.1B (approx.) left with $1.9B for Scarborough Subway extension
SSE:
Let's say the PC Government brings back the 3 stop Subway and the costs ballooned to $7B (worst case scenario). Here's the break down

Worst Case Scenario SSE 3 stop plan at $7B

  • $3.5B Ottawa
  • $1.75B Queen's Park
  • $1.75B Toronto
Conclusion
The PC Government at the end of it's 1st mandate, could have accurately spent less or exactly $5B of new subways. They are counting heavily on the Federal Infrastructure program and dumping a bigger share of the tab on the cities (these are the PC after all ;))

So where's Sheppard and Relief Long?
They'd save it to promise them for a PC second mandate.

What about future Ottawa - GTA future LRT plans?
I personally think they will fund some of the Phase II projects which means reverting back to the 1/3 model.
  • Ottawa as the most likely to be funded as the last time Hudak said no to it, it didn't work so well for them in the National Capital Region. They need to make gains here.
  • Brampton LRT: Desperately need to make gains here
  • Hamilton LRT: Great opportunity to make gains
  • Kitchener - Waterloo: They can afford to defer or just say no to phase II

What about future Toronto future LRT plans?
They are obviously out of that game. They made it clear by announcing the takeover of the SSE and by telling the city that Crosstown East was now their problem. The city could still lobby the province to fund a third of the costs for Jane, Waterfront & Crosstown East but that will be a tough sell due to the subway construction that will be going on in the city. With Sheppard and Relief Long possibly in the books for a 2nd mandate, and most likely approving Ottawa and some LRT in the province, there's no room for Toronto LRT.


Feel free to comment and point out errors and debate

Cheers
Is the Federal Government obligated to paying half the cost of all Provincial transit/infrastructure projects ?
 
Just a reminder about the infrastructure program:

All projects funded through the BCF–CC are cost-shared, with the maximum federal contribution to any single project being 50 percent. Municipal projects are cost-shared on a one-third basis—the maximum federal share is limited to one-third, with a matching contribution from both the province and municipality.
  • maximum federal contribution to any single project being 50 percent.
  • Municipal projects are cost-shared on a one-third basis—the maximum federal share is limited to one-third, with a matching contribution from both the province and municipality.
Analysis
Under the PC platform, subway extensions being a provincial projects AND NOT a municipal projects would qualify it for the 50% funding. Hence, taking over the Scarborough Subway project and uploading the TTC subways makes a lot more sense and makes it easier for the province to pay for subway extensions than the status quo:

Example
SSE is a TTC/Municipal project: $5B= $1.6B Ottawa, up to $1.6B for Queen's Park and Toronto (each)

SSE is a Ontario Asset (uploaded): $5B= $2.5B Ottawa --> The province is free to determine the % the city has to pay since Ottawa pays half. Queen's Park can turn around an tell Toronto to pay (half) of the half that's left on the tab. So we could end up with this: $5B=
  • $2.5B Ottawa
  • $1.25B Queen's Park
  • $1.25B Toronto
Conclusion
Queen's Park saves money over the status quo and uploading the subways makes 100% sense. Instead of being on the hook for 1/3 of the cost of a project, their contribution could decrease to 1/4 of the costs


PC (2018 - 2022)
  • Contribution of $5B of new subways
  • All existing Transit projects are maintained

YNSE: $5.6B = $2.8B Ottawa + $1.4B Queen's Park + $1.4B (York Region + Toronto)

Relief South ($6.8B)
= $3.4B Ottawa + $1.7B Queen's Park + $1.7B (Toronto)

So far a PC government would have spent: $3.1B (approx.) left with $1.9B for Scarborough Subway extension
SSE:
Let's say the PC Government brings back the 3 stop Subway and the costs ballooned to $7B (worst case scenario). Here's the break down

Worst Case Scenario SSE 3 stop plan at $7B

  • $3.5B Ottawa
  • $1.75B Queen's Park
  • $1.75B Toronto
Conclusion
The PC Government at the end of it's 1st mandate, could have accurately spent less or exactly $5B of new subways. They are counting heavily on the Federal Infrastructure program and dumping a bigger share of the tab on the cities (these are the PC after all ;))

So where's Sheppard and Relief Long?
They'd save it to promise them for a PC second mandate.

What about future Ottawa - GTA future LRT plans?
I personally think they will fund some of the Phase II projects which means reverting back to the 1/3 model.
  • Ottawa as the most likely to be funded as the last time Hudak said no to it, it didn't work so well for them in the National Capital Region. They need to make gains here.
  • Brampton LRT: Desperately need to make gains here
  • Hamilton LRT: Great opportunity to make gains
  • Kitchener - Waterloo: They can afford to defer or just say no to phase II

What about future Toronto future LRT plans?
They are obviously out of that game. They made it clear by announcing the takeover of the SSE and by telling the city that Crosstown East was now their problem. The city could still lobby the province to fund a third of the costs for Jane, Waterfront & Crosstown East but that will be a tough sell due to the subway construction that will be going on in the city. With Sheppard and Relief Long possibly in the books for a 2nd mandate, and most likely approving Ottawa and some LRT in the province, there's no room for Toronto LRT.


Feel free to comment and point out errors and debate

Cheers

There’s a snowballs chance in hell of Toronto generating $1.75 Billion for the DRL, without the city using new or unutilized revenue tools, such as vehicle registration or sales taxes.
 
Is the Federal Government obligated to paying half the cost of all Provincial transit/infrastructure projects ?

This is the full paragraph

All projects funded through the BCF–CC are cost-shared, with the maximum federal contribution to any single project being 50 percent. Municipal projects are cost-shared on a one-third basis—the maximum federal share is limited to one-third, with a matching contribution from both the province and municipality. For projects where the asset is owned by a private sector entity, the maximum federal contribution is 25 percent. Within the program's stacking provisions, municipalities may use funding received through the Gas Tax Fund to increase the federal share to 50 percent of total eligible project costs.

It looks like, I haven't seen anything saying otherwise. The only other restrictions are
  • Municipal projects = 1/3 but municipalities may use funding received through the Gas Tax Fund to increase the federal share to 50 percent of total eligible project costs.
  • Private projects =25% (explaining why the Montreal REM only got $1.3B on a $6B project) The asset belongs to CDQ
No restrictions for the provinces
 
There’s a snowballs chance in hell of Toronto generating $1.75 Billion for the DRL, without the city using new or unutilized revenue tools, such as vehicle registration or sales taxes.

The city will have no choice. The PC conveniently opposed Tory's tolls to look good for the suburbs. They will force Toronto's hand to increase their property taxes and/or force them to ask Queen's Park to add a city sales tax. Either way, the city has little choice but to go along with it if it ever hope to build subways. That way, the pressure is back on city hall while a PC Government can just deflect blame.

If I'm right, it's brilliant of the PC to go down that route
 
The city will have no choice. The PC conveniently opposed Tory's tolls to look good for the suburbs. They will force Toronto's hand to increase their property taxes and/or force them to ask Queen's Park to add a city sales tax. Either way, the city has little choice but to go along with it if it ever hope to build subways. That way, the pressure is back on city hall while a PC Government can just deflect blame.

If I'm right, it's brilliant of the PC to go down that route

I know the City will have no choice, I’m just saying it’s not feasible for the city do it. Toronto is at its debt ceiling, and no revenue tool the City possesses can generate $1.75 Billion in a timely manner. If this is indeed the plan, then we might as well consider the DRL canceled.
 
I know the City will have no choice, I’m just saying it’s not feasible for the city do it. Toronto is at its debt ceiling, and no revenue tool the City possesses can generate $1.75 Billion in a timely manner. If this is indeed the plan, then we might as well consider the DRL canceled.
Then we just hike up the property taxes, no?

Tory after winning the 2018 election is on his way out. He would have no qualms about doing it in his last term. It's the next guy/gal's problem.
 
There is something very entitled about a Province saying the Federal contribution must go from 33% to 50%,

One can assume that Ottawa would not fund fewer absolute dollars to an incoming PC regime than it has promised to its Liberal predecessor, for the same projects that had been approved previously. But a Province saying, hey we are paying 50%, so you Ottawa have to pay that also, doesn't sound compelling to me.

I can agree that the PC sleight of hand might actually download cost to cities. But thinking that they will pry more money out of Ottawa by changing their contribution and then re-intepreting the fine print of the infrastructure fund rules is not a wise bet.

- Paul
 
I can agree that the PC sleight of hand might actually download cost to cities. But thinking that they will pry more money out of Ottawa by changing their contribution and then re-intepreting the fine print of the infrastructure fund rules is not a wise bet.
It is a good way to make the Provincial Liberals double-down however, and drag the Fed Libs with them.
 

Back
Top