Just a reminder about the infrastructure program:
All projects funded through the BCF–CC are cost-shared, with the maximum federal contribution to any single project being 50 percent. Municipal projects are cost-shared on a one-third basis—the maximum federal share is limited to one-third, with a matching contribution from both the province and municipality.
- maximum federal contribution to any single project being 50 percent.
- Municipal projects are cost-shared on a one-third basis—the maximum federal share is limited to one-third, with a matching contribution from both the province and municipality.
Analysis
Under the PC platform, subway extensions being a provincial projects AND NOT a municipal projects would qualify it for the 50% funding. Hence, taking over the Scarborough Subway project and uploading the TTC subways makes a lot more sense and makes it easier for the province to pay for subway extensions than the status quo:
Example
SSE is a TTC/Municipal project: $5B= $1.6B Ottawa, up to $1.6B for Queen's Park and Toronto (each)
SSE is a Ontario Asset (uploaded): $5B=
$2.5B Ottawa --> The province is free to determine the % the city has to pay since Ottawa pays half. Queen's Park can turn around an tell Toronto to pay (half) of the half that's left on the tab. So we could end up with this: $5B=
- $2.5B Ottawa
- $1.25B Queen's Park
- $1.25B Toronto
Conclusion
Queen's Park saves money over the status quo and uploading the subways makes 100% sense.
Instead of being on the hook for 1/3 of the cost of a project, their contribution could decrease to 1/4 of the costs
PC (2018 - 2022)
- Contribution of $5B of new subways
- All existing Transit projects are maintained
YNSE: $5.6B = $2.8B Ottawa +
$1.4B Queen's Park + $1.4B (York Region + Toronto)
Relief South ($6.8B) = $3.4B Ottawa +
$1.7B Queen's Park + $1.7B (Toronto)
So far a PC government would have spent:
$3.1B (approx.) left with $1.9B for
Scarborough Subway extension
SSE: Let's say the PC Government brings back the 3 stop Subway and the costs ballooned to $7B (worst case scenario). Here's the break down
Worst Case Scenario SSE 3 stop plan at $7B
- $3.5B Ottawa
- $1.75B Queen's Park
- $1.75B Toronto
Conclusion
The PC Government at the end of it's 1st mandate, could have accurately spent less or exactly $5B of new subways. They are counting heavily on the Federal Infrastructure program and dumping a bigger share of the tab on the cities (these are the PC after all
)
So where's Sheppard and Relief Long?
They'd save it to promise them for a PC second mandate.
What about future Ottawa - GTA future LRT plans?
I personally think they will fund some of the Phase II projects which means reverting back to the 1/3 model.
- Ottawa as the most likely to be funded as the last time Hudak said no to it, it didn't work so well for them in the National Capital Region. They need to make gains here.
- Brampton LRT: Desperately need to make gains here
- Hamilton LRT: Great opportunity to make gains
- Kitchener - Waterloo: They can afford to defer or just say no to phase II
What about future Toronto future LRT plans?
They are obviously out of that game. They made it clear by announcing the takeover of the SSE and by telling the city that Crosstown East was now their problem. The city could still lobby the province to fund a third of the costs for Jane, Waterfront & Crosstown East but that will be a tough sell due to the subway construction that will be going on in the city. With Sheppard and Relief Long possibly in the books for a 2nd mandate, and most likely approving Ottawa and some LRT in the province, there's no room for Toronto LRT.
Feel free to comment and point out errors and debate
Cheers
