2018 Provincial Election Transit Promises

[OneCity]

Steve Del Duca has some thoughts on the PC platform. There might be some truth here, however he's the last person who should be accusing anybody for "saying anything" for votes.




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Vaughan wouldn't have their subway if it wasn't for a Conservative Government(federal) But this would put his Kirby stop on life support.

The shock value alone of the Provincial Cons talking transit is hopefully enough to push the desperate Liberals into a higher gear. They never had any competition on transit so the Cons sliding closer to centre is a great sign

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Anybody know what the delta is to go from AD2W to RER? Is it a situation where if the PCs go ahead with AD2W, they still need to finish all the enabling works going on? Would it simply mean that electrification and conversion to RER gets delayed or a few years, with work after full AD2W? Or is it one of those situations where AD2W does not move the ball substantially on RER?

I am still surprised they aren't pushing for RER. Room for Liberals to differentiate and capture 905 votes....

AD2W = half hour or hourly service to ends of GTA
RER = 15 minute electrification to growth centres.

So it will take time to get to RER if even if every line has all day service because you still need to electrify the central portion and build the other infrastructure for it. But it will be more efficient to operate then diesel.

 

[M II A II R II K]

Province should take over TTC and other cities’ transit systems, says Toronto Region Board of Trade

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/tr...stems-says-toronto-region-board-of-trade.html

.....

- Authors of new Toronto Region Board of Trade report argue creating a "Superlinx" to rule the region’s transit would “finally provide the world-class transit system” the Toronto-Waterloo Corridor needs.

- The report’s authors argue that consolidating the planning, construction and operation of transit into a single provincial body would benefit transit riders and municipal governments by reducing the risk of politics interfering in the delivery of evidence-based projects and freeing up cities to spend resources on other priorities.

- Agencies miss out on opportunities to raise money by leveraging the value of land surrounding stations and to integrate much-needed new housing with transit projects. By contrast, Transport for London, England, recently released 300 acres of property across the British capital to accommodate 10,000 new and affordable homes, and the city’s Crossrail project is expected to generate $850 million (Canadian) from commercial and residential development at 12 properties.

.....

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

- The report’s authors argue that consolidating the planning, construction and operation of transit into a single provincial body would benefit transit riders and municipal governments by reducing the risk of politics interfering in the delivery of evidence-based projects and freeing up cities to spend resources on other priorities.
.....

Har har, the jokes write itself. This bit of information requires some further expansion:

The provincial government would lay out broad policies for Superlinx and have final say over its budget. But to limit political interference, half of the agency’s board would be made up of business leaders and transit experts nominated by an independent panel. At least one space would be reserved for a citizens’ or riders’ advocacy group.


About one-third of the board would consist of municipal and provincial appointees, while the remaining members would be Superlinx executives.

Having final say over the budget, with no independent authority to raise funds is defacto control, the rest is just governance fluff (never mind who chooses this "independent" panel).

On a more serious note, the PC proposal needs a finer comb at this point, but the fact it is there is important.

AoD

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Province should take over TTC and other cities’ transit systems, says Toronto Region Board of Trade

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/tr...stems-says-toronto-region-board-of-trade.html

.....

- Authors of new Toronto Region Board of Trade report argue creating a "Superlinx" to rule the region’s transit would “finally provide the world-class transit system” the Toronto-Waterloo Corridor needs.

- The report’s authors argue that consolidating the planning, construction and operation of transit into a single provincial body would benefit transit riders and municipal governments by reducing the risk of politics interfering in the delivery of evidence-based projects and freeing up cities to spend resources on other priorities.

- Agencies miss out on opportunities to raise money by leveraging the value of land surrounding stations and to integrate much-needed new housing with transit projects. By contrast, Transport for London, England, recently released 300 acres of property across the British capital to accommodate 10,000 new and affordable homes, and the city’s Crossrail project is expected to generate $850 million (Canadian) from commercial and residential development at 12 properties.

.....

There is absolutely no guarantee that this will lead to better implementation of transit. Just down the road in New York State, the State control of the MTA has lead to decades of neglect and underinvestment in NYC transit.

 

[M II A II R II K]

We’ll then maybe copy what other large cities are doing right instead then.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I've said this in the TTC Catch-All thread, and I'll say it again here, is that the problem with these proposals for provincial control of GTHA regional transit is that it removes the influence that GTHA residents and commuters and puts it in the direct control of politicians far removed from our region, that are beholden to many more interests that aren't necessarily congruent with our goals of building an effective transit network. We see this play out in New York, where state politicians have spend several decades largely ignoring the needs of the NYC metro system, making it one of the worst and most poorly performing large metro systems in the world. Like in New York State, there's a large contingency of Ontario voters that aren't particularly deferential to Toronto and the GTHA. Why would we import the same system into Ontario and the GTHA and expect a different result?

Put the systems in control of the regional municipalities that run it. Have each municipalities control over transit be proportional to their transit ridership. Give them the tools to pay for transit operation and expansion. This way, the people controlling the transit are the same people using it daily.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Toronto is even more dominant of political discourse in this province than New York City is in New York, I would say.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Toronto is even more dominant of political discourse in this province than New York City is in New York, I would say.

The NYC metropolitan area makes up 13 Million of New York State's 20 Million people. Toronto is 7 Million of 13.5 Million. And of course, NYC is a city of far greater consequence than Toronto. So I don't understand why you'd say that Toronto would be even more dominant of political discourse in Ontario, than NYC is in NY.

 

[crs1026]

The shock value alone of the Provincial Cons talking transit is hopefully enough to push the desperate Liberals into a higher gear. They never had any competition on transit so the Cons sliding closer to centre is a great sign

Yes, the prospect that the Tories will have Transit Platform A will force the Liberals to be much clearer on what their Transit Platform B will be. Neither will be perfect, but that's a much more appealing basis for a debate than one party saying "Do X" and the other saying "Cancel X".

Some detailed things that ought to be probed:
- Will the Tories support the Halton Bypass? How would they resolve the impasse with CN ? (And with CP to Milton?)
- Will the current project strategy (via IO) stand?
- Will the Taj Mahal station construction strategy stand?

Anybody know what the delta is to go from AD2W to RER? Is it a situation where if the PCs go ahead with AD2W, they still need to finish all the enabling works going on? Would it simply mean that electrification and conversion to RER gets delayed or a few years, with work after full AD2W? Or is it one of those situations where AD2W does not move the ball substantially on RER?

I am still surprised they aren't pushing for RER. Room for Liberals to differentiate and capture 905 votes....

It's really pretty binary. Electrification enables RER. No electrification, no RER. And likely no ST either. If there is no electrification, headways are likely to remain in the 30 minute zone at best. That vision might in turn cause some elimination of bells and whistles - less new trackage, etc, although the really fundamental track projects will be "in progress" by election season so would likely be protected by the "keep things moving" promise.

The Tories could defuse a Liberal RER push by promising to electrify something (like UPX, and possibly Barrie, since the Davenport solution turns directly on a promise that it will be electrified) but coast on going further. Frankly, a demonstration RER line might be good strategy to win the public over.

PTC (by any acronym) will be interesting. It would be hard for the Tories to cancel it without handing the Liberals a good talking point.

At this point one has to be a bit suspicious that the Tories are heading towards RER Lite, but in a very gracious and non-Mike-Harris way. So the probing needs to carry on. The bright side is, it gives so much room to challenge Wynne and DD on why they have talked so expansively but only delivered on some of it. I'm really looking forward to this debate.

- Paul

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

The NYC metropolitan area makes up 13 Million of New York State's 20 Million people. Toronto is 7 Million of 13.5 Million. And of course, NYC is a city of far greater consequence than Toronto. So I don't understand why you'd say that Toronto would be even more dominant of political discourse in Ontario, than NYC is in NY.

By city NYC is only 8.5 million. And there's Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Albany. Also Westchester/Putnam and Long Island, NYC area but different needs at times.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I've said this in the TTC Catch-All thread, and I'll say it again here, is that the problem with these proposals for provincial control of GTHA regional transit is that it removes the influence that GTHA residents and commuters and puts it in the direct control of politicians far removed from our region, that are beholden to many more interests that aren't necessarily congruent with our goals of building an effective transit network. We see this play out in New York, where state politicians have spend several decades largely ignoring the needs of the NYC metro system, making it one of the worst and most poorly performing large metro systems in the world. Like in New York State, there's a large contingency of Ontario voters that aren't particularly deferential to Toronto and the GTHA. Why would we import the same system into Ontario and the GTHA and expect a different result?

Put the systems in control of the regional municipalities that run it. Have each municipalities control over transit be proportional to their transit ridership. Give them the tools to pay for transit operation and expansion. This way, the people controlling the transit are the same people using it daily.

This NYT article is a good overview of the problematic nature of MTA governance. It’s a good insight into what can go wrong when you you let the subway become dominated by interests outside the city.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/nyregion/mta-subway-cuomo.html?referer=https://www.google.ca

The PCs haven’t released the details of their plans (I doubt they even know), but if the extent of their plan is to simply upload the subways to the province, it seems like the City of Toronto and GTHA transit riders would have even less influence over subway operations than they do in New York.

 

[rbt]

Property Tax incrementation and fare surcharges!

If thats the case, then it's safe to say the infrastructure bank will not be giving out any funds at all.

TIF has failed at funding several projects already. There is zero proven return on that point; it's a high risk proposition which our banks tell everyone not to touch (see Gordon Chong on Sheppard subway and the Tory team with Smart Track).

For a fare a typical subway only ride (no transfers) costs around $4 today with zero contribution to the initial capital. That's operating costs and maintenance, including capital maintenance. The subway does not run a profit today unless you ignore most of the upkeep costs; expansions will not be better in that regard.

TTC estimates their subway assets have a value around $10B, which means at 4% rate it needs an extra $400M/year to pay interest. So we're talking closer to a $5 fare to pay interest and $6 fare to pay down the debt; again with zero transfers. Likely closer to $8 once ridership drops due to the 2x fare increase. So fare surcharges aren't going to do it either (pay current bills plus new bills).


In reality, we're talking massive annual government subsidies from either the municipal government or provincial government to provide a private profit (not unlike most P3 contracts). So, property taxes, personal income taxes, and commercial income taxes.

I have no issues with paying for a loan. I do have issues with misleading the public to believing those payments will come out of the farebox.

 

[rbt]

Anybody know what the delta is to go from AD2W to RER? Is it a situation where if the PCs go ahead with AD2W, they still need to finish all the enabling works going on? Would it simply mean that electrification and conversion to RER gets delayed or a few years, with work after full AD2W? Or is it one of those situations where AD2W does not move the ball substantially on RER?

You recall the short double-tracking that was added to the Barrie line recently? That's what was required for hourly service.

The Davenport grade separation, double tracking the entire route (including tunnels at stations and second platforms), and all those other bits are required for RER.

Hourly central mid-day service with single direction peak period travel has fairly low track requirements.

The Kitchener line needs a bit of help still but the package the feds contributed to is more than sufficient.

Does it help RER? Infrastructure wise, not much beyond what's already started the tendering process. Ridership growth over a 10 year period of hourly service would certainly make the business case far easier to sell to the penny pinching members of the public.

The real intersting question is will LakeShore be reverted back to hourly service.

 

[Allandale25]

You recall the short double-tracking that was added to the Barrie line recently? That's what was required for hourly service.

The real interesting question is will LakeShore be reverted back to hourly service.

Why would it revert back?