2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

[nfitz]

So the question I have is:

If 22% to 38% of people support Ford, and 39% of people support Wynne - does that mean that 61% to 77% of Torontonians demand 0 morals, ethics and accountability from their leaders.

How can you even begin to compare Ford and Wynne? We've seen much evidence of lack of morals, ethics, and accountability from Ford, but very little of Wynne.

And if your going to go for morals and ethics, why not include someone with a history like Hudak in the mix. Surely his clearly lack of morals, shown in his continuing unwillingness to say anything negative about Rob Ford, and his clear lack of ethics in his defence of homophobia, shows him a lot less moral and unethical than Wynne.

 

[JasonParis]

I'm surprised that many Stintz/Socknaki voters would move to Chow since they're more right on the spectrum than Chow.

I don't find the political spectrum all that useful anymore period, but especially at the local level. Moreover, even when it is useful, most voters don't think in those silos anyway.

 

[toraerach]

They propose similar policies but one is a fiscal conservative (an actual one! not the fake ones like Tory and Ford) while Chow is an NDPer

I think we ought to abandon this "fiscal conservative" thing. One can be fiscally responsible without being a conservative, just as one can be a recklessly irresponsible conservative. Cutting spending in the short term may lead to larger long term costs (see investments in infrastructure over the past decades, for example), while paying a little bit more up front for well run programs and projects may save or even make us money over the longer term.

I'm happy to pay more money if I can see how it's being used to improve the city. The idea some on the right seem to have - that we can cut without consequence - is absolutely toxic to the discourse.

One thing to keep in mind is that it's more than likely we'll wind up with a council still dominated by the centre/right. I think that should assuage the fears in some quarters of a reckless "tax 'n' spend" government under Chow.

There needs to be a new truly progressive political party in Ontario that would be like the old NDP.

I think the Toronto wing of the party remains more committed to a progressive urban agenda. Unfortunately, Ms. Horwath seems to be chasing the rust belt populist vote. I'm hoping that that strategy will backfire just enough that we'll end up with someone like Tabuns or Prue at the helm come the next election.

 

[BurlOak]

One thing to keep in mind is that it's more than likely we'll wind up with a council still dominated by the centre/right. I think that should assuage the fears in some quarters of a reckless "tax 'n' spend" government under Chow.

Does that mean the current council is centre/right?

 

[StatGeek]

As for Chow popularity with Soknacki & Stintz voters, as been mentioned Soknacki and Chow, has similar transit plan and probably been the most anti-Ford candidate. Stintz is a bit more confusing. The only thing I can think of is that both Stintz & Chow have high female approval. The male candidates have equal appeal among their men & women supporters, but Stintz has a +6 among women, while Chow has +12 among women. As superficial as it sounds, there could be some female supporters who like the idea of a woman being mayor again (Rob Ford can turn anybody away from men) and if Stintz isn't in it, maybe go to the other lady on the ballot.

The Tory vs Chow overall approval number is a bit odd (Tory 69% vs Chow 58%) especially considered Chow has higher approval with Stintz and Soks voters. Also add that Tory supporters have a higher opinion of Chow than vice versa (61% vs 38%). So how on earth is Tory approval numbers higher than Chow. The answer is Ford nation, they gave Chow a ridiculous low 6% (way lower than any other support group give any other candidate, including Ford) So crazy Ford nation knocked her number down, so as an outsider that would be considered good news for Tory as the alternative. But one problem. Ford nation is filled with crazies and they don't give much respect to Tory (with only 29%) Ford nation considers everybody who not a crack head not to be worthy of their support. So will they end up supporting Tory or just continue to be with Ford till the end or just stay home.

Here is the chart of which candidate supporters approval of other candidates
Ford (overall approval 38%)... Ford fans support (in percentage) ... RF 97... KS 24... JT 29... OC 06... DS 35
Tory (overall approval 69%)... Tory fans support (in percentage) ... RF 54... KS 47... JT 97... OC 61... DS 41
Stintz (overall approval 47%)... Stintz fans support(in percentage).. RF 15... KS 83... JT 47... OC 66... DS 46
Chow (overall approval 58%)... Chow fans support (in percentage)... RF 21... KS 63... JT 38... OC 98... DS 66
Soknacki (overall approval 56%) Socknacki fans support(in percentage. RF 26.. KS 42.. JT 49... OC 75... DS 84

The thing that stands up most in this chart is how batsh*t crazy Ford nation is. Every other fan of other candidates have multiple people that they are okay with. But Ford nation much like the bizarre cult they are, HATES everybody and think nobody is as worthy as their crackhead leader. Ford nation is truly an island onto themselves and every other candidate (except Tory) voted Ford the least liked person. Even Tory fans have more support for Chow than they have for Ford. Which puts Tory in an odd place that a lot of his voters don't hate Chow but actually views her as the second best option.

 

[toraerach]

Does that mean the current council is centre/right?

As far as city politics go, of course. The lines dividing the left, centre and right are blurry - as they will always be in a system without party politics - but you can't seriously be suggesting the left dominates council at this time. Granted, council has had a moderating influence on the ever shrinking Fordite contingent, but the tone and agenda has been guided by the right/centre since the election (cancellation of the VRT, ripping up the Jarvis bike lanes, outsourcing garbage collection, upping user fees and fares while shrinking service, etc.). The previous council also moderated the Miller mayoralty; we were hardly living in a socialist workers' paradise (as much as some would protest to the contrary). Miller knew how to get council support for his initiatives though, something Chow and Tory will likely be able to muster too. Ford has never shed his contrarian belligerence, thus council may appear to be full of socialist elites to Ford Nation diehards.

 

[SunriseChampion]

I don't find the political spectrum all that useful anymore period, but especially at the local level. Moreover, even when it is useful, most voters don't think in those silos anyway.

One of the first things I learned while studying poli sci at Carleton ten years ago (frig, I'm getting old) is the exact idea of the uselessness of the overly-simplistic left-right spectrum in how political ideology is viewed. It is actually a disservice to us all to look at politics in such a simplistically segregated way. Its overuse not only dumbs down political discourse but also leads to hyper-partisanship and an aversion to concensus-building.
If you take a look at our current political climate at all three levels of government, I'm sure you'll very easily notice the disgustingly toxic atmosphere. This can be attributed to a few factors, one of which is the need for power-seekers to conform to rigid ideologies to appease an electorate that is--for the most part--only able to think of political ideology in simple left vs right terms. This is what they are fed by media and politicians and is intellectually lazy and, frankly, offensive.

I personally have no use for a linear structure used in identifying ideology and worldview. It just doesn't make sense.

I'll use myself as an example.
I'm for abortion, but I think welfare eligibility rules should be tightened up. Am I left wing or right wing?
I think drugs should be legalised and regulated but think that corporate taxes for small business should be abolished. Am I left wing or right wing?
etc

It's simply a useless metric for identifying political ideology as it oversimplifies human thought patterns.

 

[SunriseChampion]

Does that mean the current council is centre/right?

As per my previous post:

This is what I'm talking about. This doesn't make any sense. You have 44 different minds in council and you've been able to distill this simple of an interpretation of how these minds think. This is a generalisation that does nothing to stop any sort of the political tribalisation that all too often makes council dysfunctional.

 

[RC8]

At this stage, and after much consideration, I have come to conclude that a Rob Ford 'minority' re-election may in fact be less damaging for the City in the long-term than a Tory election. It would be a shake-up, for sure, but one that Toronto's superbly active civil society would be able to get over in order to push for Toronto's pressing needs.

John Tory is increasingly demonstrating that he would carry out Ford's original agenda. His policies would also mask the increasing geographic and class tensions that are breaking down the city's political scene, without adequately addressing any of them.

 

[newearthling]

Huh. Tory changed his stance on Eglinton.
https://twitter.com/johntoryT0/status/462609562907209729
There is a comparison between screen grabs of his position on Eg Connects in April and then in May.
April says cancel.
May says postpone until the funding found.

 

[RC8]

Huh. Tory changed his stance on Eglinton.
https://twitter.com/johntoryT0/status/462609562907209729
There is a comparison between screen grabs of his position on Eg Connects in April and then in May.
April says cancel.
May says postpone until the funding found.

He did not change it, really. He re-worded it with more typical Kouvalis non-sense.

The congestion-causing street alterations will not cause congestion. You will not find a single expert or planner or otherwise informed person who would say so. He is just lying to continue exploiting the tensions that brought Ford to power.

 

[Arg0]

A Conversation About Innovation

Soknacki has an interesting event tonight (May 6th)


"A Conversation About Innovation

David Soknacki wants to use Toronto's talent to solve Toronto's problems, and he needs your help.

Come and share your ideas with David as he works to be your next mayor.

He has unveiled a plan to partner City Hall departments with local startups, and to open up more municipal data so that social entrepreneurs can find innovative solutions to our shared challenges.

Want to hear more? Have a great idea that David should champion during this important campaign?

Join him at CSI and help build a city that works."

http://www.soknacki2014.com/may_6_conversation_about_innovation


Anyone going?

 

[dark.horse]

So the new forum research poll came out, and does not look good for Ford (and Tory looks a bit concerning too). First Ford approval is at 38% (down from 46) . Being in the mid 40s is horrible for a sitting mayor. Getting into the 30s is Montreal mayor while in prison numbers.

The head to head of course is interesting
Chow 33% (down one but consistent) Tory 27% (up three, peaking) Ford 22% (down five, lowest point) Stintz 6% (consistent), Soknacki 5%(up one)
Problem with Ford is if he viewed as third place, He can't play the "fear of Chow" card because if Tory is leading or even with Ford numbers, they would vote for Tory not Ford as the alternative.

Another bad issue with Ford is that he and his supporters have aliened everybody who not in there 25% that I doubt he will get any soft Stintz or Soknnacki voters. If history shows that fourth and fifth place candidates will drop out or supporters will try to bet on a horse that can win. Not all there supporters but a good chunk. That why I think Chow 33% can grow but I doubt Ford even with his recent Tory jumpers going back to him will maybe get 30%. He might top out at 32% at best case scenario for him.

An interesting poll is to look Chow/Tory/Ford 3way. As that normally happens as the other candidates drop out or supporters find "best possible" contender. This scenerio we have
Chow 40% (adding 7% of Stintz/Soknacki voters) Tory 29% (adding only 2% of S&S voters) Ford 25% (adding only 3% of S&S voters)
This is HUGE. This show Chow is the default (central) candidate compared to everybody else. she is gets more Stintz & Soknacki than Ford and Tory combined. Traditionally with winner ends up with at least 40%. The vote splitting conern, I always thought was over-rated. As the election comes closer people vote for the horse they think can win. Chow hitting 40% is big. Also Tory and Ford not able to grab any Stintz and Soknacki voters so far is telling. It predictable with Ford, surprised about Tory lack of appeal.

Surprised that Tory can't grab more of Stintz's supporters since to me, they would seem to have similar policies... Hopefully this turns out to be the case closer to the election date...

 

[doady]

Does anyone kinda wish Rob Ford gets re-elected? The other candidates are pretty weak. Rob Ford is also weak, but he provides entertainment. I live in Mississauga though so I'm not actually directly affected by his mayoralty (or lack thereof) so maybe my priorities are different.

 

[tariqata]

Does anyone kinda wish Rob Ford gets re-elected? The other candidates are pretty weak. Rob Ford is also weak, but he provides entertainment. I live in Mississauga though so I'm not actually directly affected by his mayoralty (or lack thereof) so maybe my priorities are different.

Speaking for myself: NOPE.

Weak and boring wins out over weak and criminal in my personal calculus of voting intention.