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2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

NOW: TTC hasn’t given up on Scarborough LRT

Ahead of a meeting of the TTC board on Wednesday, the commission’s CEO Andy Byford told reporters that “given the potential uncertainty” around the mayor’s race, the agency is concentrating on preliminary work that could apply to either subway or light rail. He suggested the TTC is reluctant to spend tax dollars on a subway line that could be cancelled depending on who wins the October 27 vote.

"What we're trying to avoid is wasting money. So whether it were an LRT or a subway there's certain things that you would have to do anyway by way of preparatory work," he said. "We're proceeding with work that needs to be done regardless of the mode."

* * *

Chow's campaign was quick to jump on Byford's comments, claiming them as proof that “above-ground rail is doable."

"The studies are done, the environmental assessment is complete and construction can begin next year,” said Jamey Heath, Chow's spokesperson, in an email.

Supriya Dwivedi, a spokesperson for candidate David Soknacki, who also supports light rail, said subway proponents have been claiming the project is "a done deal, but it's clear that it's not."

Both candidates argue that the above-ground plan is the better option because it would have four more stops and serve thousands more people than the subway. They also criticize the 30-year, 1.6-per-cent tax increase that would pay for the city’s $1-billion contribution to the $3.6-billion underground line.
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canmark said:
TTC hasn’t given up on Scarborough LRT
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Did't they give up on the Scarborough LRT when they signed off on the final Metrolinx Kennedy station design that's now being tendered for construction, that all but eliminates the possibility of underground platforms for the LRT?
 
nfitz said:
Did't they give up on the Scarborough LRT when they signed off on the final Metrolinx Kennedy station design that's now being tendered for construction, that all but eliminates the possibility of underground platforms for the LRT?
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Apparently since council cheaped out of giving the TTC substantial cash to progress the work on the line, the TTC has only done enough work up to now that would need to be done whether it was an LRT or subway. Byford was merely being honest by saying that. If the work on Kennedy had progressed to being only applicable to subway, he would have said that.
 
edmundoconnor said:
Apparently since council cheaped out of giving the TTC substantial cash to progress the work on the line, the TTC has only done enough work up to now that would need to be done whether it was an LRT or subway. Byford was merely being honest by saying that. If the work on Kennedy had progressed to being only applicable to subway, he would have said that.
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Shocking. we could end up with nothing!
 
Sooner or later, shovels will go into the ground, and the opponents of whichever scheme lost out will then only have a very narrow window to attempt to cancel the scheme without it costing hundreds of millions of dollars. Hence the furious hand-to-hand fighting going on before anything has really been done. There's still time to change course. If Chow wins, and somehow manages to get construction/demolition going in 2015, then the subway's chances look dim.
 
So the new forum research poll came out, and does not look good for Ford (and Tory looks a bit concerning too). First Ford approval is at 38% (down from 46) . Being in the mid 40s is horrible for a sitting mayor. Getting into the 30s is Montreal mayor while in prison numbers.

The head to head of course is interesting
Chow 33% (down one but consistent) Tory 27% (up three, peaking) Ford 22% (down five, lowest point) Stintz 6% (consistent), Soknacki 5%(up one)
Problem with Ford is if he viewed as third place, He can't play the "fear of Chow" card because if Tory is leading or even with Ford numbers, they would vote for Tory not Ford as the alternative.

Another bad issue with Ford is that he and his supporters have aliened everybody who not in there 25% that I doubt he will get any soft Stintz or Soknnacki voters. If history shows that fourth and fifth place candidates will drop out or supporters will try to bet on a horse that can win. Not all there supporters but a good chunk. That why I think Chow 33% can grow but I doubt Ford even with his recent Tory jumpers going back to him will maybe get 30%. He might top out at 32% at best case scenario for him.

An interesting poll is to look Chow/Tory/Ford 3way. As that normally happens as the other candidates drop out or supporters find "best possible" contender. This scenerio we have
Chow 40% (adding 7% of Stintz/Soknacki voters) Tory 29% (adding only 2% of S&S voters) Ford 25% (adding only 3% of S&S voters)
This is HUGE. This show Chow is the default (central) candidate compared to everybody else. she is gets more Stintz & Soknacki than Ford and Tory combined. Traditionally with winner ends up with at least 40%. The vote splitting conern, I always thought was over-rated. As the election comes closer people vote for the horse they think can win. Chow hitting 40% is big. Also Tory and Ford not able to grab any Stintz and Soknacki voters so far is telling. It predictable with Ford, surprised about Tory lack of appeal.
 
jusbokeh said:
How much money has chow gotten from hong Kong so far?
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$0. Canadian citizens owning property in Toronto can vote (thus explaining Chow talking to HK media), but they cannot donate a penny since they do not live in Ontario. I, meanwhile, can donate to any municipal candidate in Ontario I choose (and get a rebate to boot) simply by being a resident in Ontario. As a Permanent Resident, I cannot vote in this or any other election.
 
edmundoconnor said:
$0. Canadian citizens owning property in Toronto can vote (thus explaining Chow talking to HK media), but they cannot donate a penny since they do not live in Ontario. I, meanwhile, can donate to any municipal candidate in Ontario I choose (and get a rebate to boot) simply by being a resident in Ontario. As a Permanent Resident, I cannot vote in this or any other election.
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Andy Byford is an Englishman. Took the job of Chief Operating Officer for the TTC in November, 2011. Became Chief General Manager, renamed the position to Chief Executive Officer, in March, 2012. Cannot vote, not a Canadian Citizen (needs to be here at least 3 years). Prefers a "pro-transit" mayor. See link. He can donate, however.
 
A few more things from the poll:

Tory's approval rating is at 69%. That's really bad news for Chow. Though it could be that Tory has benefitted from being 3rd place and out of the spotlight while everyone beats up on Ford and Chow.

Education (or lack thereof) has always been one of the stronger predictors of Ford support. But this poll shows Ford approval among people with a high school education or less at 60%!! Put that in contrast to his 38% approval overall (pretty much his lowest approval ever).
 
I'm surprised that many Stintz/Socknaki voters would move to Chow since they're more right on the spectrum than Chow.
 
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