Toronto Ontario Line 3 | ?m | ?s

[diminutive]

It's also pretty damn clear he did not consult with Metrolinx about it first either. Having them on-board is essential for this plan to have a hope.

How on earth would he get Metrolinx on board? At this point he's just a private citizen, so why would ML or QP bother to take a stance either way?

It's an election, he's promising something if he's elected, which all the Provincial parties are doing as well. Depending on who wins the elections, then they will try to reconcile their various campaign promises.

It's a bit much to expect a municipal candidate to come up with a fully negotiated solution to something like this prior to even being elected. Even incumbent governments, who've been in power for multiple terms, are coming to the table with little more than vague promises of future service (e.g. the Murray Express to London).

Very true, especially since his plan is basically usurping all of one GO REX line and key portions of several others.

The GO REX network isn't a real thing though; it's a campaign promise by the Liberals (and Hudak? I forget who's promised what). Everybody running for Mayor and Premier are making various promises. After their elections, they'll be responsible for reconciling them with the preferences of other levels of government.

I seriously doubt QP or City Hall would somehow manage to build both a GO REX network AND this RER like line parallel to each other. Obviously the two projects will have to be reconciled. When that's happening, I think it's important to have City officials be clear that a real GO REX (or wtv the nom du jour is) needs more than X-trains per hour. It needs frequent station spacing, it needs fare integration and it needs service integration.

 

[gweed123]

The GO REX network isn't a real thing though; it's a campaign promise by the Liberals (and Hudak? I forget who's promised what). Everybody running for Mayor and Premier are making various promises. After their elections, they'll be responsible for reconciling them with the preferences of other levels of government.

I seriously doubt QP or City Hall would somehow manage to build both a GO REX network AND this RER like line parallel to each other. Obviously the two projects will have to be reconciled. When that's happening, I think it's important to have City officials be clear that a real GO REX (or wtv the nom du jour is) needs more than X-trains per hour. It needs frequent station spacing, it needs fare integration and it needs service integration.

GO REX as an operations 'banner' isn't a real thing, but the infrastructure required to create it (electrification) is very real. Metrolinx has released several studies on electrification, and even proposed a phasing plan: http://www.gotransit.com/electrification/en/current_study/docs/ElectrificationStudyHighlights.pdf.

There may be variations between what Metrolinx has officially studied, what the Ontario Liberals are proposing, and what John Tory is proposing, but I would venture to say that they have more in common than they do differences. They all assume frequent, electrified GO service with additional stops. The variations are what lines are to be electrified, and when.

I would expect that the reconciliation between the three parties (should the elected two win) would be pretty quick to fall into place. It's a far cry from the 2010 election where the visions for transit between the three were nearly diametrically opposed. I think the compromise will probably end up being this:

The official timetable for Metrolinx is electrifying the Lakeshore and Kitchener lines first. The Liberals want all lines electrified, so that accelerates the timeline. Tory wants what is in essence an electrification of the Stouffville line + a bit of the Kitchener line + a new spur line. I would expect the first two to be easy to reconcile. The spur line will probably be dropped in favour of the Eglinton LRT instead.

 

[rbt]

How on earth would he get Metrolinx on board? At this point he's just a private citizen, so why would ML or QP bother to take a stance either way?

It's an election, he's promising something if he's elected...

Right. He's promising something which is impossible for a Mayor to deliver. He might as well promise to build a theme park at Darlington Nuclear or a new garbage dump at Square One.

Metrolinx needs to be on board when he gets elected. Some pleasantries as a candidate are typically extended to ensure a working partnership is viable.


Also, candidates frequently consult with the agencies on technical matters and get public technical information. They won't say whether a plan is good or bad on the record, but they will be able to provide a list of problems (technical/jurisdiction). Staff, of course, are also able to act as consultants on a plan as private citizens in their spare time if they choose to do so; again disclosing only public information. Again, it's not official but it establishes a working relationship and helps ensure the plan being campaigned on is actually feasible.

Staff hate having to turn down something due to technical difficulties that some numnuts spent a year pumping.

The restrictions for MPP candidates during elections do not apply at a municipal level; and even those only apply to first-hand access. Tory may not know that though since he still seems to be applying for Premier rather than Mayor.

 

[diminutive]

Right. He's promising something which is impossible for a Mayor to deliver. He might as well promise to build a theme park at Darlington Nuclear or a new garbage dump at Square One.

Just because it requires Provincial cooperation doesn't mean it's impossible for the Mayor to advocate for it... Look at the impact Rob Ford's election had on the Province's LRT plans. The Province has actually been remarkably sensitive to what the City asks for, considering that the Province could in theory do whatever it wants.

Any major transit project in the City will require provincial cooperation. I've hardly done an exhaustive survey, but all candidates' plans involve assistance from higher levels of government.

Also, candidates regularly consult with the agencies on technical matters and give them a heads-up that they wish to make changes and get technical advice. They won't say whether it's good or bad, but they (or their consultants) will be able to give advice on technical problems, jurisdiction problems, and cost just as you might receive if you were a lobbyist.

You specifically said Tory hadn't got ML "on board," which is a pretty high standard given the flux at QP and City Hall. I'm not sure who would get 'on board' with anything at this point.

Either way, there is absolutely no way I can vote for him now. His teams research and knowledge on municipal matters seems to rival Ford's.

How you vote is your business, but I don't see what's so obviously idiotic about the proposal. Like everyone else keeps saying, it's mostly an incremental change to the frequent service GO proposals which keeps floating around. There's a limit to how much specificity is needed at this point, given how embryonic everything is.

Presumably if he got elected, and if a somewhat transit-friendly govt emerged in QP, then the business of figuring out how you'd relate Tory's priorities (frequent station spacing, fare integration, frequent service) with QP/ML's priorities.

P.S. I'd also add that this proposal isn't anywhere near as left field as everyone is imagining. Similar proposals have appeared numerous times before. Most recently, the Provincial Transit Investment Panel was dealing with the idea of a 'Big U' to better serve some employment areas, which proposed a similar line to the one Tory has. There was also the proposal by Andre Sorensen, which the TTC has apparently consulted w/ML about, for a DRL-rail corridor service. Not to say the proposals are perfect, or without need of serious alterations, but I don't understand why people are seeing Tory's campaign proposal as so totally left field.

P.S.2: SM sourced this prelim route from Ana Bailao a while ago. Not that this is final, or good, or anything, but clearly Tory isn't the first person to have though along these lines.

 

[rbt]

Just because it requires Provincial cooperation doesn't mean it's impossible for the Mayor to advocate for it... Look at the impact Rob Ford's election had on the Province's LRT plans. The Province has actually been remarkably sensitive to what the City asks for, considering that the Province could in theory do whatever it wants.

...

You specifically said Tory hadn't got ML "on board," which is a pretty high standard given the flux at QP and City Hall. I'm not sure who would get 'on board' with anything at this point.

Right. Some staff at Metrolinx will need to be on-side with this and tell the Minister/provincial government that it's a good idea. The line on the map is a line on the map; it's the conflict points with Metrolinx's own long-term plans, the Toronto only nature, the fare integration (again, Toronto only it seems), among other things that make this a political nightmare and infeasible in any reasonable time frame. It's suitable to plan for 5 years then kill; it only works if Hudak gets a majority and kills Metrolinx's expansion plans.

Hudak's intention to have TTC staff take-over Metrolinx (reverse take-over, name remains Metrolinx) helps significantly.


Believe it or not, Ford had a crap-ton of Metrolinx staff on his side as far as building less with increased segregation goes. They really weren't fans of middle-of-the-street LRT. Miller was actually the one who hardballed them, which makes it all the more fascinating that Miller's plan squeaked through mostly unscathed despite neither side wanting it after Ford was elected.

Ford was such a dud at selling the adjustments (or choosing a feasible component for the city to tackle) that it reverted back to something neither side is happy with.

P.S.2: SM sourced this prelim route from Ana Bailao a while ago. Not that this is final, or good, or anything, but clearly Tory isn't the first person to have though along these lines.

Don't forget the York Region's I-Metro-E plan too.

 

[diminutive]

Right. Some staff at Metrolinx will need to be on-side with this and tell the Minister/provincial government that it's a good idea. The line on the map is a line on the map; it's the conflict points with Metrolinx's own long-term plans, the Toronto only nature, the fare integration (again, Toronto only it seems), among other things that make this a political nightmare and infeasible in any reasonable time frame. It's suitable to plan for 5 years then kill; it only works if Hudak gets a majority and puts TTC in charge of regional rail (reverse take-over, TTC staff will significantly outnumber GO/Metrolinx even if the organization is called Metrolinx).

I'm not seeing what you think is so politically contentious about Tory's proposal from QP's point of view, and certainly don't see why you think it would need some kind of huge organizational switcheroo.

Smart Track is definitely at the line-on-map stage, but so is everything else. ML and QP have been extremely vague in what they envision for GO. Terms like REX and electrification keep getting thrown around, but the service scenarios presented in the original electrification papers have almost nothing in common with the EMUs-all-day-err-day (to St Catharines?) idea which popped up right before the election. So, what are ML priorities? Who the hell knows? It's basically a political tool for QP to make its decisions look neutral, and QP only cares about looking good.

Everything is highly flexible at this point. At first glance, it seems perfectly feasible to accommodate both a RER/Metro like service along the rail corridors as well as a faster Regional/Intercity service. Certainly the rest of the world manages to do it.

 

[ehlow]

I think Tory's plan is the first to go west on Eglinton to the Mississauga office areas though.

 

[JasonParis]

And frankly, there's some sense to that as it is a huge employment area. Is there sense though in going so preciously close to Pearson without actually servicing it?

 

[ehlow]

And frankly, there's some sense to that as it is a huge employment area. Is there sense though in going so preciously close to Pearson without actually servicing it?

Yeah, I feel 3 underserved employment areas are:
-Mississauga corp center
-Markham near 407 & 404
-Liberty Village and King & Bathurst

Even though the first two are characterized by seas of parking lots near highways which obviously isn't conducive to transit, I still feel like people would take transit because rush hour traffic is so bad.

 

[rbt]

I'm not seeing what you think is so politically contentious about Tory's proposal from QP's point of view, and certainly don't see why you think it would need some kind of huge organizational switcheroo.

A couple of these are surmountable. Dealing with all of them from a lowly position like the mayors office giving direction to Metrolinx will make it nearly impossible and will eat up Tory's entire 4-year term with barely an EA started. Some are going to run head-on with Hudak, like subsidizations of the tickets.

1) There's only 6 tracks in the western part and Metrolinx has plans for all of them. Those old 12-car express take a lot of track time which the Liberal 6-car EMUs don't. A mix of VIA, UPX, Diesel GO, and this high frequency EMU isn't going to function well.

2) 15 minute frequencies is massively under capacity as a DRL solution for peak-period. 6-car EMUs will need to hit 4 minute frequencies to carry DRL projections during rush, and likely well past that due to the additional coverage. So, we're talking closer to 3 minute frequencies on launch day and possibly double that within 20 years. Not unheard of for TTC but targeting 2 minute frequencies is way outside the comfort zone for GO.

The Metrolinx (REX) plan dealt with this by providing less-frequent service on many lines rather than trying to ram it all through on a single line.

3) The price tag presented appears entirely random which indicates a general lack of research.

4) GO hates big projects which open with an expected service level. If it really is a $8B project with expectation of serving as a DRL from opening day, they'll throw a fit. Georgetown is already well outside their comfort zone and that didn't include very much in the way of a service commitment. Guarantees are high-risk for project management and Chong's incremental only expansion style still rules at Metrolinx.

5) Substantial subsidizations are required to run at a TTC fare (including transfers I assume). There's still a lot of old GO management that dislike running subsidized service precisely because subsidies are easily removed and need to be fought for annually. Second to this, it opens a huge can of worms with how municipal borders will be handled. I-Metro-E sidestepped this problem by not requiring integration with the TTC. The Liberal plan is similar in this respect, it may or may not integrate; we don't know how.

A recession will likely occur over the next few years (often every 7 to 9 years, 2008 being the last). This is going to really hamper subsidy discussions.

6) Optics of buying back recently sold Richview land. Most former mayors quietly move on and observe from a distance. I somehow doubt that Ford will quietly move on and this specifically attacks something he pushed through.


Something like this really needs to come from the province or one of the provinces corporations to actually happen on a reasonable time scale. Tory doesn't have nearly the political capital Ford did at the beginning. I predict if Tory wins in the fall that in 2018 we see him running on an `I'll continue working toward starting construction on the crosstown line` platform.

 

[syn]

P.S. I'd also add that this proposal isn't anywhere near as left field as everyone is imagining. Similar proposals have appeared numerous times before. Most recently, the Provincial Transit Investment Panel was dealing with the idea of a 'Big U' to better serve some employment areas, which proposed a similar line to the one Tory has. There was also the proposal by Andre Sorensen, which the TTC has apparently consulted w/ML about, for a DRL-rail corridor service. Not to say the proposals are perfect, or without need of serious alterations, but I don't understand why people are seeing Tory's campaign proposal as so totally left field.

P.S.2: SM sourced this prelim route from Ana Bailao a while ago. Not that this is final, or good, or anything, but clearly Tory isn't the first person to have though along these lines.

I think what surprises people is that a major politician has taken notice and made it the backbone of his transit plan.

The idea is a good one overall, I'm just not sure why it'll cost $8 billion and why there are no stops south of Bloor/west of University.

With some tweaks this could be an excellent solution to easing congestion around the city.

 

[junctionist]

What's interesting about Tory's SmartTrack line is that it brings something to the 905 as well. Politically, it's useful to toss the 905 a bone since 905ers affect Toronto politics to an extent. They speak out on certain issues and influence the suburban parts of the city in particular. From a practical point of view, the line is great for Torontonians who get easy transit access to the 905, where there are many employers.

 

[W. K. Lis]

What's interesting about Tory's SmartTrack line is that it brings something to the 905 as well. Politically, it's useful to toss the 905 a bone since 905ers affect Toronto politics to an extent. They speak out on certain issues and influence the suburban parts of the city in particular. From a practical point of view, the line is great for Torontonians who get easy transit access to the 905, where there are many employers.

The 905ers and other Ontarians do get a tax break by contributing to Toronto candidates.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Other than the extra stops, I'm still failing to see why this proposal is such a big deal. It's basically the GO Electrification plan.

 

[innsertnamehere]

it presumably involves higher frequencies and has an insane sticker price included in it.