What does the new Council look like?

[Saturnine]

Does anyone else think Scarborough councillors are going to be the ones who decide the biggest votes? By my guesstimates I'd say there's about 16-17 even on opposing sides (Ford Country vs. the NDP and friends in condensed terms) and 11-13 who will go where they're convinced to go. Yes, some will be easier to convince for either side, and I'd say of that dozen or so more are predisposed to conservative political views, but a lot of them are in Scarborough (maybe I shouldn't be assigning some of the Etobicoke conservatives into Ford's pocket, but I am). If someone (Michael Thompson is my bet) can get the righty-moderates co-ordinated on major issues, they're going to be the deciders. Of course if they agree with Rob and co. and give up the swing status, it's going to be a steamroll, but I wouldn't assume that's going to happen. And yes, it's super simplistic and I know very little about a 3-4 of the new people, but I liked the conversation, even if it's flawed, and joined up to throw in my two cents.

Oh, and I'm secretly praying that Doug Holyday wants to be speaker. My guess is it'll be Luby (although she may hate it and want out, I have no idea really), but can anyone else imagine how insane council sessions would be if Doug were speaker? If not him, then right now I want Moeser, Palacio, or Cho. Fine minds to arbitrate the nuances of the finer points of city hall procedure and we'd be able to set a record for challenging the chair in the first session. I can't believe we finally had an election where incumbents were ousted all over and those three kept their jobs.

 

[Simple Man]

Best way for Ford to cool the tension is to put moderates in key roles.

 

[King of Kensington]

Here's how I see the composition of council:

Ward 1 - Vincent Cristani, the only "Rob Ford Party" candidate (Gus Cusimano in Ward 9 just fell short of taking out Maria Augimeri) to succeed, over Suzan Hall - rightward shift

Ward 13 - Sarah Doucette over Bill Saundercook - leftward shift

Ward 15 - Josh Colle beats Rob Davis - while endorsed by Moscoe, he won't be as left, so rightward shift

Ward 18 - Ana Bailao over Kevin Beaulieu - rightward shift, though it's unlikely she'll be in Ford territory

Ward 22 - Josh Matlow over Chris Sellors - Matlow is probably a leftward shift from Walker

Ward 25 - Jaye Robinson seems Kathleen Wynne-ish politically - a leftward shift from the Tory Cliff Jenkins

Ward 27 - Kristyn Wong-Tam over Ken Chan - leftward shift, KWT is to the left of Kyle Rae (and while Rae was increasingly compromised and opportunistic towards the Libs, I think Ken Chan would have been to the right of Rae).

Ward 29 - Mary Fragedakis over Jane Pitfield and Jennifer Wood (thanks for running!) - significant leftward shift from Case Ootes

Ward 32 - Mary Margaret McMahon crushes Sandra Bussin - rightward shift, but like Ana Bailao it's unlikely she'll be in Ford territory

Ward 35 - Michelle Berardinetti over Adrian Heaps - rightward shift

Ward 36 - Gary Crawford ovr Bob Spencer - rightward shift from Brian Ashton (but Spencer would have been to the left of Ashton).

 

[Eug]

And Ashton had already long since broken ranks with the Miller left.

 

[MetroMan]

Excellent analysis King of Kensington. Overall, I think we have a similar leftist council and maybe even a bit of a shift to the left, considering that some of the Righty's were replaced with centrists.

I don't think they'll let Ford get rid of social programs. The good news for the Waterfront is that both Adam Vaughan and Pam McConnell were re-elected with significant margins. Landslide victories for both. They're not going to settle for a destruction of the waterfront plans that are the future of their wards. Both of them have a lot of left and centre support to ensure that their constituent's (and citizens at large) interests are protected.

With cooler minds 24hours later, looking at the make up of council, it's not the disaster that we were terrified about.

 

[taal]

It's probably been stated before but what can a mayor of Toronto pass without council approval ?

 

[Eug]

It's probably been stated before but what can a mayor of Toronto pass without council approval ?

Well, not much of course, but it won't look good when plans put forward to save money, esp. by the mayor, are constantly overturned by the left leaning council members. There will have to be some level of compromise, or they may risk losing their seats at the next election (depending on the ward).

 

[jn_12]

Well, not much of course, but it won't look good when plans put forward to save money, esp. by the mayor, are constantly overturned by the left leaning council members. There will have to be some level of compromise, or they may risk losing their seats at the next election (depending on the ward).

I'm not so sure that's the case. People vote in their councilors to represent their ward. If something is deemed as not being goo for the contituents of their ward, then I can't see why the voting public would be mad at the councilor for standing his/her ground. If anything, there's one mayor and 44 councilors. A good mayor should be finding a balance that works for everyone, and anything constantly short of that would suggest that the mayor isn't fit for the position.

 

[MetroMan]

I've spoken to Ana Bailao and I don't believe she is right wing. She's young and is compassionate towards social issues. The ward did move to the right but only because Giambrone was as far left as you could go in council. I very much doubt that she will go along with Ford on many issues.

Given that council is now mostly left or centre, who do you think will make up Ford's inner circle? I can't think of many. Who wants to take a stab at it?

 

[MetroMan]

A good mayor should be finding a balance that works for everyone, and anything constantly short of that would suggest that the mayor isn't fit for the position.

Which brings us to the major reason why Ford was never fit to be Mayor. He's demonstrated time and time again that he can't work with others. I think the onus will be on him to prove us all wrong. If he keeps proposing illogically right wing motions to a predominantly left/centre council, then he will be seen as the one who can't get anything done.

Do people really remember that Ford was the obstructionist on council? No. They just elected him Mayor. If council blocks everything Ford proposes, he will take the heat for not doing anything for 4 years.

We might have gotten Ford as the face of this city (oh god...) but we were saved by the make up of this city council. When he was declared the winner, I immediately went to see who was leading in council races and I was pleasantly surprised. This wasn't a Toronto shifting to the right, it was a city throwing out the incumbents, left AND right.

 

[Eug]

I'm not so sure that's the case. People vote in their councilors to represent their ward. If something is deemed as not being goo for the contituents of their ward, then I can't see why the voting public would be mad at the councilor for standing his/her ground. If anything, there's one mayor and 44 councilors. A good mayor should be finding a balance that works for everyone, and anything constantly short of that would suggest that the mayor isn't fit for the position.

True, to a certain extent, but having a right wing mayor will push the council in general to the right. Like it or not, the councillors realize that there is a certain mandate from the voters, even if some of voted-in members are left of centre. Remember, several wards have very few viable candidates, so much of the voting is skewed toward those who are potentially viable, whether they be left of right.

P.S. I'm surprised nobody's mentioned it yet, but Doug Ford is donating his salary as councillor to charity.

 

[MetroMan]

P.S. I'm surprised nobody's mentioned it yet, but Doug Ford is donating his salary as councillor to charity.

Well, while I acknowledge that it's a nice gesture, I would hope so: he will continue to be the President of Deco Labels & Tags. Councillor will be his part time job, just as it was for Rob.

 

[Eug]

Well, while I acknowledge that it's a nice gesture, I would hope so: he will continue to be the President of Deco Labels & Tags. Councillor will be his part time job, just as it was for Rob.

Yep. This is a very smart and pre-emptive political move. Other councillors won't be able to criticize him for not giving up his other job. Ford comes out smelling like roses, while preaching the same fiscal restraint mantra.

 

[Saturnine]

Given that council is now mostly left or centre, who do you think will make up Ford's inner circle? I can't think of many. Who wants to take a stab at it?

The happy as pigs in poop:
R.Ford
V.Crisanti
D.Ford
L.Luby
D.Holyday
F.Nunziata
D.Shiner
J.Parker
D.Minnan-Wong
M.Del Grande
N.Kelly

The Easily convinced:
P.Milczyn
M.Grimes
J.Pasternak*
F.DiGiorgio
M.Berardinetti*
G.Crawford*
R.Moeser

Starred are new councilors that are new and there based on what I've heard a very very little bit about.

IMO the top 11 are going to be pushing forward with a Ford agenda as long as they're included in the process. Many do have enough of a mind of their own it won't be a simple Rob Ford show. Still, they'll be happy with many of the things he wants to accomplish.

The next seven are ones I'm fairly certain will be in the camp or close to it, especially as long as the political tides appear to be behind him.

If he plays his cards well and hits a couple solid doubles early in the term, he may get used to having majority support for any number of things. I hope he stays his intransigent self, but he campaigned so well I have to assume he'll know how to campaign among the 44 as well.

 

[MetroMan]

Yep. This is a very smart and pre-emptive political move. Other councillors won't be able to criticize him for not giving up his other job. Ford comes out smelling like roses, while preaching the same fiscal restraint mantra.

I still don't think he deserved the job. He barely campaigned in the ward and doesn't even know much about the workings of city council. He said so himself live on CTV last night when he mentioned that he looks forward to his brother taking him around and teaching him the job. Of course he was elected by name recognition alone. Now that's not to say he won't do a good job, but I sure as hell wouldn't want him getting paid a full salary to learn on the job and do it part time.