TTC: Sheppard Subway Expansion (Speculative)

[gweed123]

By definition, an express interregional service cannot handle local transit demand. No transit mode can be fast enough for long-haul trips, and at the same time have frequent stops to address local demand. GO trains do not handle local demand at all, nonetherless there is enough long-range demand to justify their existence.

So, the question is really whether an express east-west rail service can attract enough demand to justify construction and operation of such service.

In my view, such service along Hwy 401 cannot be justified in the near future (next ~20 years or so), because of its high cost and because of the difficulty of getting the riders to / from the express stations. Indeed, most of the prospective riders would have to use local feeder service at both ends of their trip, unlike riders of the GO trains to Union who can just walk from Union to their offices.

However, such east-west express service might become feasible in the longer term, as the regional population grows and the feeder route network improves.

This is only half true. On their own, you are correct that express services cannot effectively cater to local demand. However, you are ignoring the fact that if the stops on the express line are properly serviced by efficient and frequent LRT and BRT lines, that local demand can be effectively catered to. Just because you aren't within walking distance of a GO station doesn't mean that you can't access it.

It's not about individual lines, it's about the network.

 

[vz64]

Maybe to save money the Sheppard line can become a sort of "North Cross-town Express line"? It is sparsely stationed now, so maybe we need a long tunnel to the SCC with one intermediate stop and a long tunnel to Downsview with no stops? So, both time and money will be saved.

 

[TrickyRicky]

Perhaps I am simply just naive to the technicalities of subway construction, but I have always wondered why alternative solutions such as vz64's are never proposed? Why not, say if you have a tunnel boring machine, run tunnel construction operations continuously as part of your annual budget and drop expensive stations in in the future as additional capital becomes available?

 

[Rainforest]

^ I don't think it is very practical to build long subway tunnels without stations. The tunnel costs quite a bit even without the stations added (the cost of digging, lining, building the tracks, electrical and signal systems, ventilations, emergency exits etc.)

City subway lines often have to be built underground because they go through dense parts of cities, but with a medium stop spacing (anything between 300 m and 2 km) they can attract a lot of riders per km. Alternatively, intercity / regional rail lines are normally placed in exclusive surface corridors; they get fewer riders per km with their stop spacing of 4 km and up, but also cost less (per km) to build.

If you build long tunnels but set stations very far apart, you combine the disadvantages of both modes: high cost of subways with lower rider density of intercity rail.

So, if a cross-region express rail line is ever built in the vicinity of Hwy 401, it should use 2 lanes of 401 and run mostly on surface. It may incorporate the existing underground segment of Sheppard subway, and whatever extensions (to Vic Park, or to Donsview) might be built by that time, to save costs. But it should not be tunneled parallel to 401 all the way, as the cost of such tunnel would be astronomical.

 

[Paleo]

This viewpoint assumes that everybody getting on at Yonge is due for a destination south of Bloor. They maybe heading south, but they may not all be heading South of Bloor. There's bound to be riders who would take Sheppard from STC because they are due for points closer to Sheppard (south or north).

In any event though, that's not the point of the Sheppard line. It's just a happy byproduct that it feeds Yonge. But that's not its main purpose. It's supposed to be a Cross-town. For example, how many York U students do you think would take the line if it ran from STC to Downsview? I am willing to bet 10k riders just from York U students in Scarborough per day at least. How many UTSC and Centennial college students in North York and Etobicoke would suddenly find their campuses significantly more accessible by transit if they didn't have to trundle down to Bloor or Eglinton to get across town?

This goes back to the point about expanded GO service. We do know that most of the people on Sheppard board trains to go south once they arrive at Yonge. The rails are there to provide fast service to midtown and downtown. Eglinton-SRT will be there for people going uptown.

You can hold out hope that employment growth at NYCC or STC might one day grow to make it a subway worthy destination if you want but I am not holding my breath there. The jobs are going to industrial parks in the outer suburbs and Sheppard subway or not isn't going to help serve those trips much if at all.

Capital costs being what they are, simply are way too high to be building underground express railways. High traffic subway corridors have to have a lot of stations and anything other than an express is simply way too slow for a crosstown line. The old plans for GO ALRT would be much better suited for this.

Re: York U that can be debunked. There aren't nearly enough people at York University that come from Toronto as you think there are and the other two campuses are much smaller.

 

[vz64]

^ I don't think it is very practical to build long subway tunnels without stations. The tunnel costs quite a bit even without the stations added (the cost of digging, lining, building the tracks, electrical and signal systems, ventilations, emergency exits etc.)

City subway lines often have to be built underground because they go through dense parts of cities, but with a medium stop spacing (anything between 300 m and 2 km) they can attract a lot of riders per km. Alternatively, intercity / regional rail lines are normally placed in exclusive surface corridors; they get fewer riders per km with their stop spacing of 4 km and up, but also cost less (per km) to build.

If you build long tunnels but set stations very far apart, you combine the disadvantages of both modes: high cost of subways with lower rider density of intercity rail.

So, if a cross-region express rail line is ever built in the vicinity of Hwy 401, it should use 2 lanes of 401 and run mostly on surface. It may incorporate the existing underground segment of Sheppard subway, and whatever extensions (to Vic Park, or to Donsview) might be built by that time, to save costs. But it should not be tunneled parallel to 401 all the way, as the cost of such tunnel would be astronomical.

I agree it is not the most practical solution, but considering the stubbornness of RF to complete the Sheppard line, I assume he wouldn't mind shaving around $1bln (say, trimming 5-6 stations) from the total cost. And he would claim that he fulfilled his election promise...

 

[SlickFranky]

I agree it is not the most practical solution, but considering the stubbornness of RF to complete the Sheppard line, I assume he wouldn't mind shaving around $1bln (say, trimming 5-6 stations) from the total cost. And he would claim that he fulfilled his election promise...

I think the Mayors would have a hard time finding private investors for a line like that...and as much as he wants to build it, Robbie's been pretty vocal on the evils of using public money for, well, basically anything.

 

[M II A II R II K]

Maybe there's an alternative that can be set up from the top down

Infrastructure Bank: http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/07/news/economy/jobs_infrastructure/


.....

Working through the I-Bank, the government would encourage private investment by providing cheap loans and loan guarantees. But it would only fund a fraction of the overall cost, just enough to attract private investors who would provide most of the financing. States and municipalities would get much needed upgrades of bridges and roads. The local economies would get a stimulus boost from more people working. And the lion's share of the money would come from major institutional investors -- pension funds, hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds from other countries.

Many don't invest now because even when municipal bonds are sold to help fund a project, those tax-free offerings are not attractive to many deep-pocket investors not subject to income tax, such as pension funds. Even when a project is expected to generate tolls or other revenue, there is little way now to offer investors a piece of that action to attract them in. Michael Likosky, senior fellow at New York University, said an I-Bank is the only way to generate the funding for needed infrastructure projects in this time of tight government spending.

.....

 

[kEiThZ]

Just want to make a point about diverting funds.

The funds from Sheppard aren't being re-purposed for a Sheppard subway. The funds have been diverted to bury Eglinton the whole way. This should be kept in mind when discussing the future of Sheppard and spending on the corridor.

Any funding that goes towards Sheppard now is new money.

 

[gweed123]

Just want to make a point about diverting funds.

The funds from Sheppard aren't being re-purposed for a Sheppard subway. The funds have been diverted to bury Eglinton the whole way. This should be kept in mind when discussing the future of Sheppard and spending on the corridor.

Any funding that goes towards Sheppard now is new money.

The provincial funds have, the federal funds haven't. Those funds have to stay on Sheppard, unless the deal is renegotiated. As it stands now, that money is set to expire in 2014 (I believe, +/- a year).

 

[nfitz]

Those funds have to stay on Sheppard, unless the deal is renegotiated.

The deal would have to be renegotiated one way or another, as it's for the Sheppard East Transit City project, not the subway project.

Part of the problem, was construction was supposed to be mostly completed by 2013. So if funding is transferred to a different project, the money will be spend in a completely different time frame.

If I was province, I'd negotiate to have it transferred to the Crosstown line, which is where the provincial share of funding for the Sheppard project all went. Perhaps it could allow them to build the short extension from McCowan to Sheppard that got deferred. At least it would get some transit to that piece of Sheppard.

 

[gweed123]

The deal would have to be renegotiated one way or another, as it's for the Sheppard East Transit City project, not the subway project.

Part of the problem, was construction was supposed to be mostly completed by 2013. So if funding is transferred to a different project, the money will be spend in a completely different time frame.

If I was province, I'd negotiate to have it transferred to the Crosstown line, which is where the provincial share of funding for the Sheppard project all went. Perhaps it could allow them to build the short extension from McCowan to Sheppard that got deferred. At least it would get some transit to that piece of Sheppard.

That would be a reasonable possibility, for sure. That extension would probably be in the neighbourhood of about $300 million anyway. If not, send the extension to Centennial or however far you can get with $300 million.

 

[nfitz]

That would be a reasonable possibility, for sure. That extension would probably be in the neighbourhood of about $300 million anyway. If not, send the extension to Centennial or however far you can get with $300 million.

Probably a bit more than that ... but they seem to think that there's $400-million extra. If the Liberals get re-elected, they'll be more inclined to play hardball with Ford, and be looking to their own project, rather than Sheppard subway. I'd be expecting the bill from the province for cancelling Transit City to show up then too ...

 

[EnviroTO]

The province has already stated they aren't charging cancellation fees, the amount spent comes from their original commitment.

 

[gweed123]

Probably a bit more than that ... but they seem to think that there's $400-million extra. If the Liberals get re-elected, they'll be more inclined to play hardball with Ford, and be looking to their own project, rather than Sheppard subway. I'd be expecting the bill from the province for cancelling Transit City to show up then too ...

I think the hardball point is definitely true. If the Liberals win a majority, or more likely an NDP-backed minority, they'll probably tell Ford to stick his subway where the sun don't shine. Ford won't be able to put up much of a fight, because when that happens he'll be waist deep in the shit storm that will have erupted at City Hall over the 2012 budget.