drum118
Superstar
My outlook for 2018 wasn't positive in early 2018 as well the end of 2017 based on BBD track recorder, but willing to sit back to see if I was going to be wrong. Up to Sept, it looked like I was going to be wrong, but the wheels started to fall off.To meet with some nebulous unpublicized delivery schedule - perhaps.
But what TTC has been reporting every month, is the number of cars in service. And the target TTC has been saying to the media has been 64 cars in service. The first car in service in 2018 was 4458. So car 64 in service for the year should be car 4521. If 4570 and 4571 do come from Kingston, then it's car 4519 that's must be delivered and put into service before New Year's.
Correct, if 4514 is the last to enter service this month.
I'm guessing we'll get a surge of car deliveries before Christmas, but too late to push into service, given the Christmas holidays and too many cars to process at once.
I'm also guessing that they'll get positive spin from TTC if they don't achieve 64 in-service, but the 64th car is already delivered by year end. And really, if they are that close to their schedule - I'll be thrilled!
No matter which way you cut it, both delivery and in service numbers are going to be short like past years and look forward to the spin doctors reports on this as well 2019 outlook. I had my misgiving for 2019 based on this year schedule as well 2017 early this year and will say we will not see 4603 in service until 2020. We may not see that car until 2020, along with a number of other cars.
If 4514 does make service this year, still got 90 to go into service as well retest all the cars going to QC. Have added 4401 since it will be a new production car and hasn't seen service yet.
Its a guessing game now as to how many cars will be ship this year, as well how many will be in service based on current turn around; what is on hand and what we see next week. If the cars can enter service sooner than 15 days, we well still be short for this year, but not as bad as it could be compare to seeing less if it takes longer than 15 days or having no cars on hand.
Between new cars arriving and returning cars from repairs, TTC staff will be hard press getting all the new cars into service in 2019. Then there is the maintenance of the fleet as well including damage ones.
With Ford in power, TTC and Toronto in for a Royal Screw job, with transit riders been kick to the curb. This will apply to other systems as well.