TTC said 30. That looks like a typo from the Star.
The schedule did ramp up to a significantly increased production during 2017. It's not unreasonable to expect that they can still produce 9 more streetcars in the next 5 months; that only required the production of 2 more than 7 (4410-4416) produced during the same 5 months of 2016.
I use Bayesian statistics occasionally when kriging data - I can produce all sorts of strange results (as one can do with any types of stats!).
Though going to simpler stats, if you fit a trend line to the "days since previous delivery, starting with car 4406, there is a downard trend, despite the last couple of slower deliveries. Though one can debate the poor fit. I don't work with industrial production stats enough to analyse much deeper, having only completed some undergraduate courses in the area, and not practising in it.
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