Transit Fantasy Maps

[gweed123]

Dundas West and Dundas East are very different corridors. Dundas West only has 1/2 or 1/3 the ridership compared to Dundas East, and very little development potential as well.

I think people underestimate the transit ridership of Dundas a lot, east of Hurontario especially. Not just with these fantasy proposals, but also the City and MT and Metrolinx also. They don't seem to realize the huge amount of transit riders that are being carried through this corridor and the potential it has for higher order transit. During peak hours, the corridor already sees service at 4.5 minute frequency, half of the buses articulated, how much more ridership can you really expect with BRT? And that's before you take into account those 20 or so bus routes along Dundas in Etobicoke. It needs to be LRT or subway, Metrolinx is pushing for BRT, such a waste.

Dedicated lanes alone will speed things up, thereby increasing capacity. LRT may be warranted in the long term, but I think in the short to medium term BRT should be enough, especially once the Milton line is electrified.

On another note, here's an updated version of my Toronto map. I decided to split Phase 2 in half, and create a new Phase 3 for really long term projects.

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/43869799/MoveToronto_v6.pdf

 

[doady]

Dedicated lanes alone will speed things up, thereby increasing capacity. LRT may be warranted in the long term, but I think in the short to medium term BRT should be enough, especially once the Milton line is electrified.

Dedicated lanes do not increase capacity. They increase efficiency, i.e. less buses needed to provide the same frequency. Capacity is determined solely by the frequency and the size of the vehicles. And Dundas is already near its limit.

I don't think increased service on the Milton line wouldn't reduce ridership along Dundas at all. Dundas is a local corridor, Milton is regional - two different things. Would the 23 Lakeshore bus have higher ridership if there was no Lakeshore GO Train? I highly doubt that. An improved Milton Line would actually increase local transit ridership in Mississauga, including that of Dundas. The Hurontario LRT will increase the ridership of Dundas as well. BRT will not be enough to handle the increased demand along Dundas resulting from these new connections, let alone the increased demand generated by the Dundas BRT itself and future developments along the corridor.

And you can probably expect the demand for transit to increase a lot because the potential for increased ridership in Mississauga is very high. Local transit in Mississauga only has a mode split of 8%, compared to 25% for the City of Toronto. If the local transit mode split were even to increase to just 16%, that would represent a doubling of ridership right there. Buses along Dundas can't handle that sort of ridership increase.

I also question the feasibility and need of having an on-street BRT service operating from Burlington to Etobicoke (also proposed by Metrolinx), but that's another story.

 

[gweed123]

Dedicated lanes do not increase capacity. They increase efficiency, i.e. less buses needed to provide the same frequency. Capacity is determined solely by the frequency and the size of the vehicles. And Dundas is already near its limit.

If it takes the bus 1 hour to run the route now (just round numbers), and dedicated lanes reduces the trip time to 45 minutes, then you've just theoretically provided a 25% capacity boost to that line, assuming the number of vehicles is constant.

If the frequency is the constant, then yes you're right dedicated lanes don't provide any capacity increase. But if the number of vehicles is the constant, yes it does, because it allows you to run the same amount of buses more frequently, thereby increasing capacity.

I don't think increased service on the Milton line wouldn't reduce ridership along Dundas at all. Dundas is a local corridor, Milton is regional - two different things. Would the 23 Lakeshore bus have higher ridership if there was no Lakeshore GO Train? I highly doubt that. An improved Milton Line would actually increase local transit ridership in Mississauga, including that of Dundas. The Hurontario LRT will increase the ridership of Dundas as well. BRT will not be enough to handle the increased demand along Dundas resulting from these new connections, let alone the increased demand generated by the Dundas BRT itself and future developments along the corridor.

And you can probably expect the demand for transit to increase a lot because the potential for increased ridership in Mississauga is very high. Local transit in Mississauga only has a mode split of 8%, compared to 25% for the City of Toronto. If the local transit mode split were even to increase to just 16%, that would represent a doubling of ridership right there. Buses along Dundas can't handle that sort of ridership increase.

Do you think it may be worth it to extend the Queensway LRT (which I have currently terminating at Sherway) to Hurontario? There's a huge ROW along that route, which should make building an LRT fairly easy compared to most corridors. It would then interline with the Hurontario LRT up to MCC.

And I think a lot of the Dundas traffic is Kipling/Islington-bound traffic. More frequent service on the Milton line may change that dynamic.

I also question the feasibility and need of having an on-street BRT service operating from Burlington to Etobicoke (also proposed by Metrolinx), but that's another story.

It would definitely be a long route, but it's comparable to VIVA running service from Cornell to York U or Western Gateway. I would also imagine there would be quite a few routes using that same corridor (much like how Ottawa's BRT works).

 

[Dan416]

If it takes the bus 1 hour to run the route now (just round numbers), and dedicated lanes reduces the trip time to 45 minutes, then you've just theoretically provided a 25% capacity boost to that line, assuming the number of vehicles is constant.

If the frequency is the constant, then yes you're right dedicated lanes don't provide any capacity increase. But if the number of vehicles is the constant, yes it does, because it allows you to run the same amount of buses more frequently, thereby increasing capacity.



Do you think it may be worth it to extend the Queensway LRT (which I have currently terminating at Sherway) to Hurontario? There's a huge ROW along that route, which should make building an LRT fairly easy compared to most corridors. It would then interline with the Hurontario LRT up to MCC.

And I think a lot of the Dundas traffic is Kipling/Islington-bound traffic. More frequent service on the Milton line may change that dynamic.



It would definitely be a long route, but it's comparable to VIVA running service from Cornell to York U or Western Gateway. I would also imagine there would be quite a few routes using that same corridor (much like how Ottawa's BRT works).

gweed123 as much as I respect your opinion on Ottawa or eastern Toronto, you just don't know Mississauga very well. Most people on this board don't. doady does however. As does drum118.

While a Queensway LRT in Mississauga is a lovely fantasy, it's just that. Who would use it? Queensway in Mississauga is largely industrial and low density. It's got the ROW, yes, but it barely supports a bus.

Yet you ignore the second-busiest corridor in the city, which is Dundas. I find it mind-boggling that you'd honestly present Queensway as an alternative to Dundas. Higher Order Transit should follow the ridership, not the other way around.

And again, you're totally wrong about Dundas (or any other east-west nearby bus routes like Rathburn, Burnhamthorpe, Bloor, etc) being affected by more GO service along the Milton line. They are NOT interchangeable.

 

[gweed123]

gweed123 as much as I respect your opinion on Ottawa or eastern Toronto, you just don't know Mississauga very well. Most people on this board don't. doady does however. As does drum118.

While a Queensway LRT in Mississauga is a lovely fantasy, it's just that. Who would use it? Queensway in Mississauga is largely industrial and low density. It's got the ROW, yes, but it barely supports a bus.

Yet you ignore the second-busiest corridor in the city, which is Dundas. I find it mind-boggling that you'd honestly present Queensway as an alternative to Dundas. Higher Order Transit should follow the ridership, not the other way around.

And again, you're totally wrong about Dundas (or any other east-west nearby bus routes like Rathburn, Burnhamthorpe, Bloor, etc) being affected by more GO service along the Milton line. They are NOT interchangeable.

Fair enough. I'm just going by the Metrolinx Benefits Case (http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regiona...cases/Benefits_Case_Dundas_FINAL_June2010.pdf), which shows the peak demand at about 3,000 pphpd in 2021 (Kipling to Hurontario) for the LRT option, and around 2,900 for the full BRT option. For the rest of the corridor, full BRT has the highest ridership (Option 4). 2031 forecasts are 3,200 pphpd for LRT and 3,100 for BRT.

In the end, the proposal concluded that full BRT along the entire corridor would be the best option. It's the most cost-effective, and it would generate the overall highest ridership.

Coincidentally, the forecast for Dundas between Kipling and Hurontario is virtually identical to the 2031 forecasts for the Sheppard East LRT. The demand is questionable for an LRT on Sheppard East, and certainly there isn't enough demand for a subway. I'm just applying a consistent set of metrics here to determine what qualifies for what.

You are right that I don't have a tremendous amount of personal experience with transit in Mississauga. So I did what any professional would do: I referred to reports written by the people who have studied this intensively. I didn't find anything flawed with their analysis (unlike the Sheppard East or the Jane LRT reports), so I would tend to believe them. If you have anecdotal evidence that supports the assertion that BRT would be insufficient for the Dundas corridor through the eastern half of Mississauga, that's fine. But I'm just looking at the numbers, and they aren't exactly screaming "this must be LRT".

 

[TOareaFan]

Intersting discussion

And I think a lot of the Dundas traffic is Kipling/Islington-bound traffic. More frequent service on the Milton line may change that dynamic.

Isn't that a very good reason for servicing Dundas by a western extension of the BD subway? If that is the destination, and the current bus services are at/near capacity, it seems a logical jump to me. No?

I always wonder about why there seems so much support (not directed at any one poster specifically) for extending the YUS northward but resistance/reluctance to extending BD westward into Mississauga.

Not sure how more frequent Milton service would divert people from Dundas if the destination was Islington/Kipling.......unless the presumption is that the people on the Dundas buses are all within a shortish distance from the GO stations on the Milton line.

 

[CDL.TO]

I always wonder about why there seems so much support (not directed at any one poster specifically) for extending the YUS northward but resistance/reluctance to extending BD westward into Mississauga.

Because Mississauga has a parallel GO line which, with upgrades and fare integration, could provide a higher-speed, higher-capacity, higher-quality alternative plus would require fewer transfers to get downtown than a subway alternative. The presence of a transfer opportunity at Kipling means that all trips would continue to be served (Want to get from Cooksville to Jane? Just transfer at Kipling). The Milton line, while not following Dundas perfectly, never strays more than 600m away from Dundas between Dixie and Hurontario meaning that the same general areas would be served. For example, a Dixie station would be just 500m south of Dundas Street.

The Richmond Hill line, while "parallel" to the Yonge subway, would still be slower than the Yonge line due to its winding route through the Don Valley. Since there is no Kipling equivalent where people can transfer to the Yonge line to continue in the same direction, certain trips wouldn't be served by a Richmond Hill upgrade (Want to get from Richmond Hill Centre to Finch? You're still stuck with a bus.). The Richmond Hill line diverts far away from Yonge, for example at Steeles where a Yonge extension would serve a major trip generator (Centerpoint Mall), the Richmond Hill line is instead 3.3km east and surrounded by subdivisions.

Someone heading from Queen and Yonge to Richmond Hill Centre station via a Yonge extension would have a 19-stop trip with zero transfers. Someone heading from Queen and Yonge to Cooksville by a BD extension is looking at a 26-stop trip with a transfer!* But with a Milton line upgrade, the same trip would be 9-stop trip, with one transfer. Even from UofT (Spadina station) it would be 19 stops on a subway extension (with no transfer) but 12 stops (with a transfer) with an upgraded GO line, which is a wash at worst.

This isn’t even taking capacity issues into account.

I can't speak for everyone (There are definitely a few anti-905 people on this forum who hold that belief that Mississauga shouldn't get a subway just because it's not Toronto, which is bullshit.), but a Milton line upgrade makes more sense when you look at the existing geography of population, ridership, and transit line locations. A Milton line upgrade would provide superior quality of service for the people of Mississauga, while a subway extension would provide superior quality of service for people in Markham and Richmond Hill.

*(More stops than midtown Manhattan to Far Rockaway!)

 

[innsertnamehere]

plus the city of Peel is focusing on getting its Hurontario LRT funded why York is focusing on the Yonge subway. both will be coming with the transit tax this summer though.

 

[dunkalunk]

I've created a new map for transit expansion in Toronto with (hopefully) realistic completion dates. For clarity, I've only shown new subway stops and major LRT stops. Placemarks with dots indicate a GO Rail connection.

http://tinypic.com/r/2l9mpgo/6

I've excluded Peel for the most part because frankly, I also don't know Peel.

 

[doady]

What people don't realize about Dundas ridership is mostly local. The busiest section is Hurontario to Dixie. MT recently beefed up the Saturday frequency between Hurontario and Wharton to 8 minutes to deal with the chronic closed door problems here.

So I don't see improved GO Train service removing riders from Dundas at all. They're not really competing with each other. If Dundas had a connection to a frequent, all-day Milton Line (like at Cawthra for example), the ridership would only increase. Remember, the busiest bus route in Mississauga (and all of the 905) is Hurontario, which has no TTC connection at all.

With frequent all-day train service along Milton, the Hurontario-Main LRT, Mississauga Transitway, the transit ridership throughout Mississauga, including along Dundas, would increase significantly. And then you have to consider the effect on ridership that new redevelopments and a transitway along Dundas itself would have. I don't see how the planned Dundas BRT will be able to handle this. Dundas already has a 4.5 minute peak frequency, and more than half of those buses are articulated. There isn't much more room for ridership growth using buses. BRT would just be a waste of time and money.

 

[gweed123]

What people don't realize about Dundas ridership is mostly local. The busiest section is Hurontario to Dixie. MT recently beefed up the Saturday frequency between Hurontario and Wharton to 8 minutes to deal with the chronic closed door problems here.

So I don't see improved GO Train service removing riders from Dundas at all. They're not really competing with each other. If Dundas had a connection to a frequent, all-day Milton Line (like at Cawthra for example), the ridership would only increase. Remember, the busiest bus route in Mississauga (and all of the 905) is Hurontario, which has no TTC connection at all.

With frequent all-day train service along Milton, the Hurontario-Main LRT, Mississauga Transitway, the transit ridership throughout Mississauga, including along Dundas, would increase significantly. And then you have to consider the effect on ridership that new redevelopments and a transitway along Dundas itself would have. I don't see how the planned Dundas BRT will be able to handle this. Dundas already has a 4.5 minute peak frequency, and more than half of those buses are articulated. There isn't much more room for ridership growth using buses. BRT would just be a waste of time and money.

Projected ridership in 2031 between Hurontario and Kipling is 3,200 pphpd for LRT, or 3,100 for BRT. Unless those projections are inaccurate, dedicated bus lanes should be able to handle the load. But I say again: I'm just going by what the report says.

 

[Dan416]

Projected ridership in 2031 between Hurontario and Kipling is 3,200 pphpd for LRT, or 3,100 for BRT. Unless those projections are inaccurate, dedicated bus lanes should be able to handle the load. But I say again: I'm just going by what the report says.

Do those ridership projections take Dundas St redevelopment into account? Right now it's mostly plazas and a few high-rises here and there. If you rezoned this busy route for high-density, ridership would be even higher than it is now.

And if you built a subway along Dundas, it would pull in riders from Bloor, Rathburn and Burnhamthorpe, possibly even Lakeshore and Eglinton.

 

[gweed123]

Do those ridership projections take Dundas St redevelopment into account? Right now it's mostly plazas and a few high-rises here and there. If you rezoned this busy route for high-density, ridership would be even higher than it is now.

And if you built a subway along Dundas, it would pull in riders from Bloor, Rathburn and Burnhamthorpe, possibly even Lakeshore and Eglinton.

The report does look into Secondary Plans and development potential, yes. Unless the corridor is up-zoned significantly more than what it's planned for now, it's going to be in the neighbourhood of 3,000 pphpd for the foreseeable future. And that's certainly in the low range of LRT, but it's right in the wheelhouse for BRT.

 

[doady]

Projected ridership in 2031 between Hurontario and Kipling is 3,200 pphpd for LRT, or 3,100 for BRT. Unless those projections are inaccurate, dedicated bus lanes should be able to handle the load. But I say again: I'm just going by what the report says.

I don't care what their report says. It is wrong.

Dundas is already at 4.5 minutes, with articulated buses, and the buses are already experiencing closed doors situations. What more is there to say, really.

 

[gweed123]

I don't care what their report says. It is wrong.

Dundas is already at 4.5 minutes, with articulated buses, and the buses are already experiencing closed doors situations. What more is there to say, really.

So you think the ridership will be in excess of 4,000 pphpd in 2031? That's 40 articulated buses an hour, or 1 bus every 1.5 minutes. Do you really think the ridership is going to triple from what it is now?

The 3,100 pphpd cited in the report is 1 articulated bus every 2 minutes during peak. Still double what it is now, but still perfectly manageable with BRT using dedicated lanes.

I can see the ridership potentially doubling on the corridor in the next ~20 years, but tripling? There would need to be a boatload of extra density added to the corridor to get even close to tripling the ridership.