Transit City: Sheppard East Debate

[unimaginative2]

The TTC's "Predicted Demand" is quite comical. They actually expect people to believe that there's some kind of universal "demand" in a corridor regardless of the technology used, and then you just plug it in to the little formula that magically always comes out LRT. In the real world, demand is variable based on the service provided. A fully grade separated subway would have far higher ridership than a median LRT, which in turn would have higher ridership than a mixed traffic bus.

Translink in Vancouver studied their new Evergreen line and found that choosing Skytrain technology over LRT would double the ridership (not to mention reduce operating costs). Needless to say, they went with Skytrain despite the 10% higher capital cost.

Anyway, the ridership east of Agincourt on the Sheppard streetcar, by the TTC's own projections, will be far lower than could be carried by a bus. Does that mean that it should be truncated?

The Sheppard subway needs to be completed from NYCC to STC both for network connectivity and to serve the densely-populated and rapidly developing neighbourhoods in between.

Those so called studies sucked every east west rider between Eglinton and Steeles onto Sheppard and completely ignored GO.

Uh, I've read those studies and no they didn't... I'm not sure where you're getting that idea. As for GO, they didn't include regional rail style service in their planning--and for good reason since it hasn't happened in the intervening decades and isn't likely to happen for a few more. Even if the GO Malvern line and Stouffville lines got 15 minute frequencies all day (something that not even Metrolinx is talking about), they wouldn't poach that many riders from a Sheppard subway, which mainly serves crosstown traffic. In fact, it might even increase ridership because of the easy transfer at Agincourt GO between the two GO lines and the subway for onward trips to STC, Consumers, NYCC, etc.

 

[Second_in_pie]

Niftz, your arguments are getting more and more ridiculous each passing day.
The Sheppard studies confirmed that there was density and ridership fot the subway to go to Victoria Park. The study also said that hitting Agincourt and terminating at STC also demanded subway speeds and capacity. Until just a few years ago with the advent of Transit City, the Sheppard East and West extensions were the TTC's top priority. Then, David Miller came in and demanded that LRT be built instead simply "because it's european and looks nice."

 

[rbt]

Niftz, your arguments are getting more and more ridiculous each passing day.
The Sheppard studies confirmed that there was density and ridership fot the subway to go to Victoria Park. The study also said that hitting Agincourt and terminating at STC also demanded subway speeds and capacity. Until just a few years ago with the advent of Transit City, the Sheppard East and West extensions were the TTC's top priority. Then, David Miller came in and demanded that LRT be built instead simply "because it's european and looks nice."

You have the events a bit wrong. Metrolinx came in and said "we want continuity between Finch West and Sheppard East". TTC (and the mayors office) were both open to an extension of Sheppard to Vic Park as that section of LRT is tricky and pricey anyway.

Metrolinx confirmed their continuous LRT line in their BCA, looked for an found money for the segment from Finch station to Don Mills station, and requested the TTC design a transfer point at Don Mills stations for 3 LRT routes (Finch <-> Sheppard + Don Mills) all by themselves.


The outcome is the same but if you intend to petition change then you need to be aware of which group wants what.

 

[nfitz]

Niftz, your arguments are getting more and more ridiculous each passing day.

My most recent argument was that using a 2% inflation rate for construction cost increased since 1997 was inappropriate. You think that's ridiculous?

The Sheppard studies confirmed that there was density and ridership fot the subway to go to Victoria Park.

The most recent study estimated that if the subway was built, the peak direction traffic at the busiest point east of Don Mills in the future would only be 5,000 passengers per hour. This is well under the 12,000 or so that LRT can handle. The older RTES report from 2001 indicated that if the Sheppard line was extended to Victoria Park the peak direction traffic at the busiest point would only be 5,100 passengers per hour in 2021. If extended to Agincourt it would be 7,200 passengers per hour. If extended to SC it would still only be 8,400; well in the capacity of LRT.

The study also said that hitting Agincourt and terminating at STC also demanded subway speeds and capacity.

Can you provide a URL for that study? The only studies I see put the future subway ridership well in the domain of LRT.

 

[Ansem]

You have the events a bit wrong. Metrolinx came in and said "we want continuity between Finch West and Sheppard East". TTC (and the mayors office) were both open to an extension of Sheppard to Vic Park as that section of LRT is tricky and pricey anyway.

Metrolinx confirmed their continuous LRT line in their BCA, looked for an found money for the segment from Finch station to Don Mills station, and requested the TTC design a transfer point at Don Mills stations for 3 LRT routes (Finch <-> Sheppard + Don Mills) all by themselves.


The outcome is the same but if you intend to petition change then you need to be aware of which group wants what.

I though Miller wanted LRT

Then Metrolinx wanted a single north crosstown

Then the proposed link between Sheppard and Finch at Don Mills was added...

Wrong order?

 

[DavidH]

I though Miller wanted LRT

Then Metrolinx wanted a single north crosstown

Then the proposed link between Sheppard and Finch at Don Mills was added...

Wrong order?

No, although a complete accounting would include the MoveOntario 2020 announcement which included Sheppard and Finch but without a connector.

 

[nfitz]

I've seen no indication that the TTC has signed on to the Finch to Don Mills station track; I'm yet to see any figure that shows it..

I wouldn't be surprised if the TTC's plan is tha they save that for last; and when the project is over budget, they simply cut that to save money; at worst it gives them the start of the Don Mills LRT and Finch East LRT.

 

[Ansem]

My most recent argument was that using a 2% inflation rate for construction cost increased since 1997 was inappropriate. You think that's ridiculous?

The most recent study estimated that if the subway was built, the peak direction traffic at the busiest point east of Don Mills in the future would only be 5,000 passengers per hour. This is well under the 12,000 or so that LRT can handle. The older RTES report from 2001 indicated that if the Sheppard line was extended to Victoria Park the peak direction traffic at the busiest point would only be 5,100 passengers per hour in 2021. If extended to Agincourt it would be 7,200 passengers per hour. If extended to SC it would still only be 8,400; well in the capacity of LRT.

Can you provie a URL for that study? The only studies I see put the future subway ridership well in the domain of LRT.

And you do know you can make numbers says anything that you want them to say, right? First thing they teach you in college on conducting and reading studies...You have to be very careful when you're interpretating the conclusion of a study.

1-They keep using ridership east of Don Mills but yet, I haven't seen a single study on the WHOLE line if it were completed...

I already demonstrated that our incomplete subway line have a higher ridership than many lines who are 4 times longer and have 4 times more stations... Why aren't those longer lines considered like a waste of money?

2-Why aren't they taking into account that ridership west of Don Mills would increase as well since there would be a brand new rapid transit line leaving from Downsview and going to STC. More people east of Sheppard-Yonge would use it to go to Downsview and use the Spadina line. Why not study that?

3-Using you're own numbers ''If extended to SC it would still only be 8,400''. Why is the TTC saying that we need 30 000 for subway when an official representing the TTC went to Ottawa saying:''When your talking about 10 000, you're in subway territory."

I would have been glad to give you the link to the video but I don't have it and surely someone here will find it for you.

4-They only studied the Sheppard area.

-Why not study the potential of having Markham residents drive or use reroute York transit to the new Sheppard subways?
-What about Agincourt Go user? More commuters would get out at Agincourt and use the subway
-What about Go buses that would stop on Sheppard instead of going to STC?

The TTC 5000 number projection for east of Don Mills is crap. There are so many other factors they REFUSED to study because they want LRT over subway and not because ridership doesn't justify it.


***By the way Nfitz...I'm not disputing that LRT can't take it. Sure it could but I'm asking you.

What do you think is Best for Toronto in the long term?

 

[rbt]

I've seen no indication that the TTC has signed on to the Finch to Don Mills station track; I'm yet to see any figure that shows it..

The Metrolinx BCA includes it and indicates it is the best solution. I understand that little segment also got funding, though it is kinda fuzzy as to whether it does or does not.

 

[js97]

This is a classic example of a completely clueless Mayor running on this fairy tale ideology that no one is ever in a hurry because they work for unionized jobs and can take an extra 15 minutes longer to get to work every day...

What a logistics night mare if I wanted to get from Shepperd East to the west (3 transfers?)

If Miller lived near Scarborough Town Center and had to get to downtown, we would have a subway connecting Donmills & Scarborough Town Center.

Living in south etobicoke and driving to work everyday..... what a hippocrate!

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

js:

Somehow I have a feeling the mayor works harder than you, with the hours that he put in. And for the record, he lives in the High Park area, and has been seen taking the TTC and walking around town even when on official business.

What a logistics night mare if I wanted to get from Shepperd East to the west (3 transfers?)

Not to say that's an ideal situation, but doing 3 transfers isn't a rare thing for riders at all even in the system today. Who is living in a fairy tale now?

As to Sheppard subway vs. LRT

Personally, I still don't believe taken as a whole, extending the subway is more important (by a long shot) than extending Bloor Danforth to STC (and converting Sheppard to a single mode along the entire line), which will provide a more direct and faster route downtown than Sheppard/YUS. Coupled with a properly designed DRL with some sort of N/S alignment that further siphons rush traffic, there is even less of a case for "heavy rail" along the corridor.

AoD

 

[rbt]

I though Miller wanted LRT

Then Metrolinx wanted a single north crosstown

Then the proposed link between Sheppard and Finch at Don Mills was added...

Wrong order?

Perhaps not wrong order but missing detail as my understanding goes.


Miller/TTC proposed LRT east of Victoria Park on Sheppard leaving the method for getting under the DVP undecided. The study to follow was whether a subway extension OR LRT to Don Mills with Sheppard meeting the subway at track level (pocket track at the subway) would be used.

They also proposed Finch West which terminated at Finch station. These are clearly shown in most Transit City documents.


Metrolinx's "A Big Move" document is the first to include Finch West connecting to Sheppard East via LRT. Lots of debate about technology for the Eglinton line but nothing really debatable about what they show for Sheppard.



Sheppard discussion goes from how do minimize the transfer between LRT/Subway, and how to get past 404 to "how do we hook up a continuous Finch and Sheppard with minimal transfer" between those two routes.

Making them a single route a minimal transfer (duh).

Now the discussion is how do they put in a T intersection with Don Mills/Sheppard with minimal transfer to the subway.


The subway to Vic Park was eliminated by Metrolinx. The recent BCA from Metrolinx, which didn't even consider subway to VicPark an option, put it into stone.


Anyway, my one and only point, is to know what all of the stakeholders want before you will be able to change the plan. Petitioning TTC or the Mayors office for the Vic Park extension will accomplish absolutely nothing.

The design and funding "veto" is in Metrolinx's hand. They own the results, they dole out the funding, and they approve of the design.

Metrolinx has also gotten smacked for being slow out of the gate and not making difficult decisions. The new board is knows very well that results need to be shown quickly.

The need to get something out of the gate is probably your biggest challenge to changing the design, and that pressure comes directly from the Premiers office.


One hope for the want to change things, is that the Metrolinx BCA for Sheppard did NOT include the storage benefits for the Yonge subway extension. The alternative, as I understand it, is to make tail tracks that can hold ~14 trains -- possibly 1km of tail track.

Considering this would have improved the option for Sheppard West subway possibly to the tipping point. You're fighting against the need to show results
but might be able to get an adjusted BCA at Metrolinx -- the place with the design/funding veto.

 

[nfitz]

And you do know you can make numbers says anything that you want them to say, right?

Only to a point; one of these studes was the one to used to justify Sheppard having priority ...

First thing they teach you in college on conducting and reading studies...You have to be very careful when you're interpretating the conclusion of a study.

Haven't been to college ... but they certainly taught me such things when I did Engineering.

1-They keep using ridership east of Don Mills but yet, I haven't seen a single study on the WHOLE line if it were completed...

The peak point is already subway; so it already has the capacity ...

I already demonstrated that our incomplete subway line have a higher ridership than many lines who are 4 times longer and have 4 times more stations...

Which only demonstrates that appropriate technology was not chosen for those other lines ... or that they were constructed in a different era when the subway was a more economical choice. While an interesting point, it doesn't provide any information to provide input into future decisions.

Why aren't those longer lines considered like a waste of money?

Because the passenger demand can easily be met by a lot cheaper modes, allowing a lot more km to be built for the same $.

2-Why aren't they taking into account that ridership west of Don Mills would increase as well since there would be a brand new rapid transit line leaving from Downsview and going to STC.

Because there is already subway west of Don Mills that can handle whatever east of Don Mills throws at it.

More people east of Sheppard-Yonge would use it to go to Downsview and use the Spadina line. Why not study that?

Downsview to Yonge is east of the LRT project; I really don't see the relevance; it's not like having a subway from Yonge to Downsview is suddenly going to double the number of people travelling from Don Mills to Victoria Park. Besides, they did study it in Metrolinx BCA report where they noted that extending the subway to Downsview (Option 4) would results in a peak demand of 5,100 passengers per hour per direction on the LRT east of Don Mills; compare to to the 5,000 passengers per hour predicted for the selected Option 3. In other words, extending to Downsview will only add 100 passengers per hour east of Don Mills, so not a signficant issue.

3-Using you're own numbers ''If extended to SC it would still only be 8,400''. Why is the TTC saying that we need 30 000 for subway when an official representing the TTC went to Ottawa saying:''When your talking about 10 000, you're in subway territory."

Where has TTC said 30,000 is needed for subway? The EA I referenced earlier clearly showed that at 15,000 subway was the only option, and that 30,000 is the capacity for subway.

I would have been glad to give you the link to the video but I don't have it and surely someone here will find it for you.

Perhaps someone stuck their foot in their mouth? The studies are documents, and are quite clear.

4-They only studied the Sheppard area.

-Why not study the potential of having Markham residents drive or use reroute York transit to the new Sheppard subways?

I can't for a minute imagine that this would double the usage! Particularly as they will have the Markham GO Train running regularily to Agincourt, Kennedy, and Union by then! And if you take that into account, the demand might actually decrease!

-What about Agincourt Go user? More commuters would get out at Agincourt and use the subway

-What about Go buses that would stop on Sheppard instead of going to STC?

Your stretching ...

The TTC 5000 number projection for east of Don Mills is crap. There are so many other factors they REFUSED to study because they want LRT over subway and not because ridership doesn't justify it.

The TTC 5000 projection dates back to when they were trying to justify the subway extension to SRT ... explain that one!

What do you think is Best for Toronto in the long term?

I think the best thing for Toronto is to quickly build what is funded (before some government that just realised it has a huge deficit wants to pull it back); obtain funding for Jane and Don Mills, and perhaps Lakeshore West; push ahead with the DRL based on the outcome of the Environmental Assessment that has just started. Extend Yonge subway. Move ahead with GO and Metrolinx's commuter rail and regional express rail proposals quickly. And then in 2020 when Transit City is complete, and hopefully Yonge and the start of the DRL are under construction, sit down and figure out what to do next based on updated traffic studies, population densities, etc.

 

[kEiThZ]

As far as a subway goes. The predicted demand for subway is significantly lower than what can be provided with LRT. I can see some argument for extending to Victoria Park ... but after that I don't see much ... particularly from Agincourt to SC!

Then build that portion. I can see that going till STC might be expensive and might not see enough ridership. But I can't agree with a conscious decision being made that would effectively rule out subway extensions in the future. Why not at least extend the subway till Agincourt. Then have LRT the rest of the way? That way a future Agincourt-STC link is possible when demand warrants it and funds are available.

js:
Personally, I still don't believe taken as a whole, extending the subway is more important (by a long shot) than extending Bloor Danforth to STC (and converting Sheppard to a single mode along the entire line), which will provide a more direct and faster route downtown than Sheppard/YUS. Coupled with a properly designed DRL with some sort of N/S alignment that further siphons rush traffic, there is even less of a case for "heavy rail" along the corridor.

AoD

I agree that for most of Scarborough, a Bloor-Danforth extension is much more valuable than a Sheppard East extension. The ridership numbers don't lie. The bulk of riders are going on the RT are going from STC to Kennedy. The extension is a no-brainer. As for Sheppard, as pointed out above, what's bothersome is that the project is being planned to effectively rule out subway extensions in the future.

 

[nfitz]

Then build that portion.

They are building over half of it in a tunnel ... and as that's the peak point, that would help capacity if it exceeds the limit for non-grade separated LRT. Before the EA was completed I did advocate that they extend it to Victoria Park ... and if necessary build a Finch East/Victoria Park LRT to connect the LRT (which might make more sense really than Finch East/Don Mills, as it deals with the Seneca node better, and opens up the possibility of a short Finch East extension to Warden which has such a high density.

But this is a relatively small difference with the current project, and that date has passed. However, a concerted, targeted battle, with the co-operation of the two local councillors (Shelley Carroll and Norm Kelly) might have a small chance. It's certainly a more reasonable suggestion than the "let's take all the money from Finch East and Sheppard East and build a subway to SRT" suggestion, which would get little support from anyone with any power.

But I can't agree with a conscious decision being made that would effectively rule out subway extensions in the future..

I don't see that anything being done precludes future expansions. If there is future demand, then the city has shown it's willing to abandon existing infrastructure; this happened with the Yonge subway, the Bloor-Danforth subway, and most recently with the Spadina subway extension which will render useless the York BRT.