urbanboom
Active Member
EDIT: Just to clarify I think CANCELING the Sheppard East LRT is HIGHER PRIORITY than DRL advocacy. Yes I think it's that important.
You just lost my support.
EDIT: Just to clarify I think CANCELING the Sheppard East LRT is HIGHER PRIORITY than DRL advocacy. Yes I think it's that important.
Yeah, because if an economics theory says something, it must be right...
In the real world, and even for every non-subway project in Toronto, as well as everywhere else in the world, lines do not need to have projected riderships over a mode's maximum theoretical capacity for the project to be considered worth building. A capacity that shrinks over time, too. Transit ceases to function properly if it does not have "excess" capacity (which is a poor and loaded term).
1) Is it possible to buy the vehicles and infrastructure off the shelf, so they can use the existing Sheppard tunnel with minor modifications only?
2) What would the extension cost? If it is mostly tunneled and is marginally cheaper than the subway extension, then it is more logical to extend the subway ...
It's not even really "economic theory," it is just an unavoidable conclusion that it makes no sense whatsoever to intentionally over design something.
Look, what is the current demand on Sheppard? Trains run every 5-6m, and each train has 650 seats. Assuming that one hundred percent of seats are occupied 100% of the time, that implies 6,500-7,800 pph/pd. The surface part of Sheppard is projected to have demand of something like 3,000 pph/pd. Let's be clear that I think that is a respectable demand level. What isn't reasonable is that we are serving these corridors with systems which have peak capacity in the 45,000 pph/pd band. Fine, we shouldn't design things to operate at capacity within 2 years, but at what point does overcapacity stop being "forward looking" and become a white elephant? Operating at 20% of theoretical capacity? 15% of capacity? 5% of capacity?
If we say the Sheppard Line has peak demand of something like 8,000 pph/pd, a reasonable system would operate in the 10,000-12,000 pph/pd range to ensure a degree of future proofing and surplus capacity. The problem with Sheppard isn't that it is perpetually overcrowded. The problem is we paid for capacity we clearly didn't need and now we have to graft something that stops and red lights on to lower average costs at the expense of drastically slower travel speeds.
Contrary to what you state, most transit operators have moved away from juvenile logic of constantly opting for the most elaborate and overbuilt system and are focusing on more conventional cost-benefit analysis. In Hong Kong they are designing their newest line to operate with a peak capacity roughly half their conventional system (~20 pph/pd) due to prohibitive costs of full fledged metro. Singapore is adopting similar logic by designing future projects to operate with "medium capacity trains." In London, the DLR has been expanding almost continuously while the heavy rail tube has remained stagnant. Even Dubai, whom thought it prudent to carry out any number of wasteful projects, decided a full blown metro system was over the top.
This is a bit of overstatement. Building the DRL is essential for the viability of the entire network, while any changes to Sheppard East plans will be relevant for that area only.
Besides, no politician will support canceling that LRT without replacing it with another transit option (such as subway extension). Moreover, very few (if any) TTC riders would sign a petition that highlight a cancellation of new transit, rather than replacing it with something better.
Scarberian:
Instead of just issuing hyperbolic claims about how Sheppard will turn water into wine, why don't you actually look at demand projections along Sheppard? I did, and none of them ever go above 10,000. Ever. The TTC projected that, were a subway built along Sheppard East demand would peak at about 5,000 pph/pd and average demand of much, much less. I'm not making this up, or selectively ignoring the value of Sheppard as a northern connector. If you look at the data though there is absolutely nothing to give any indication that Sheppard will ever come close to utilizing even a fifth of a subway's potential capacity. It will barely use 11% of the a subway's capacity for two hours a day, and have single digit utilization for the rest. Jesus, if that isn't a white elephant what the hell is?
Anyways, the Sheppard subway is what it is and it makes no sense to engage in a lengthy retrofit to accommodate LF LRVs. Moving forward though, it obviously seems desirable to have rapid transit along a corridor stretching roughly from STC to Downsview along Sheppard. It's impossible to look at demand studies of the corridor and conclude that peak point demand will ever exceed 10k pph/pd within our lifetime. On the other hand, it is impossible to ignore that transit which operates at bicycle speeds (like the SE LRT) will never be considered an alternative to driving. So the goals should be to accommodate projected demand with a contingency factor of 20-30% and while ensuring speeds of 35+km/h.
There are lots of ways that goal could be accommodated and I don't really have much of a technical preference. Certain high platform LRVs would work well, modified EMU's would probably be optimal. For reference purposes I would use the SRT, but I don't think the induction systems are such a great idea. Everything else about it is pretty much right though. If you back out the costs of upgrading the existing SRT from the costs of extending the SRT to Malvern, you get capital costs in the league of 200m dollars per km, which is about 60% of what the TTC claims is necessary to build subways. I would assume using a conventional EMU based system with similar route construction could lower costs a bit more, and the TTC seems to claim 80m stations are necessary whereas systems elsewhere make due with 40-60m.
Scarberian:
Instead of just issuing hyperbolic claims about how Sheppard will turn water into wine, why don't you actually look at demand projections along Sheppard? I did, and none of them ever go above 10,000. Ever. The TTC projected that, were a subway built along Sheppard East demand would peak at about 5,000 pph/pd and average demand of much, much less. I'm not making this up, or selectively ignoring the value of Sheppard as a northern connector. If you look at the data though there is absolutely nothing to give any indication that Sheppard will ever come close to utilizing even a fifth of a subway's potential capacity. It will barely use 11% of the a subway's capacity for two hours a day, and have single digit utilization for the rest. Jesus, if that isn't a white elephant what the hell is?
Scarberian:
Instead of just issuing hyperbolic claims about how Sheppard will turn water into wine, why don't you actually look at demand projections along Sheppard? I did, and none of them ever go above 10,000. Ever. The TTC projected that, were a subway built along Sheppard East demand would peak at about 5,000 pph/pd and average demand of much, much less. I'm not making this up, or selectively ignoring the value of Sheppard as a northern connector. If you look at the data though there is absolutely nothing to give any indication that Sheppard will ever come close to utilizing even a fifth of a subway's potential capacity. It will barely use 11% of the a subway's capacity for two hours a day, and have single digit utilization for the rest. Jesus, if that isn't a white elephant what the hell is?
Anyways, the Sheppard subway is what it is and it makes no sense to engage in a lengthy retrofit to accommodate LF LRVs. Moving forward though, it obviously seems desirable to have rapid transit along a corridor stretching roughly from STC to Downsview along Sheppard. It's impossible to look at demand studies of the corridor and conclude that peak point demand will ever exceed 10k pph/pd within our lifetime. On the other hand, it is impossible to ignore that transit which operates at bicycle speeds (like the SE LRT) will never be considered an alternative to driving. So the goals should be to accommodate projected demand with a contingency factor of 20-30% and while ensuring speeds of 35+km/h.
There are lots of ways that goal could be accommodated and I don't really have much of a technical preference. Certain high platform LRVs would work well, modified EMU's would probably be optimal. For reference purposes I would use the SRT, but I don't think the induction systems are such a great idea. Everything else about it is pretty much right though. If you back out the costs of upgrading the existing SRT from the costs of extending the SRT to Malvern, you get capital costs in the league of 200m dollars per km, which is about 60% of what the TTC claims is necessary to build subways. I would assume using a conventional EMU based system with similar route construction could lower costs a bit more, and the TTC seems to claim 80m stations are necessary whereas systems elsewhere make due with 40-60m.
EASY solution ONLY have stops at Major intersections....
Vik Park.
Warden.
Birchmount.
Kennedy.
Midland.
Brimley
ETC...
BUT all the studies show if the stops are that far apart ppl would have to walk and be less inclined to use the service...
SO really we have only our lazy selves to blame...
If everyone in the study didnt insist on having a stop 100m from their house or work TC would have less stops and as a result move much faster.