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Tory Plan to Boost Alberta, BC in Parliament, Reduce Ontario

incumbency helps only if your popular or well known.

Beaumier was very widely liked in her riding.

Seeaback did a great job of getting some of the Indian vote away from the Liberals. That is why it was so close.

Ruby Dhalla is popular but she has a ton of enemies and they all are united aginst here. It appears a single successful women is a terrfiying sight to some in her community. I know a great deal of people will not vote for her because she is not married. Also people accuse her of being a celebrity, as she gets people thrown in jail and beaten up...

In Bramalea Gore-Malton the long time Liberal faced his first real race since 1993 in the last election. He however beat back the challenge handily but I seriously think he should retire.
 
I'd be surprised if the 416 got anything more than 0.5 additional ridings...putting the Scarborough in Pickering-Scarborough East back into Scarborough, coupled with Malvern growth, would be enough to carve out a new NE Scarborough riding and reduce all Scarborough ridings to the Quebec standard (Scarborough Southwest is actually below the standard right now).

Trinity-Spadina and Toronto Centre and larger than they should be but the Davenport/Parkdale/Danforth/Beaches ridings are all small and each could presumably be jacked up by a census tract or two.

Some shuffling is also needed in North York, where Willowdale, the 2nd largest riding in the 416, is growing quickly. Don Valley East has a bit of room to accommodate a slice of Willowdale but York Centre doesn't, unless the small York West takes a part of York Centre, like a game of electoral musical chairs.
 
I suppose giving Scarborough more representation is better than giving Mississauga-Erindale more representation.
 
York Region will likely get a few seats and there will be one seat that is a mix of Burlington, Oakville as well.
 
Here's the biggest ridings in Ontario as of 2006:

Brampton West 170,422
Oak Ridges - Markham 169,642
Vaughan 154,206
Bramalea - Gore - Malton 152,698
Halton 151,943
Mississauga - Erindale 143,361
Mississauga - Brampton South 136,470
Whitby - Oshawa 135,893
Nepean - Carleton 133,245
Thornhill 131,978
Brampton - Springdale 131,797
Scarborough - Rouge River 130,974
Mississauga - Streetsville 130,033
Cambridge 129,434
Willowdale 129,356
Carleton - Mississippi Mills 128,915
Barrie 128,430
Markham - Unionville 127,191
Kitchener - Waterloo 126,742
Niagara Falls 126,696
Mississauga East - Cooksville 126,642
Simcoe - Grey 125,985
Brant 125,136
Essex 123,872
Northumberland - Quinte West 123,706

And the smallest:

Sault Ste. Marie 89,028
Thunder Bay - Rainy River 85,153
Thunder Bay - Superior North 82,589
Timmins - James Bay 80,791
Algoma - Manitoulin - Kapuskasing 77,961
Kenora 64,291

edit - imagine how many seats Ontario'd need if we adopted the PEI standard! :) Oak Ridges-Markham and Brampton West would each be divided into 5 ridings...
 
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scarberiankhatru said:
And the smallest:

Sault Ste. Marie 89,028
Thunder Bay - Rainy River 85,153
Thunder Bay - Superior North 82,589
Timmins - James Bay 80,791
Algoma - Manitoulin - Kapuskasing 77,961
Kenora 64,291
Click to expand...

One thing to keep in mind about Kenora is that it was actually *reduced* in the last redistribution--a practicality measure to account for its vast land mass. (It formerly included Rainy River; Howard Hampton's provincial seat still does.)
 
scarberiankhatru said:
Here's the biggest ridings in Ontario as of 2006:

Brampton West 170,422
Oak Ridges - Markham 169,642
Vaughan 154,206
Bramalea - Gore - Malton 152,698
Halton 151,943
Mississauga - Erindale 143,361
Mississauga - Brampton South 136,470
Whitby - Oshawa 135,893
Nepean - Carleton 133,245
Thornhill 131,978
Brampton - Springdale 131,797
Scarborough - Rouge River 130,974
Mississauga - Streetsville 130,033
Cambridge 129,434
Willowdale 129,356
Carleton - Mississippi Mills 128,915
Barrie 128,430
Markham - Unionville 127,191
Kitchener - Waterloo 126,742
Niagara Falls 126,696
Mississauga East - Cooksville 126,642
Simcoe - Grey 125,985
Brant 125,136
Essex 123,872
Northumberland - Quinte West 123,706
Click to expand...

I took the liberty of bolding all the ridings on that list that are in Peel Region :) The only Mississauga riding not on that list is Mississauga South. But I think if South is split into Clarkson-Lorne Park and Port Credit-Lakeview and either end takes a bit of Erindale and Cooksville the numbers would work out.

EDIT: This is how I would redistribute the Mississauga seats --> would go from having 4 fully in Mississauga and 2 shared with Brampton to 7 fully in Mississauga

3120077490_4e86069104_o.gif


The population per riding might not work out exactly, but I used major dividers such as the Credit River, Dundas Street, Eglinton, Mavis and Mississauga Rd/Erin Mills Pkwy.
 
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Perhaps more worth it to see what happens in York Region--particularly since Oak Ridges-Markham is one of the most bizarrely-composed seats in Canada, and certainly of the sort that's making time 'til the next redistribution puts it out of its misery...
 
Mississauga Brampton South Riding should have Brampton separated and have that section combined with a new Riding of areas of Brampton West.
 
I redid Brampton's ridings as well, although I mostly used criteria to make the ridings as visually pleasing to my eye rather than knowing all too much about the actual neighborhoods of Brampton.

3121361689_6568c10f0d_o.gif
 
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Why not just give Alberta 307 seats, and then give the rest of Canada 1 seat? That way Stephen Harper can be the Ruler For Life.
 
adma said:
Perhaps more worth it to see what happens in York Region--particularly since Oak Ridges-Markham is one of the most bizarrely-composed seats in Canada, and certainly of the sort that's making time 'til the next redistribution puts it out of its misery...
Click to expand...

King could go to a new Vaughan riding; Oak Ridges, part of existing Richmond Hill, and Whitchurch-Stouffville can become another; and a new riding in Markham can finish it off, like Markham-Cornell.

They recently carved out nice cohesive ridings like Newmarket-Aurora and Richmond Hill and now they're already too big, though I wouldn't be surprised if Newmarket-Aurora is left as is, "too big," to keep the two towns together. Fixing York-Simcoe requires a demographic tangram, though, as Newmarket logically joins with East Gwillimbury but then Georgina would have to join Beaverton/Uxbridge in a new Durham-Simcoe riding, which would be awkward. Maybe Innisfil could join a new Barrie riding, allowing Bradford, EGwil., Georgina to join, though it'd be a bit small. Bradford, EGwil, Georgina, and King could work...having King Twp and Keswick in the same riding probably makes more sense than King and Cornell. Whatever they do, it'll probably have some normal sized ridings and a few weird ones, lambs to be slaughtered at future redistributions.

Thornhill's gonna have to lose the area north of the 407 along Rutherford and even then may still be too big. I wonder how the York Region ridings will be gerrymandered to maximize Conservative seats...it depends on how many more seats they get (+2, anyway). A Milliken seat combining central North Scarborough and south Markham, along Kennedy/McCowan, would make perfect sense as the two sides of Steeles are virtually identical twins...since Willowdale is also too big, perhaps the 416 will get a fraction of a new riding by redistributing across Steeles, especially since all Scarborough ridings not including Rouge River are average sized. 905 ridings that bleed into the 416 only increase the possibility of a 416 riding electing a Conservative...
 
Personally I'm not a big fan of ridings crossing municipal borders, at least not when you have large cities. I'm not really familiar with York Region I admit, but I feel Scarborough shouldn't have to share any ridings with Markham.
 
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