Richmond Hill Yonge Line 1 North Subway Extension | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx

[nfitz]

there's no need to troll, i'm asking a legitimate question.

How is that trolling? What would the bait be? Your comment makes no sense!

I provided just one of many examples why laying track in a subway tunnel is going to be much more of a difficult and expensive process than doing it on the surface. I'd think it's a given that once you are working in confined-space entry conditions, that it's not going to be cheaper!

 

[BMO]

There would be relatively more complications, actually. Besides the aforementioned hazards of working in tunnels (a big deal), which would add lots of extra man hours (mitigating confined space hazards), it would also likely increase insurance costs for contractors in tunnels. Working in a tunnel also requires more logistic coordination. The tunnel can only be loaded and stocked from relatively few points in comparison to an open cut. You can't bring your materials to the point you're actually working at. You need to bring them to a staging area, and then unload them, and then ferry them down the tunnel to the working area. That's more money for cartage, more money for loading, and more money for coordination.

thank you, this was what I was looking for.

How is that trolling? What would the bait be? Your comment makes no sense!

I provided just one of many examples why laying track in a subway tunnel is going to be much more of a difficult and expensive process than doing it on the surface. I'd think it's a given that once you are working in confined-space entry conditions, that it's not going to be cheaper!

I guess it was just one of those things that came off the wrong way over the internet, even though it wasn't intended that way.

 

[accura407]

It's site-specific, but often we TBM because it's cheaper than C&C.

I don't think any tunnelling technique is costing anywhere near that much in Toronto; even for twin tunnels. The $300 million/km number you see bounced around ($284 million/km for Spadina) is all in - not just the tunnels, but the track, signals, stations, vehicles, yard expansions, design, assessment, land aquisition, concrete liners, ... everything. The actually tunelling cost itself is only a portion of this. If you look at the 2 Spadina tunnelling contracts that were awarded, it covers 8.6 km of tunnel, Sheppard West station and Highway 407 station for about $683 million. That's $79 million/km if you assume the stations cost $0. I.e. all the tunnels and 1/3 of the stations is less than 28% of the entire project cost.

Maybe this is how we get these bizarre stories of why subways are cheaper in city X, because people are only looking at the tunnelling cost, rather than the entire project cost.

Well that is certainly interesting to know but yes my figure was meant to describe the overall cost. Cut & Cover tunnels or TBM + compact 4-car train stations + everything else...

Also I think the bigger picture needs to be looked at...while TBM tunneling 'might' be the same or slightly cheaper than C&C in certain applications, if the cost of building a deep station + TBM is substantially more than a shallow station + C&C then the decision needs to be made.

I think Toronto is not truly being fiscally conservative in their subway plans...which is why we are ending up with these unbelievable figures for subway expansions. I've mentioned this before but if the original sheppard subway of 5.5 km costed less than $1 billion, i don't understand how figures can almost double in a decade....$2.2 Billion for 8 KM? How did subway construction jump from $180 million/km to $280 million/km in one decade?

 

[BMO]

I'd assume a lot of factors would add to the increased costs, like inflation, increase of minimun wage, increase in gas prices (to transport the raw amterials and machinery, etc), there's other reasons too ,but in general infrastructure projects are all increasing in costs.

In an average snes just think about what the value of $1 million is now compared to ten years ago. Ten years ago $1 million was a lot of money. But now $1 million doesn't seem so big, and $1 billion is becoming the new $1 million.

edit: you could probably add in increased land costs adding to higher expropriating costs for projects

 

[Platform 27]

I think Toronto is not truly being fiscally conservative in their subway plans...which is why we are ending up with these unbelievable figures for subway expansions. I've mentioned this before but if the original sheppard subway of 5.5 km costed less than $1 billion, i don't understand how figures can almost double in a decade....$2.2 Billion for 8 KM? How did subway construction jump from $180 million/km to $280 million/km in one decade?

Basic inflation does cover off a fair chunk of it. $180 million/km in 1998 dollars is $236 million/km in 2011 dollars.

For the rest, though, it isn't just Toronto that's seeing these sorts of jumps. Outside of weird outliers with drastically lower labour costs or environmental/safety requirements, like Dubai or Shanghai, everyone's basic infrastructure costs have been escalating faster than the ambient level of inflation. I'm no expert, but I think a huge cost driver has been the fact that core construction materials like concrete and aggregate have been escalating in price globally and those are going to inescapably drive the price tag of any subway line higher.

It's also worth noting that this isn't just about massive cost growth between, say, a Spadina subway extension today and the original Bloor-Danforth line in the '60s. There's been a heck of a lot of growth between Spadina today and Sheppard 15 years ago. That's interesting to me, because there's no shortage of criticism around these parts for the Spadina extension's price tag, and the implication is that its price-per-kilometer is vastly higher than the lines of the past because of alleged "optional" expenses like public art integration and grandiosity in terms of station scale. (I say "alleged" because frankly much of that hasn't been "optional"---it's been driven by things like fire codes and accessibility requirements, and we simply don't live in a legal and engineering standards environment where you can build a Queen station again.) But when it comes to these things, the Spadina extension isn't a whole lot different from the original Sheppard line---same built-in art/architectural elan, not vastly different design requirements in terms of accessibility and platform width---and yet you're still seeing nearly a doubling of costs over 15 years. That tells me that the price per ton of concrete can go up by a few cents and it more than wipes out any savings you'd realize by chopping a glass skylight here or a mosaic there.

 

[nfitz]

Also I think the bigger picture needs to be looked at...while TBM tunneling 'might' be the same or slightly cheaper than C&C in certain applications, if the cost of building a deep station + TBM is substantially more than a shallow station + C&C then the decision needs to be made.

What makes you think that this decision isn't made? All our subway lines built after the mid-1950s have been a combination of C&C and TBM. The proposed Yonge extension is also a combination of C&C and TBM. Surely the are doing exactly this, using the cheapest appropriate technique. I'm confused as to where people think there is a significant (or any) cost savings to be made.

I've mentioned this before but if the original sheppard subway of 5.5 km costed less than $1 billion, i don't understand how figures can almost double in a decade....$2.2 Billion for 8 KM? How did subway construction jump from $180 million/km to $280 million/km in one decade?

In earlier posts I've demonstrated clearly how this happens. It's simply inflation. You don't use the Consumer Price Index to calculate the inflation of a construction job; you use a construction price index.

First, the 8.6-km Spadina extension is 43% longer than the 6.0-km Sheppard line (remember the tail tracks). So at Sheppard prices starting 14 years ago, Spadina should have cost $1.43 billion instead of $1 billion.

Sheppard construction started in about 1996. Spadina construction started in about 2010. If you started Sheppard in 2010, you'd add 14 years of inflation. For estimating, a general rule of thumb for the construction price index is 4%. Add 14 years of inflation to $1.43 billion at 4% and you get $2.48 billion. Almost exactly the same as the $2.44 billion cost for Spadina.

If you actually dig out the real construction inflation rate over the last 14 years, you'll find that it is actually higher than 4%. I wrote an extensive post previously on this quoting Ministry of Transportation data. It was over 5% I believe. At that rate, Spadina should cost $2.8 billion rather than $2.44 billion.

If anything, Spadina is being built for less money than Sheppard ... or perhaps we shouldn't be surprised if Spadina comes in $400 million over-budget.

And why is construction inlflation much higher than the consumer price index? The primary factors for construction are salaries, fuel costs, steel costs, and concrete (rock) costs. While salaries may be at, or even below CPI, if you look at the fuel, steel, and rock, they have all increased in price significantly faster than inflation over the last 14 years. You might have noticed this at the gas pump! The transportation cost for rock and steel is a significant part of their price ... and part of the reason rock and steel costs have increased. Though the tougher regulatory climate for quarrying, and the increase in commodity prices (steel) are a factor as well.

 

[gweed123]

So the real question is will this inflation continue at the same pace, will it accelerate, or will it slow down? I'm interested to know.

 

[nfitz]

So the real question is will this inflation continue at the same pace, will it accelerate, or will it slow down? I'm interested to know.

If it slows down to traditional rates, the 4% is what you want. If it carries on at the same pace, use 5% or more. And if it accelerates?

 

[gweed123]

If it slows down to traditional rates, the 4% is what you want. If it carries on at the same pace, use 5% or more. And if it accelerates?

I was just trying to gauge if the trends of the past 10 years were going to continue, increase, or level off, that's all. If they continue to increase on a curve rather than a straight line, it could certainly have an impact on how Metrolinx implements the 25 year plan.

 

[jaycola]

Viva has published a report titled "The Missing Link". Outlining 8 reasons why this project makes business sense.

Summary, complete text available at the link above.

The Yonge Subway Business Case describes why the Yonge Subway extension should be considered a top priority.

The Case for Action
The following eight points identify why the
Yonge Subway extension is critical and needs
to be identified as the top priority project and
receive full funding:

1.The Yonge Subway extension is
a critical link in a GTHA regional
transportation network.

2.The subway is the best strategy to
move people through the already
crowded roadway between Finch
and Highway 7.

3.The Yonge Subway extension is a
responsible investment based on
solid development plans, approved
policy documents, and existing and
new riders.

4.With the Yonge subway extension,
the intensification and development
being planned for the Richmond
Hill/Langstaff Urban Growth Centre
will meet the Province’s own smart
growth objectives.

5.The increase in transit ridership
from the Yonge Subway extension
would reduce road congestion and
air pollution to a greater extent than
any other transportation investment
being considered by Metrolinx.

6.Extending the Yonge Subway only
part way will not improve connections
for the majority of riders.

7.Public expectations that the
Yonge Subway will be extended
to the Highway 7 anchor hub were
significantly heightened through
provincial announcements in
MoveOntario 2020 and The Big Move.

8.The subway is the best strategy
to drive the economy as a key
infrastructure investment.

(Re. Congestion issues)
Further to the distribution of our brief to you “The Missing Link”,
we have been asked to clarify the implications of congestion issues
on the Yonge line and what work is underway to address these
concerns. We would report as follows:
-Automatic Train Operation (ATO) /
Automatic Train Control (ATC)
The implementation of ATO/ATC on the Yonge-
University-Spadina (YUS) subway line will
improve the passenger moving capacity by
allowing trains to travel closer together which
means more trains can run each hour...

They touch on issues on Yonge Bloor capacity, Dwell Times and Downtown Relief Line as well.

They offer these final points in conclusion:

The Yonge Subway extension is being
readied to be built:
>> Environmental assessments and
conceptual design are complete.
>> Downstream congestion studies are
nearing completion.
>> Preliminary engineering is ready to
commence.
>> The ridership demand is significant and
requires subway technology.
>> Securing funding is a top priority!

When you look at the plans for expanding the system, this gap or "Missing Link" is obviously an issue that ought to be dealt with in some manner sooner than later.

 

[gweed123]

With York Region basically acknowledging that something needs to be done downstream, and with the DTRTES nearing completion, this should make for an interesting next round of funding. It'll be interesting to see how the DTRTES prioritizes these two projects, and phases them.

 

[BMO]

With York Region basically acknowledging that something needs to be done downstream, and with the DTRTES nearing completion, this should make for an interesting next round of funding. It'll be interesting to see how the DTRTES prioritizes these two projects, and phases them.

with construction currently happening on spadina, and soon eglinton, maybe, just MAYBE, the subway construction may continue and be shared between DRL and Yonge North, and the Sheppard Expansions (ofcourse )

Realistically, I think Yonge North will be funded, with the Region footing a large proportion of the bill (I think they're willing). Toronto won't foot anything for a DRL (unfortunately), which makes it a much harder project to get through for funding.

 

[gweed123]

with construction currently happening on spadina, and soon eglinton, maybe, just MAYBE, the subway construction may continue and be shared between DRL and Yonge North, and the Sheppard Expansions (ofcourse )

Realistically, I think Yonge North will be funded, with the Region footing a large proportion of the bill (I think they're willing). Toronto won't foot anything for a DRL (unfortunately), which makes it a much harder project to get through for funding.

Wouldn't that be sweet if Toronto somehow managed to convince York Region to pay for part of the DRL, or the signal upgrades to increase capacity on the Yonge line? Haha. This is pretty common in land use planning when dealing with water flow issues: if you're building something upstream that will negatively impact quality of life downstream, the powers that be may force them to upgrade certain aspects of the area downstream in order to mitigate negative effects.

York Region wants a subway? Ok, help pay for upgrades further down the line so that people in Toronto aren't left standing on the platform because people from York Region are filling up the trains.

 

[BMO]

Wouldn't that be sweet if Toronto somehow managed to convince York Region to pay for part of the DRL, or the signal upgrades to increase capacity on the Yonge line? Haha. This is pretty common in land use planning when dealing with water flow issues: if you're building something upstream that will negatively impact quality of life downstream, the powers that be may force them to upgrade certain aspects of the area downstream in order to mitigate negative effects.

York Region wants a subway? Ok, help pay for upgrades further down the line so that people in Toronto aren't left standing on the platform because people from York Region are filling up the trains.

I think it would make more sense asking York Region to pay for ATC, new trains, new storage facility or some form of direct capacity improvement on the YUS line. It makes no political or even moral sense to ask York Region to pay for a subway that would likely not be used by many York Region residents. i.e. the DRL. Congestion or not.

The Yonge line directly serves both York Region and Toronto residents as it transports residents in Toronto to work out in YR and vice-versa to Toronto.

 

[kd86]

If York Region wants subways let them build their own lines with their own subway cars. The TTC needs to stop bending over backward for the 905 (ie York Region). YRT/Viva should be looking at ways to build their own subway network, with lines connecting to existing ttc subway stations perhapse. There no reason for the TORONTO Transit Commission should be moving into other municipalities, this is not GO transit people. Next thing you know it Durham Region would want the Bloor Danforth line extended into the Pickering-Ajax area.